John Michael Schmitz is only two seasons into being the starting center for the New York Giants, but he may already be at a crossroads in his young NFL career.
At first blush, that may seem ridiculous; after all, two years is hardly enough time to definitively say someone is going to be good or bad.
Then again, Schmitz is not a typical third-year veteran in the NFL. He is already 26 years old, which is as old as left tackle Andrew Thomas, who is entering his sixth year with the team, making Schmitz’s timetable for success much faster than that of players who declared for the draft at younger ages.
There is considerable speculation that he needs to perform well in 2025 to retain his job as the Giants' starting center. What we often fail to hear is what that looks like from the outside looking in.
There will be three key factors that will indicate whether Schmitz has indeed taken the next step in his growth as an NFL center and will be a determining factor in his future with the Giants: size and physicality, cleaner pockets on the interior, and displacing people in the run game.
The first factor, size and physicality, is one where we have seen Schmitz make progress over the first couple of years.
He came into the NFL weighing barely over 300 pounds. While his 26 reps on the bench press were not bad, at that size, it is difficult to stop 330-pound nose guards who bench 225 pounds 35 times.
During his rookie season, he looked physically outmatched. The results were disastrous during his rookie season. He is 20 pounds heavier, and instead of getting ready to run a 40-yard dash, he has been getting ready to block those 330-pound nose guards.
His second season was an improvement, and in year three, this could be his best show.
The second factor, producing cleaner pockets in the interior, was a glaring one early on in his career. As a rookie, Schmitz struggled to keep defenders out of the backfield in pass protection. It was one of the most disturbing things about his struggles.
The Giants drafted him to elevate the offensive line on the interior, and things became worse. In his second year, he improved over what was the worst pass-blocking performance in the NFL as a rookie, but his performance was still substandard.
This season, success will be demonstrated by the ability to stop the interior bull rush and keep defenders on the line of scrimmage. The worst place for a quarterback to get pressure is up the middle in his face.
This will be key to Russell Wilson's success, who has always faced challenges due to his height. If he has space to operate in the pocket, it will speak to Schmitz's improvements in pass protection.
The third factor, run blocking, was a major key to the Giants’ success during the 2022 season. During Schmitz's rookie season, they were unable to move bodies as easily as they had the previous year, and the offense suffered as a result.
Schmitz could not move bodies off the line of scrimmage, and he was unable to open holes for the backs to get through; as a result, everything became a fight for minimal yards.
In 2024, he showed improvement, and the rushing attack improved, but in 2025, you will know Schmitz has taken the next step if we see more guards at the second level, because that means he can move a body without the full assistance of a guard.
Double-team blocks should result in the release of a player to a linebacker. That will unlock more success in the run game and provide the team with more legitimate offensive balance.
It's not too late for Schmitz, and it seems evident he has done everything necessary this offseason to be a better version of himself this coming year. His areas of concern coming into 2025 are so evident that it should not take long to see the improvements.
If Schmitz can become the guy that many believed he could be when he was drafted, the play of the entire team will be elevated as a result. There's no doubt we will see what it looks like.
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