15 Minutes of Flame: Who’s afraid of Dustin Wolf?

Pragmatism is sobering:

So, who’s afraid of the big bad wolf? X Users @HockeyShauny and @RebelliousWØLF, welcome to your 15 minutes of Flame.

Calgary Flames GM Craig Conroy made a statement last season when he traded Elias Lindholm, Nikita Zadorov, Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin, Andrew Mangiapane and Jacob Markstrom. The team was going to turn to the youth to lead them into a brighter future. This was an exciting time to be a fan because, even if the on-ice results suffered, at least there would be new prospects to analyze and over-analyze. In fact, for a certain cross-section of the fan base, the intentional regression of the on-ice product was their very source of glee. They had called on the GM to make the tough decision to turn the veterans into prospects and draft capital. It was a move they felt was long overdue.

It may never be named rebuild by the management group but Conroy had set about remaking the roster. There was unspoken acknowledgement that this team might have to get worse in order to get better. The only problem with that being that the Flames didn’t get worse and the emergence of Dustin Wolf hasn’t exactly fit the narrative either. The Flames currently sit in the second wildcard spot, two points ahead of last year’s total with the same number of games played. The Flames ended the 2023-24 season with a .494 points percentage which is significantly lower than the .557% they presently hold. Did Conroy and co. accidentally refresh the roster into playoff contender? Over one offseason?  Or is this simply confirmation of HockeyShauny’s fears of unending mediocrity?

The Flames certainly have had a knack for finishing in the middle of the league standings and then exiting early in the playoffs. Since the 1989 Stanley Cup championship they have only four top-5 finishes and have only hit the bottom-5 twice. This has likely limited their opportunities to acquire exceptional prospects while simultaneously rendering them unable to rise to the challenge as serious, consistent cup contenders.

So, what does it actually take to rebuild as a winner? There have been only been 18 unique cup winners since 1989. If you eliminate the teams who won only once in that time span you are left with 7 franchises: Chicago, Pittsburgh, Colorado, Detroit, New Jersey, Los Angeles, and Tampa Bay. Those teams have won 23 championships combined while averaging just under eleven top-10 and just under six top-5 draft picks.

Here is a visual of what that looks like:

What does this tell us about winning?

Well, for one, Pittsburgh had time to be a winner, bottom out, and then return to glory. As did Colorado and Tampa Bay. Chicago and Los Angeles both broke through after many years of little to no success. Detroit and New Jersey built teams with longevity that were able to contend for around a decade. Each case isn’t as simple as a team being put on the back of their top tier draft picks (Detroit bucks the trend most obviously) but there are a number of those winning teams that were exactly that: teams crafted around an elite player who was insulated by other elite or above-average players.

Calgary has selected a top-10 draft pick ten times in their history, all after the 1989 season. It isn’t that they have never had elite players but that that right mix of high-end talent with a supporting cast seemingly always eludes them. Jarome Iginla never found the right fit at centre, Johnny Gaudreau elevated his line-mates but until Matthew Tkachuk came along he never really played with someone of his calibre and by the time they paired up the team was lacking the elite goaltending they had enjoyed two decades earlier. The multiple-Cup champions all had greater opportunity to draft star players because they simply held more picks where stars are typically drafted. A team with quality scouts will take a chance on an undersized winger in the second round or an undersized goaltender in the seventh but in a perfect world those players get to play with other established talent.

Pragmatically speaking, there is a correlation between bottoming out for multiple years and building a lasting winner in the NHL. The GM has stripped the team down to its foundation; all that needs to happen now is for everything to go exactly according to plan.

Enter Dustin Wolf.  To the credit of his sterling home record (11-01-01) the Flames continue to flirt with a playoff berth. HockeyShauny is begging for the team to “tank” but as RebelliousWØLF has noted Wolf seems to be impervious to that sort of forethought. He is focused on the here and now. What else would you expect from a player trying to make a name for himself? He paid his dues and then some with his time in the AHL. He hasn’t arrived here to pull punches and neither have any other members of this team. It should be hard to root against the team that you love. When Wolf gets a start, how can you not root for his positive energy?

He’s been underestimated his whole career and now he’s on your favourite team proving the world wrong again. It is self-flagellation if you let your appreciation be poisoned by your need to see the team lose.

Again, who is afraid of Dustin Wolf? Opponents entering the Saddledome or his own fans?

The Flames find themselves in familiar territory. They are unlikely to pick in the top-5 and are not considered a legitimate Cup contender. What is unfamiliar is the youthful roster making something out of nothing. HockeyShauny mentions that the players acquired through the draft need to be elite and committed to staying in Calgary long-term. If the current youth movement is made to feel expendable will that ingratiate them to the city? It will be hard to feel at home when they did their job and then had to endure fans asking them to not do it quite so well.

The optimist’s outlook sees a team that could make the playoffs while basking in the comfort of the unknown: “if they just get in anything can happen!”  When you devote that much time to your team it becomes harder and harder not to cheer for them to win.

The pragmatic view sees another burnt year of the contracts of effective but older players (re: Rasmus Andersson & MacKenzie Weegar) without tangible rewards like premium draft picks or playoff success. These fans are fighting against their basest instincts in the hopes that they will get to see their team be champions again. It isn’t spite against the current state of affairs that they dread. It is the monotony of the past three-and-half decades that they are trying to escape.

There are legitimate thoughts from both sides of the aisle here… so, maybe I accomplished nothing?

I will leave you with this: are you optimistic or pragmatic?

If you’d like to see someone have their 15 Minutes of Flame you can find me @ fifteenmin-flame.bsky.social or fifteenmin.flame@gmail.com.

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