2023-24 Selke Trophy Tracker: All-Star Break Update

Even when not going up against elite competition, Suzuki has played against the middle of the lineup 37.5 percent of the time. The fact he’s putting up the defensive impacts he is on a team as porous defensively as the Canadiens is quite impressive, given his usage. 

I think voters will look at where the Canadiens are in the standings and possibly shrug off how good Suzuki has been defensively. But he should at least be in the conversation for a top-five spot in the race and, frankly, the top three. 

Jordan Staal

Jordan Staal’s offensive production may be declining, but he is still one of the best defensive forwards in the game. In fact, there’s good reason to believe that he has been the best defensive forward in the NHL this season and that he should be the front-runner for the Selke heading into the All-Star Break. 

Staal’s even-strength defense has been worth an xGAR of 4.2, ranked ninth in the NHL among all forwards. He has an expected goals share (xG%) of 63.5 percent, and his defensive game is a significant reason for that. The Carolina Hurricanes are allowing next to nothing when he’s on the ice at five-on-five, giving up just 1.73 expected goals per 60 minutes. 

The Hurricanes have been giving Staal some extreme usage, too. He’s played 46.3 percent of his minutes against elite competition and 36.4 percent against the middle of the lineup. Essentially, the Hurricanes are hard-matching him against teams’ top two lines whenever he’s on the ice. And his impacts in those minutes have been nothing short of superb:

It’ll be interesting to see how voters feel about Staal once the season concludes. If he keeps up the defensive stats he’s posting, he should be the favorite for the Selke Trophy. A couple of other Hurricanes forwards could find themselves as candidates. But since Staal is a center, he’ll likely receive the recognition. 

Aleksander Barkov

Notoriously labeled as the most underrated forward in the NHL year in and year out (is he really that underrated if that’s the case), Barkov is having quite the season for the Panthers. Reinhart has played his part, but so has Barkov, who’s always had the stout two-way reputation. 

Barkov’s all-around defensive game has been worth an actual GAR of 3.6, ranked in the top 20 of the NHL for all forwards. He plays on the penalty kill, though he has logged less time shorthanded (about 81 minutes) than Reinhart. 

Don’t get me wrong. Barkov has been stout defensively, but his defensive impacts aren’t otherworldly. It feels like the same situation when Drew Doughty won the Norris Trophy a few years back. It was “his year.”

I think what gives Barkov a legitimate chance at the Selke is he plays some difficult minutes, too. He’s played 42.2 percent of his minutes against elite competition and 38.6 percent against the middle of the lineup. That’s not easy ice time, and the Panthers have been better defensively with him on the ice compared to when he’s off. Voters will recognize that, and it wouldn’t be ludicrous to say he deserves consideration. 

Brandon Hagel

Another winger in the Selke conversation? Alex, stop it. You’re crazy. But Brandon Hagel has had a terrific season for the Tampa Bay Lightning and deserves some consideration for the Selke Trophy. His overall defensive game has been worth an actual GAR of 4.7, placing him sixth among all forwards. 

Hagel has gotten the job done at even strength, with his defensive game worth a GAR of 3.4, close to his xGAR of 3.7. He plays on the penalty kill and has provided positive value to the Lightning shorthanded. 

Hagel’s minutes have not been the easiest, either. He’s played the most difficult assignments of any Lightning forward, logging 40.9 percent of his ice time against elite competition. When looking at his RAPM chart, he’s had a significant positive impact on suppressing quality and quantity at even strength (xGA/60, CA/60):

Hagel may not get much Selke consideration because I think wingers get unfairly overlooked (the same applies to Reinhart). But his play warrants him being in the conversation as we approach the All-Star Break. 

Honorable Mentions

Among the Hurricanes forwards who could receive Selke consideration are Jordan Martinook and Jack Drury. Martinook’s impacts and ice time against elite competition are nearly identical to Staal’s, while Drury’s strength has been his defensive game, specifically at even strength. 

Jason Robertson is having an outstanding year defensively, but he doesn’t log the same difficult minutes that other forwards mentioned here have. This applies to Marcus Foligno, who’s always one of the top defensive forwards in the league, and Adam Lowry. 

But the fact these players have cases for the Selke should make it an interesting race during the stretch run. With Bergeron retired, it’s anyone’s game, and it wouldn’t take much for someone like Martinook or Lowry to receive more consideration when we update this post around a month from now. 

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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Puck IQ