Why you should be a believer in the Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons have spent years hovering in the NFL's middle class.

They have not been bad enough to rebuild. They have not been good enough to make the playoffs. Atlanta has finished with seven or eight wins in each of the past five seasons and has not reached the postseason since 2017.

That makes 2026 a pivotal season.

The Falcons have a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski, a new general manager in Ian Cunningham and two quarterbacks competing for the starting job. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical.

There are also plenty of reasons to believe Atlanta can finally break through.

The quarterback situation is obviously the biggest question.

Michael Penix Jr. showed promise as a rookie before injuries interrupted his development. Tua Tagovailoa, meanwhile, enters Atlanta after a disappointing final season in Miami, but has already demonstrated that he can be an extremely efficient quarterback when healthy.

The Falcons' decision to sign Tagovailoa gives them legitimate insurance while Penix continues his development. 

If either quarterback can provide even above-average play, Atlanta's ceiling rises considerably.

Running back Bijan Robinson is coming off an All-Pro season in which he led the NFL with 2,298 scrimmage yards. He also recorded seven games with at least 150 total yards.

Now he gets to work with Stefanski, whose offenses have historically placed a major emphasis on the running game.

The Falcons also have Drake London and Kyle Pitts, giving whoever wins the quarterback competition an impressive group of weapons.

Atlanta doesn't need its quarterback to become an MVP candidate. It needs him to get the ball to its playmakers.

Stefanski has won two NFL Coach of the Year awards and brings a proven offensive philosophy to Atlanta. He also inherits a roster with considerably more talent than his previous situation in Cleveland had.

Perhaps most importantly, Stefanski retained Jeff Ulbrich as defensive coordinator.

Ulbrich's defense made a major jump last season, producing a franchise-record 57 sacks, second most  in the NFL. The secondary also remains promising, with Jessie Bates III and Xavier Watts anchoring the back end.

That gives Atlanta a foundation on both sides of the ball.

The NFC South has improved, but there is no overwhelming favorite. Atlanta finished tied with Tampa Bay and Carolina at 8-9 last season, meaning the division could once again come down to a handful of games.

The Falcons also have a relatively favorable opportunity if their new regime clicks quickly.

A 10-7 season is a realistic ceiling, and that could be enough to win the division and end Atlanta's eight-year playoff drought.

The Falcons need Robinson to remain elite, London and Pitts to stay healthy, the defense to maintain its improvement and either Penix or Tagovailoa to provide competent quarterback play.

That's a lot of "ifs," but it's also a much more reasonable path than the Falcons' recent history suggests.