Which Day 3 quarterback could break out in the NFL?

Every few years the NFL sees a quarterback emerge who was taken in the later rounds of the NFL Draft. In the 2022 playoffs, seventh-round quarterback Brock Purdy advanced to the NFC Championship Game, while a pair of fourth-round picks — Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins — fell short. 

Even on the AFC side, seventh-round pick Skylar Thompson and undrafted free agent Tyler Huntley captained their teams from under center.

It's almost impossible to know who can emerge as a late-round sleeper at quarterback, but if we take a look at the situations, skill sets and pathways for the late-round rookies, we can see who has the opportunity to emerge as a steal.

The path to a player's first career start is not always as simple as looking at their talent or draft capital. Last season, both Thompson and Bailey Zappe got their first career starts before Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder or Sam Howell. 

Out of all the Day 3 quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft, the one with the clearest path to their first career start might be Clayton Tune.

Tune was a fifth-round selection by the Arizona Cardinals out of Houston, where he dominated statistically; in 2022, Tune threw for over 4,000 yards and tossed 40 touchdowns. 

His path to the field is centered around franchise quarterback Kyler Murray's injury, which is expected to force him to miss some time in 2023.

On the depth chart, Tune's competition for snaps comes from Colt McCoy, Jeff Driskel and David Blough. McCoy started three games last season as Murray's backup, but he's dealing with an injury of his own that's expected to keep him limited during the offseason. 

This means that Tune's competition could be between Driskel and Blough, a pair of career backups with a combined 18 career starts in nine seasons.

Tune could have the chance to get more offseason reps than the average fifth-round rookie, and if he impresses, he could see the field early and often in the season. At 6-foot-2, he is fairly mobile and shows a proficiency in throwing into the short and intermediate areas of the field. 

With receivers like Marquise Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch, Tune's skill set could match the Cardinals' offensive game plan under a new coaching staff.

Arguably the best late-round quarterback prospect was Fresno State's Jake Haener, who could be the biggest threat to supplant an already established veteran. 

Despite being drafted in the fourth round by the New Orleans Saints, Haener has some of the best throws on tape of any quarterback in the draft. Haener has solid athleticism and reads the field well, he just lacks the ideal size.

Haener was drafted in a situation where he can develop as Derek Carr's backup. However, if Carr struggles at all like he did in 2022, Haener could pressure the team into giving him some reps on the field. 

While Haener might not show elite potential, his toughness and will to win can make him a starting-caliber player, traits that earned him many comparisons to Taylor Heinicke.

Lastly, a player with a mixture of tools and a path to the field is BYU's Jaren Hall, a fifth-round pick by the Vikings. Kirk Cousins is 35 years old and entering a contract year. If the Vikings ever decide it's time to move on from Cousins, Hall could be waiting in the wings developing behind the veteran quarterback. 

Hall is athletic, can throw from different platforms, is creative with the ball and has a strong arm, but he is undersized and has an injury history.

Hall is an intriguing prospect with a chance to be a developmental project who refines his game behind a veteran. Minnesota is an ideal landing spot for him, both because it gives him time to learn and because of the skill players around him. 

With Hall's ability to make nearly any throw, he'd be able to take advantage of the talents of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Dalvin Cook.