Zach's back, and the Jets look good ATS

We've nearly reached October, and there's no better way to spend a fall weekend than watching football and cheering on some bets. There's plenty to like on the gridiron this weekend, so let's touch on a few looks.

NFL pick against the spread

We can't take credit for this, as it comes from BetMGM and Action Network, but since 2003, teams that start 3-0 ATS have covered in Week 4 at just a 40% rate. The Dolphins were one of those 3-0 teams, and they did indeed fail to cover last night. There are two teams on Sunday that this applies to: the Lions (-4) at home against the Seahawks, and the Falcons (+1) hosting the Browns. Both Detroit and Atlanta have covered every week so far. We're more inclined to believe Cleveland wins than Seattle keeps it close, but it's a nugget we wanted to share here.

New York Jets (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Call us crazy, but we're excited for Zach Wilson's debut this weekend. Wilson has shown the arm strength and mobility that makes a successful quarterback in this league, and this Jets' offense has legitimate weapons to make his life a lot easier. The Steelers' defense is a solid unit, but they've had their leaks without TJ Watt, and Mitchell Trubisky hasn't been too inspiring to start the year. Give us the fresh energy of Wilson paired with Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and Breece Hall to keep this game close and maybe even pull the upset.

NFL Prop Pick for Sunday

It's still early in the year, but it's good to see when a defense picks up right where they left off in 2021. Seeing a weakness from last season rear its head again makes us confident that we can trust the results we've gotten through three weeks. The defense we're referencing here is Baltimore, specifically its secondary. Last season, the Ravens allowed the most passing yards per game, and as we head into Week 4, they are far and away the most generous defense for yards through the air, allowing 353.3 per game. The next closest team is Miami at 299.3.

Gabriel Davis over 48.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

In the two games Davis has played, he has barely come off the field, playing 98% and 96% of the total offensive snaps this season. He's a clear starter in this offense opposite Stefon Diggs, and a week removed from injury, he should be able to make his plays down the field. Up to this point, the top two receivers who have faced the Ravens have all gone over their receiving yardage totals. A perfect 6-0. Last week, DeVante Parker exploded for 156 yards. Two weeks ago, both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle finished with 170+ receiving yards. This Baltimore defense gets gashed deep, and Davis is the vertical threat here. Bet on Davis for a big game Sunday.

College football teaser

Our own Jared Shlensky cooked us up a teaser bet for college football that is too good to not highlight here. It's built around the undefeated Minnesota Gophers against Purdue. Minnesota is fresh off a massive 34-7 road win over Michigan State while Purdue hasn't looked very strong to start the year. The second leg is Kentucky against Ole Miss, thanks to the return of star running back Chris Rodriguez against a vulnerable run defense. The bet moves Minnesota -12 to Minnesota -6 and Kentucky +7 to Kentucky +13. Combined, the odds are +110 on Barstool, a bet worth making.

In the news ...

Rough night in the NFL as Tua Tagovailoa suffers scary injury  — While he was later released from the hospital and able to fly home with the team, Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a scary moment on the field when his head hit the ground hard in the second quarter last night. This is his second injury in five days, and it has many up in arms about why he was allowed to play so soon. This is a situation to monitor in Miami. We are hoping for the best for Tua.

Critical Mets-Braves series begins tonight — It's very likely that whoever takes this series between the Mets and Braves this weekend will win the National League East. The Mets are in the stronger position, if they win just two games this weekend, it's all but over for the division title. Avoiding the wild-card round is a massive advantage to rest all of your pitchers before the Divisional Series begins. The Mets are +250 to win the National League Pennant, and the Braves are behind them at +400.

Aaron Judge's quest for home run No. 62 returns home for the weekend — If ever Judge is going to hit homer 62, this weekend is the time to do it, as it's the last three regular-season home games in New York. It's a series against Baltimore, and in 15 games against the Orioles this season, Judge has nine total homers. Keep your eyes on sportsbook promotions built around Judge today. His odds are currently around +200 to hit a HR tonight.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll