
The Green Bay Packers came into Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers as 12.5-point favorites, and a 5-1-1 record, as opposed to the Panthers' 4-4 mark. The Packers ranked sixth in Total DVOA, seventh in Offensive DVOA, and eighth in Defensive DVOA, while the Panthers ranked 24th in Total DVOA, 26th in Offensive DVOA, and 18th in Defensive DVOA.
That the Panthers won the game 16-13 on Ryan Fitzgerald's 49-yard last-second field goal is not a specific indictment of the Packers' process — upsets happen, and the Panthers can be better week to week than their metrics may indicate.
But this Packers team, even with their 5-2-1 record and first-place status in the NFC North, is a tough unit to take seriously when it comes to championship aspirations. The Panthers game showed a ton of weaknesses that have jumped up and bitten this team before.
Through the first eight weeks of the season, Green Bay's 70.0% red zone conversion rate was the NFL's seventh-best. But that same offense could do very little in the red zone on Sunday — the Packers got in the red zone on five of their drives, and converted successfully just once. That 20% rate would be by far the NFL's worst, and there were times when Love and the entire offense just seemed to have an aversion to scoring by any means necessary.
this is what plays on loop in the 4th circle of hell pic.twitter.com/pv2HiQZAyt
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) November 2, 2025
On the Packers' first four red-zone trips, here's how it went: A fumble by rookie receiver Savion Williams, a field goal after two false start penalties and a sack, a field goal to end the first half after a pair of holding penalties, and a turnover on downs.
"We did enough things that we deservedly got our ass beat," head coach Matt LaFleur said postgame. "You've got to maximize those opportunities. If you don't, then you're sitting here with 13 points. I would say nine times out of 10, you hold somebody under 20 points, you should win the game."
Quarterback Jordan Love, who completed 26 of 37 passes for 273 yards, no touchdowns, one interception (as well as the near-interception on the play we've already shown), agreed with the bleak outlook.
"It's very frustrating," Love said. "I think everybody was feeling that as an offense. We were doing it to ourselves more than anything, too. But I feel like we're hurting our defense as well."
Love's interception that the Panthers actually caught was especially disconcerting — one of his patented fadeaway jumpers (this one into triple coverage); it was basically an arm punt.
Big play Tre back at it again
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) November 2, 2025
: Fox pic.twitter.com/qJD3VXUvC7
Just as bad was the Packers' defense, a group that knew the Panthers would be leading with the run game. Quarterback Bryce Young completed just 11 of 20 passes for 102 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 48.3. That should have been enough to keep the Panthers at bay, except for the 25 carries, 130 yards, and two touchdowns sported by Carolina rushing sensation Rico Dowdle.
Rico Dowdle Week 9 Highlights vs the #Packers
— IAmWestsideFetti (@4MR_Fetti) November 3, 2025
• 25 carries
• 130 Rushing
• 5.2 YPC
• 2 TDs#Panthers Win pic.twitter.com/sIyESpaJkK
"They came in and played the game they wanted to play," LaFleur said of the Panthers' overall plan. "They wanted to play keep away, run the football, make it just a game where we have to consistently execute on offense, and they did it better than we did."
Time of possession wasn't really a factor — the Packers actually led that category, 30:10 to 29:50 — but the overall execution definitely went in Carolina's favor.
Now, after playing with their food in this game, the Packers welcome the Philadelphia Eagles to Lambeau Field on Monday Night Football in Week 10. These are the same Eagles that beat Green Bay 22-10 in the wild-card round last season, and these Packers don't look capable of putting up a better fight.
Not what you want from a team that was supposed to be among the NFL's best in 2025.
"I expect us to attack this head-on," LaFleur said of the future. "It's tough. It's a tough pill to swallow. I don't think it was for a lack of effort or anything like that. We have to get back to making sure that we have a solid week of practice. And I know that's probably not the sexiest answer that everybody wants to hear, but that's the reality. You lose, you've got to go back to the drawing board, and you've got to go back to work."
Oh, there's also the matter of tight end Tucker Kraft, who suffered a knee injury in the third quarter of this game. LaFleur said that the injury "does not look good," and that leaves Love without his most consistent and efficient target for who knows how long.
"I know how much Tuck puts into this and he's a big part of our team, a great leader, and it's hard to replace that," LaFleur said. "But that happens with teams across the league. It's one of those things that you've got to be able to overcome."
The Packers have a lot to overcome for a team that looks pretty good on the surface. Chief among the things on the list is to start putting together repeatable performances that would lead to anybody concluding that this is more than a one-hit wonder in the playoffs. These Packers haven't made it past the divisional round of the playoffs since 2021, and what's there to make us believe this iteration to be different?
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