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Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) throws the ball Tuesday, June 10, 2025, during NFL Colts mandatory mini camp at the Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center in Indianapolis. Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Why It’s Too Early to Crown Daniel Jones as the Colts’ Savior

Originally posted on Indianapolis Colts on SI
By Sean Ackerman | Last updated Jun 19, 2025 8:00 AM ET

A quarterback besides Anthony Richardson is taking first-team reps, and for some Indianapolis Colts fans, that's all they want. When Daniel Jones signed a one-year deal in March, all Colts fans knew deep down that he would eventually be praised as a promising new face in the building.

But let's pump the brakes for a minute. While the Colts are right to look for answers at quarterback, buying into the Jones hype this early could lead to more disappointment than progress. Yes, Jones brings experience. Yes, he can run. And yes, he’s shown glimpses of being a serviceable NFL starter. Still, there’s a difference between a quarterback who can keep the offense afloat and one who can elevate a franchise.

In March 2023, Jones inked a four-year deal worth $160 million with the New York Giants. It only took 16 starts from Jones before the Giants decided to cut him and move on to Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock.

Now, the Giants may be occasionally inept, but there's a reason they cut Jones. Simply put, he's not a Super Bowl-caliber player. There was a point when, after Jones signed his extension, he had thrown more pick-6s than touchdown passes to his own receivers.

Since signing a four-year, $160 million contract with Giants before last season, Daniel Jones has thrown more TD passes to the opposition (3 pick 6s) than to his own team (2 TD passes)
— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) September 9, 2024

On top of Jones' history of inadequate play, the Colts, and more specifically Chris Ballard, have a history of picking the wrong guy for the job. Sure, Philip Rivers fit the role for one year. The Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan sagas were two train wrecks that didn't solve any long-term issues. Who's to say Jones' time in Indianapolis will be better than Wentz's and Ryan's?

To be fair, the Colts currently have a deeper receiving corps than Wentz or Ryan ever had. Still, Jones is getting paid to put the ball in the breadbasket, something he's struggled with no matter the weapons. According to Fantasy Points Data, Jones tied Richardson for the lowest depth-adjusted accuracy over expectation (-7.1%) in the league last season.

We have a team of professional charters who grade QB accuracy on every throw.

But it's harder to be accurate on downfield throws.

So, here's depth-adjusted accuracy over expectation.

1st: Tua (+6.3%)
T-last: Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones (-7.1%)#ForTheShoe pic.twitter.com/Y73YtF6Ybj
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 3, 2025

When you think about that stat, you wonder what Ballard was really hoping for when he signed Jones. Those accuracy issues won't magically fix themselves. Nineteen quarterbacks have thrown 2000+ pass attempts since 2019, and among those 19 quarterbacks, Jones has the third-worst completion percentage (64.1%), the worst passer rating (84.3), the lowest touchdown percentage (3.1%), and the lowest passing yards per game (208.3).

To think that Jones' problems have been solved in three months of being with the Colts would be naive. Pairing an organization that has a bad track record of quarterbacks over the past decade with a quarterback who has failed to win games is a match made in hell.

Despite all these numbers, I do think Jones could have slightly improved success in Shane Steichen's system. The Colts were able to knock on the door of the postseason with Gardner Minshew at the helm, and it's possible the Colts choose to run a Minshew-esque system that focuses on easy throws for Jones while adding in more designed quarterback runs.

Last year Anthony Richardson averaged 11.4 air yards/att—#1 by a mile. In Daniel Jones’ best season (2022) he ranked #33.

Discussed how the Colts offense would look different w/ Jones on the pod with @mikegolicjr...

: https://t.co/8TJcdgg6s9

: https://t.co/ePs0hmRwMg pic.twitter.com/p6lKiFQgi6
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) June 12, 2025

If Jones wins the Week 1 job in training camp, fair play to him. The Colts have a relatively inviting season opener against the Miami Dolphins, meaning Jones could capitalize and break a Week 1 curse that's plagued Indy for a decade.

At the end of the day, it's important not to let practice craze get in the way of what has been shown on the field for six straight seasons. If Jones produces on game days, then I'll buy into the hype train. Until then, I'm expecting nothing different than what I've already seen from him in New York. I'd love to see him succeed, but I'm not getting my hopes up again.