Why McDaniel's Job Status Remains a Mystery

To borrow from an old rock song, will he stay or will he go?

The speculation around head coach Mike McDaniel and whether he will retain his status as Miami Dolphins head coach after the 2025 season is running rampant more than ever and clearly the focal point for the franchise over the next several weeks.

And to borrow from an old movie, McDaniel's status remains a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

Conflicting reports over the past couple of days from prominent national reporters Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport didn't help bring any clarity, with Rapoport saying Sunday that all indications were that Dolphins owner Stephen Ross would bring back McDaniel for a fifth season but Schefter saying on the Pat McAfee Show on Monday that no decision has been made and it would be wrong to suggest any decision has been made.

For sure, the Dolphins' 24-point loss against the Cincinnati Bengals wasn't exactly the kind of showing that's going to convince Ross it's the right move to bring back McDaniel.

And if the Dolphins have another performance like that where they give up 35 unanswered points in one or both of the remaining two games, it's going to be awfully difficult for Ross to justify running it back with McDaniel.

Truth is, it already may be difficult.

When he released his now-famous statement in the hours after the disappointing 2024 season announcing he was retaining McDaniel and GM Chris Grier, Ross included these words, "Continuity in leadership is not to be confused with an acceptance that status quo is good enough. We will take a hard look at where we have fallen shot and make the necessary changes to deliver our ultimate goal of building and sustaining a winning team that competes for championships.”

In terms of their record, the Dolphins will be lucky to retain the status quo after already matching their loss total of nine with that humbling loss against the Bengals.

The next question is what "necessary changes" need to be made to deliver the "ultimate goal of building and sustaining a winning team that competes for championships."

It's pretty safe to say the Dolphins are very far from being a team that competes for championships, and there's always been one change with the firing of Grier, another on the way with the seemingly likely departure of QB Tua Tagovailoa, and maybe McDaniel is yet another necessary change.

Or maybe Ross decides that McDaniel is more part of the solution than he's part of the problem and he runs it back.

At this time, we'd suggest it's still more likely than not that Ross does bring back McDaniel, though the Cincinnati game has reduced the percentage of that happening.

In explaining again Monday why he benched Tua in favor of Quinn Ewers saying he felt the move gave the team the best chance to win, McDaniel came up with this great line, "I don’t play Monopoly with people’s careers."

In those final two games, McDaniel better make sure he's not playing Monopoly with his own career.

THE NFL PRECEDENT AGAINST McDANIEL

The loss against the Bengals assured the Dolphins of having their second consecutive losing season, making McDaniel the 21st head coach since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to have a losing record in both his third and fourth full seasons with a team.

Of those 21, four of them (19 percent) were brought back for a fifth season.

Those four included David Shula — yes, the son of late, great Don Shula — with the Cincinnati Bengals in the 1990s, Dan Reeves with the Atlanta Falcons in the late 1990s, Steve Mariucci with the San Francisco 49ers also in the late 1990s, and most recently Jeff Fisher of the Los Angeles Rams.

Of those four, Shula and Fisher didn't make it through their fifth season.

The closest comparison here for McDaniel, though, might be Mariucci, but with a caveat.

Mariucci is the only one of the four coaches who produced a winning record in each of his first two seasons before losing records in Years 3-4. The caveat is that Mariucci took over as head coach after the 49ers had 14 consecutive double-digit-win seasons, whereas the Dolphins had two winning seasons (10-6 and 9-8) before McDaniel took over.

As it stands, McDaniel is about to become the first Dolphins head coach to be on the job for at least four full seasons since Dave Wannstedt, who took over in 2000 and lasted until he was fired after nine games in the 2004 season.

The only other Dolphins coaches with at least four full seasons were Jimmy Johnson, Don Shula and original head coach George Wilson. Wilson had a losing record in each of his four seasons, but those were the first four years in franchise history and the Dolphins also played in the AFL before Shula arrived in 1970.

For the record, the 17 coaches who were let go after a losing record in their third and fourth full seasons were:

Jim Dooley with the Chicago Bears (1971)
Dan Devine with the Green Bay Packers (1974)
Neill Armstrong with the Chicago Bears (1981)
Dan Henning with the Atlanta Falcons (1986)
Forrest Gregg with the Green Bay Packers (1987)
Lindy Infante with the Green Bay Packers (1991)
Joe Bugel with the Arizona Cardinals (1993)
Jerry Glanville with the Atlanta Falcons (1993)
Sam Wyche with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1995)
Dan Reeves with the New York Giants (1996)
Ray Rhodes with the Philadelphia Eagles (1998)
Dom Capers with the Carolina Panthers (1998)
Dom Capers with the Houston Texans (2005)
Mike McCoy with the San Diego Chargers (2016)
Todd Bowles with the New York Jets (last season in 2018)
Anthony Lynn with the L.A. Chargers (2020)
Doug Marrone with the Jacksonville Jaguars (2020)