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Sep 7, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) in the first half at Empower Field at Mile High. Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

What Broncos' DVOA Metric Illustrates About Week 1 Enigma

Originally posted on Denver Broncos on SI | By Bob Morris | Last updated Sep 9, 2025 9:43 PM ET

It wasn't a pretty win for the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Of course, some fans would say they'd rather win ugly than lose pretty, but how concerned should Broncos fans be moving forward?

In Sunday's 20-12 win over the Tennessee Titans, the Broncos' defense came up big, but the offense struggled for much of the game. Despite scoring on the opening drive, the Broncos' offense got out of sync, Bo Nix made bad decisions, and it took a couple of big second-half runs to give the unit a spark.

The Broncos have a lot of room for improvement, but the opening game of the regular season has never been the week to truly define what a team will be like for an entire campaign. While there's room for concern, it's not time to panic.

Consider what Aaron Schatz, the man responsible for creating the DVOA advanced metric, has said about Week 1in the past, describing it as the 'National Jump to Conclusions Week,' referring to the tendency for fans to read too much into initial performances.

Broncos' DVOA Ranking

To that end, Schatz released his DVOA ratings for NFL teams after Week 1. The Broncos rank fifth overall, in large part, due to their defense, which was the top-ranked defensive unit in Week 1.

Of course, that brings us back to the 'National Jump to Conclusions Week' description. The Broncos' defense certainly had a great week, but will the unit be historically dominant? That remains to be seen.

And the same applies to the Broncos' offense, which ranked 26th overall, and the 27th-ranked special teams. Neither ranking is good, but did Week 1 forecast how both units will be for the entire season? Again, that remains to be seen.

The Opponents

We can also look at the Titans, whom the Broncos defeated in Week 1. The Titans ranked 28th overall, 32nd in offense, eighth in defense, and second in special teams. Could it be that the Titans are a better defensive team than people thought? Only time will tell.

Then there's the Indianapolis Colts, the Broncos' Week 2 opponent. Indianapolis ranked second overall in DVOA, 10th in offense, second in defense, and 15th in special teams. Once again, it remains to be seen how the Colts will perform for the entire season.

One thing to keep in mind about Week 1 DVOA is that it doesn't adjust for opponent strength. That's because a one-game sample size is too small to determine how good or bad teams actually are.

With that said, we can probably make a couple of assumptions. First, the Colts might have a good defense, which means the Broncos can't afford to have too many mistakes on offense like they had against the Titans.

Second, while the Colts' offense may not be dominant, it could be better than last year. Whether it's quarterback Daniel Jones being a better fit or Anthony Richardson failing to improve as a passer, the Broncos can't take the Colts offense lightly.

The Takeaway: Don't Press the Panic Button

As for the Broncos, when it comes to the offense, it's not time to panic. Nix and company need to show they can correct mistakes, both from a player and coaching standpoint. It might help to simplify the offense a bit for Nix, but make sure he understands that he shouldn't check out of a run play unless he sees the defense is positioned to stop it.

And on defense, there's a lot of room for optimism, but let's not jump ahead of ourselves. We should not assume that the defense can keep bailing out the offense all the time — and that's another reason the offense needs to improve.

I'm still cautiously optimistic that the Broncos can have a successful season and make the playoffs. Week 1 gave both reasons to remain optimistic and reasons to become skeptical.