2023-24 Calder Trophy Tracker

Bedard also remains the Blackhawks’ most efficient five-on-five scorer, averaging 2.25 points per 60 minutes. That speaks to the Blackhawks’ depleted roster, especially with Taylor Hall also out long-term with a knee injury. 

Not only does Bedard have some metrics that show his positive value to the team, but the eye test backs how well he was playing before the injury. He has a plus shot, and it should only get better as he matures and adds more strength to his frame. The fact that no one has yet pulled away in the Calder Trophy race suggests he’ll still be in it at the end of the season, but it’ll be a close call if he wins it. 

Luke Hughes

The New Jersey Devils have a couple of impressive rookie defensemen logging big minutes, especially with the significant injuries to Jonas Siegenthaler and Dougie Hamilton. Luke Hughes, the youngest of the Hughes brothers, is one of them, and he’s living up to the hype of being a former fourth-overall pick. 

Hughes’ counting totals — 26 points in 47 games — are a touch worse than Faber’s. But plenty of metrics show Hughes has been playing well ahead of where he should be for a 20-year-old defenseman in the NHL. And even then, his 26 points in 47 games have him on pace to finish with 45.  

Hughes’ play has been worth a total xGAR of 9.1, placing him 19th among all NHL defensemen, not just rookies. His play has been a bit more balanced than Faber’s, too. Hughes has added positive value offensively at even strength and has fit in nearly perfectly on the Devils’ first power-play unit. 

Where Hughes could stand to improve is defensively, but for a 20-year-old rookie, he has not been a defensive liability; his even-strength defense has been worth an xGAR of 0.7. I don’t think he’ll win the Calder, but he should get plenty of top-three votes. And who knows, a run after the All-Star break could get him in the conversation for first place, especially if the Devils get healthy. 

Adam Fantilli

After a slow start to the season, Adam Fantilli has picked it up and gotten himself in the Calder convo. I’d still consider him outside the top three, but he is trending in the right direction. With 12 goals and 27 points in 48 games, he’s now on pace for 21 goals and 46 points in 82 games. 

Fantilli’s metrics aren’t as favorable as the first three rookies named here, but he’s still played well for a Columbus Blue Jackets team that will likely be drafting in the top three in June. He’s been one of the Blue Jackets’ most efficient five-on-five scorers, averaging 2.08 points per 60 minutes. 

That kind of five-on-five production is what you expect from top-line players. Assuming he continues at a similar clip, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his point totals continue to climb as the season progresses. The only thing working against him is the Blue Jackets don’t have much talent for him to work with, but he is still playing well. 

Marco Rossi

Faber’s teammate with the Wild, Marco Rossi has taken a significant step forward in his development this season. He’s third in rookie scoring, with 28 points in 49 games, placing him just behind Faber and Bedard. That puts him on pace to finish with 47 points. 

Not much has gone right for the Wild this season, but the play of Faber and Rossi has been encouraging. Rossi’s even-strength offense has been worth an xGAR of 6.1, while his overall play has been worth a total xGAR of 7.7. He’s been the Wild’s most efficient five-on-five scorer, averaging 2.17 points per 60 minutes. 

While offense is the name of the game with Rossi, his two-way game has been solid for a rookie forward playing his first full season in the NHL. Could he get top-three votes? It wouldn’t surprise me, but I’d say he’s on the outside looking in like Fantilli. Still, he has a good shot at ending up in the top five. 

Who Will Break Away From the Pack?

There are no clear frontrunners for the Calder Trophy, even with Bedard sidelined with an injury. Faber is probably No. 1 in many voters’ eyes, but I’m not sure it’s that clear. Bedard still has a strong case for it, while Hughes has played well.  

There’s also plenty of time for Fantilli and Rossi to go on a run and make cases for themselves. With most teams having around 35 games left on their schedules coming out of the All-Star break, the race for the Calder should heat up to close out the 2023-24 season. 

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Advanced stats from Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick