What Are the Bears' Odds of Finding a Quality Offensive Tackle in Round 1?

This is my fifth and final position evaluation that I will be analyzing ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. I wanted to cover each of the positions that I could see the Bears targeting in the first round.

1. Defensive Tackles

2. Defensive Ends

3. Safeties

4. Cornerbacks

The Bears heavily addressed left tackle through free agency, but there is reason to believe that they could prioritize the position in the draft later this month. They've taken the shotgun approach to fill their weakness (with Ozzy Trapilo's status being murky after rupturing his Achilles in the Wild Card Round against Green Bay), signing three players to one-year deals for 2026.

The future of the left tackle position is very much in doubt, as they seem to have understandable concerns with Trapilo's ability to bounce back from the injury. Ben Johnson said it's difficult to forecast how the position will fare over the next five years at the annual league meetings, so it seems like they're leaving all options on the table when it comes to the draft.

Ryan Poles also vowed to use the Best Player Available (BPA) approach throughout the draft. With a relatively loaded first-round offensive tackle class, it wouldn't be surprising if they decided to go that route early.

How have teams picking offensive tackles at the back end of the first round fared over the past 15 years?

This one produced surprising results. Of the 23 offensive tackles that were drafted in the Bears' range since 2010, over half of them became really solid starters. Four of them became downright elite. That is by far the best hit rate among all the positions that I've analyzed.

Likewise, only six busts got drafted during that span. That's also the best of the five positions I've looked into.

With that said, all of the busts were major misses (besides maybe Germaine Ifedi). Three of them, including Ifedi, Derek Sherrod, and Isaiah Wilson, were also considered massive reaches when they got drafted. All three selections were good examples of a general manager thinking they were outsmarting everyone else, and looking downright silly in the process.

On the other hand, virtually none of the players who lived up to their draft position were considered reaches. The only major draft reach from the group that eventually developed into a solid (albeit far from unspectacular) starter was James Carpenter. Reaching for a first-round offensive lineman is never smart, and this list reinforced that notion.

The fact that six of the hits or mega hits were left tackles was something I wasn't really expecting. Left tackles tend to protect their quarterbacks' blindside (there are only three left-handed quarterbacks in the league), so the top left tackles historically get pushed up the boards in each class. Right tackles tend to be much more devalued in comparison.

I expected this list to include many more right tackles than left tackles, but that really wasn't the case. In fact, 13 of the 23 players included in the study got drafted to play on the left side. In retrospect, it makes some sense considering that the entire first round features players who get pushed to the top of the board.

What does this mean for the Bears chances of drafting a quality starter?