2025-26 Ivan Demidov Montreal Canadiens Rookie Point Projection

Okay, we are back, and it is time for Ivan Demidov 2025-26 Montreal Canadiens point projection. You know, the man with the quick mitts and when it comes to point estimates, you know you’re coming in with a high ceiling. Whenever someone comes into a season with more career playoff games than regular season games, you’re already light years ahead of the curve. So, let’s discuss how Demidov will get it done at the NHL level in 2025-26 for the Canadiens.

Ivan Demidov‘s 2025-26 Point Total Projection

If we journey back to the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, it was surprising that Demidov had dropped to five. The Habs were lucky for a player of his skill to still be available when their pick came up. And there was some questions what the future may hold, when it came to his arrival time in North America. However, at this point, from the small sample size of Demidov in the NHL, plus all the highlights, it seems we are in for a real treat. Perhaps he is the type of difference maker that helped really accelerate the organizational rebuild as a whole.

Furthermore, playing in the KHL in 2024-25 with St. Petersburg SKA, he had 19 goals, 30 assists, and 49 points in 65 games. That is a tough feat, as you are in rare territory having that level of productivity in a notoriously veteran-favoured league. One comparable, who is as you’d expect almost, Kirill Kaprizov. As a 19-year-old, he had 20 goals, 22 assists, and 42 points, in 49 games for Ufa Salavat Yulayev. That’s a somewhat similar points-per-game as Demidov had with 49 games in 65 games.

Discussing Demidov’s Deployment and Ice Time Distribution

Where do we go from here you’re thinking? Let’s talk his situation in Montreal this year. Demidov is likely locked in on near top power play minutes. Don’t forget, he’s still only played two career regular season NHL games. Anything is possible, as you’d expect. Moreover, there’s no reason to think that Demidov can’t light the lamp. He’s done it at every level.

It is always nice to consider your linemates. On the Canadiens second line, Demidov is going to get his pick of plenty of offensive talent. Alex Newhook, Patrik Laine, Kirby Dach are all candidates on his line. Yet, guys like Josh Anderson and Joe Veleno could also step up. Needless to say, it will be a dynamic situation. Even though there’s likely not room, no one would say that Demidov would look out of place on an NHL first line, at least eventually. Either way, that is something to say for a guy that has less than ten games under his belt.

In terms of ice time distribution, as we did allude to, Demidov should get pretty close to top power play minutes. Does he get as much as Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki, or Lane Hutson? Probably, an argument could be made either way in some cases, but Demidov does possess very high skill. The point is, he would succeed in the role it would seem, given his elite talent. We’re not saying he’s a can’t miss, but you take the under, eh?

The main counterargument to Demidov playing top power play is that this is only his first season in the NHL. However, exceptions could always be made, such was the case for Lane Hutson last season on the Canadiens power play, as a defenceman no less.

The Crossover Between the KHL and NHL

Okay, next what we did, is try some creative data analysis. We didn’t go through all current NHLers, but some of the top active Russian scorers. We would think that given Demidov’s potential star qualities, that you could stick to mid-to-high-end performers as a significant factor in estimating his career projections.

In order to help paint a picture for Demidov’s hockey background translating into NHL rookie success, we have selected some of the top active-Russian NHLers who played a full season in the KHL and then had a strong NHL campaign in their first year in the league. The key point was that we tried to select players who played a full KHL followed by a full NHL season, for the most part.

Therefore, just to explain, we didn’t include guys like Nikita Kucherov or Andrei Svechnikov. The reasoning was quite simply they had formal North American training prior to the NHL. However, that idea that is at play, since Demidov tends to be younger than the players with the criteria we selected of having played a full KHL season prior to coming to the NHL for a full year, that his age is an influencing factor that could include players that played junior in the CHL or Russia. A much bigger subset.

The idea is, we are talking about the stars of our game. That Demidov no doubt has the ability to attain. You knew if they went this route, they were going to stick.

Demidov is in Some Interesting Company

Artemi Panarin had plenty of experience playing professional. In his last season in the KHL, with SKA Saint Petersburg, he managed 26 goals, 36 assists for 62 points in 54 games. Then, his first full NHL season, 2015-16 as a 24-year-old, he had a big year. He registered 30 goals, 47 assists, for 77 points in 80 games for the Chicago Blackhawks. His career-high 120-point breakout came back in only 2023-24.

Evgeni Malkin, in 2005-06, he played with Magnitogorsk Metallurg, and recorded 21 goals, 26 assists, for 47 points in 46 games. The next season, his rookie NHL campaign with the Pittsburgh Penguins, he had a big year. In 2006-07, as a 20-year-old, Geno netted 33, added 52 assists, for a total of 85 points in 78 games. We mentioned him previously, but Kirill Kaprizov was 22 when he had 57 games, 33 goals, 29 assists, totaling 62 points for CSKA Moscow. He was more-than-ready for the NHL, and had 27 goals and 24 assists in 55 games for the Minnesota Wild in 2020-21.

Another player to include in our recap is Pavel Buchnevich. At 20-years-old, with two-KHL teams combined, he had 58 games played, 16 goals with 21 assists. Then, in 2016-17 for the New York Rangers he had 41 games, eight goals, 12 assists, for 20 points. Also, he had suited up in four games for the AHL’s Hartford Wolf pack.

Going Through Similar KHL-to-NHL Transition Careers and Tarasenko

Vladimir Tarasenko turned 21 in December of the 2012-13 season. He played 31 games that year with St. Petersburg SKA, recording 14 goals, 18 assists, for 32 points. That was the labour dispute season for the NHL, and managed 38 NHL games in what would go down as his rookie campaign. He was off and running, as he recorded eight goals and 11 assists in those games. He scored 21 the following NHL campaign. Then, over a five-year-stretch, he averaged 36.4 goals. He was also incredibly healthy, and oh yeah, the 2019 Stanley Cup to cap it off.

Kirill Marchenko, in 2021-22, as a 21-year-old played 39 games for St. Petersburgh SKA of the KHL recording 12 goals, eight assists in 39 games. Then, the next year he was over a point-a-game at the AHL level, with 19 points in 16 games. With the Columbus Blue Jackets for 59 games, he had 21 goals, but just four assists. Now he has continued to develop. In 2024-25, he had 31 goals, 43 assists for 74 points n 79 games, and is on the verge of a breakout. But on a pace like that, even just maintaining, is the sign of a bigger, overall career progression.

Andrei Kuzmenko turned 26 in 2021-22 with St. Petersburg SKA and had 20 goals, 33 assists in 45 games played. Now, he has fallen off a bit, but he had a big rookie NHL campaign, with 39 goals and 35 assists in 81 contests for the Vancouver Canucks in 2022-23.

How About Some Great 8

We were trying not to bias the data, but let’s include the Great 8 anyway. Alex Ovechkin 19-year-old campaign, had a stat-line of 37 games played, 13 goals and 14 assists playing on Moscow Dynamo. Then, he played in his rookie NHL season, the 2005-06 season. That season, with the Washington Capitals, he exploded, stealing the Calder Trophy away from Sidney Crosby. He finished with 52 goals and 54 assists in 81 games.

A Great 2024-25 NHL Rookie

Matvei Michkov is going to represent a great comparable actually. With Sochi HC 2023-24, he turned 19 during the season. So, that similar age factor itself, is a strong reason he compares to Demidov. Anyway, in his last KHL season, he recorded 19 goals and 22 assists in 47 games. Eerily similar to Kaprizov’s 42 points in 49 games. In any case, last year, Michkov had a very professional first year as an NHL sniper. He tallied 26 goals, added 37 assists through 80 games.

Next up is Ilya Mikheyev, who at 24-years-old finished his KHL run at Omsk Avangard. There, he had 62 games played, with 23 goals and 22 assists. Then, in 2019-20 with the Toronto Maple Leafs, he played 39 games, and had eight goals and 15 assists.

The Summary of the Data Analysis

The takeaway is that, if we were indeed considering the above-average players, as would make sense given Demidov’s upside, he has a very small and unique set of comparable players. Guys like Malkin, Ovechkin, and Michkov, that’s it. Also, the similarities to Michkov’s progression is, well maybe not uncanny, but you know, similar. Also, as an observation from the entire class, playing a full season should safely get you to 20 goals. A few like Tarasenko, Mikheyev, and Buchnevich didn’t have the goal amount, but only played half seasons, too. Yes, but this Montreal in 2025-26, so what else do we have to consider?

Well Sportsbooks were shooting at the dartboard on this one. Let’s be honest, a 58.5 over/under for total points, is a seemingly random number.

The Final Call

However, if you go across the league, at the top second-line point getters, You’d see it probably isn’t far off the mean. Surely, teams would love to have their second line with more points than that amount. Conversely, look at players who come under that amount, and still regarded as solid, two-way contributors, Shane Pinto and Sam Bennett come to mind, Atlantic Divisional rival for Demidov and the Habs.

Also, if we use the knowledge we gained from analyzing the KHL-to-NHL similar career projections, we had a couple ideas to use. From an overall sense, it did seem like 20 goals, if not more, would very attainable, especially given his KHL success. You could also use Michkov’s season last year as a great comparable. Two reasons the over/under at 58 over Michkov’s 53 from last year. We won’t mention Laine as a potential reason to take the over, given the potential of his tremendous shooting capitalizing on the space Demidov is able create. The first reason Demidov should be higher, is just the high-end players you have with him during our analysis discussion. Surely, if everything goes as expected, you should be successful, more often than not. And maybe as a projection, you have to consider it would be difficult for rookies to reach their expected values efficiently.

In any case, we like the over at 58. If Demidov can play a full season, and find good rhythm on the power play, we are anticipating a big 2025-26, not just for he, but the entire team and a potential Stanley Cup playoff run.