Why Cardinals, Kyler Murray Dilemma is So Complicated

The question of moving on from Murray resides within two varying factors: His potential and his salary.

There's no doubting Murray's ability to generate electric plays with his arms or legs — that's been on display through his career in Arizona. However, that hasn't been consistent, and with what's set to be the third coaching staff for Murray since arriving in 2019 raises questions on the franchise quarterback himself.

Murray departing isn't the complicated part. Even if he goes on to find greener pastures such as Geno Smith (Seattle), Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay) and Sam Darnold (Minnesota/Seattle), that in itself shouldn't stop Arizona from moving on from the former No. 1 overall pick.

While the "what if?" game could be played all day, it's pretty clear things haven't unfolded as expected for either side. And that's just fine — this doesn't need to be a messy break-up.

The door doesn't feel 100% closed on his return for next season. Whether it be starter or backup to Jacoby Brissett, there is at least some intrigue into what LaFleur could do with Murray's skillset.

However, the expectation is Murray is shopped on the trade market this offseason. With the NFL scouting combine arriving here in just two weeks, Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort could establish the framework of a deal in Indianapolis — where the rest of the NFL world will be as well.

Murray is due a $19.5 million roster bonus for 2027 that becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2026 NFL league year, which is mid-March. Essentially, we'll know in just over a month if Murray is going to be suiting up for Arizona next season.

The Cardinals surely would prefer to trade Murray, where they'll eat $17.9 million in dead cap at a minimum.

We say "minimum" because the Cardinals will likely need to entice teams to bite on Murray's $230.5 million contract that carries cap hits of $43.5 million and $46.3 million for the final two years of his deal. It's important to note the final year, 2028, is a team-option and Murray's employer at the time can cut him ahead of that season with no dead cap space according to Spotrac.

They can entice said teams by taking on more of Murray's salary to offset some of the incoming money Murray's new team will ingest. By doing so, Ossenfort is likely to gain better draft capital in a trade.

Yet what's fair value for Murray? He's 28 and still in his prime. He's insanely athletic for the quarterback position but hasn't consistently been a good pocket passer or decision-maker. The Cardinals have made the postseason once in his time under center.

Reports of Murray's trade value are across the board. Some say a second or third-round pick while others believe a Day 3 draft selection is all Arizona will gain. You can read our official prediction here.

Beauty will be in the eye of Murray's beholder, which makes his value so volatile depending on the organization and what could be offered. Teams such as the Steelers, Browns, Dolphins, Falcons, VIkings and Jets are rumored to be evaluating outside quarterback options this offseason.

How much do the Cardinals truly care about his trade value? Is Arizona bent on getting Murray out of town at whatever cost possible or does Ossenfort really want to maximize a return? The Cardinals could face those questions if a bidding war doesn't ensue and teams are low-balling on Murray.

Cutting Murray would be the heftiest of decisions, costing the Cardinals $54.7 million in dead cap space for the coming year if designated Pre-June 1. That's not quite record-breaking money thanks to the Denver Broncos doing the same with Russell Wilson a few offseasons ago at $85 million — but it's up there.

Arizona currently has roughly $42 million in cap space entering the offseason and can create more, though that'd be quite the stretch.

It's important to note NFL owners pay the actual cash for dead cap space. Would Michael Bidwill want to pay that sum to Murray on top of the three different head coaches he's currently paying now?

The Cardinals could opt to keep Murray for the future and potentially delay the inevitable departure for another season. Arizona also could press the eject button on Murray at any cost simply to kickstart a post-Murray era.

Factors such as fit on the field, in the locker room, vision for the future, contract and trade value all swirl into a heavily mixed, complicated bag for the Cardinals to sort through with no clear win-win situation at hand.

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