5 Surprises Shaping the Maple Leafs’ Playoff Push

Knies is now just one goal away from reaching 30 on the season. Will he hit the 30-goal mark? Then, as the offseason looms, the big question will be: what will he get paid? After his breakout performance, could the Maple Leafs face an offer sheet?

Surprise Two: Mitch Marner’s Milestone within Reach, Then What?

One of the most compelling takeaways from the Maple Leafs’ win over the Lightning was the sheer dominance of their top line. Matthews, Knies, and Marner showed flashes of being one of the most dangerous trios in hockey. Knies has emerged as more than just a passenger, and Matthews is doing what he always does.

But it’s Marner’s situation that adds an intriguing layer. With his contract set to expire and rumours swirling about a possible departure for a bigger payday elsewhere, it’s fair to wonder what comes next. Yet, if you’re Marner and still want to play in Toronto as he suggests, why would you walk away from a line that could realistically and regularly feature three 30-goal scorers in a single season? Breaking that up would be a surprise.

Marner’s importance to the Maple Leafs is undeniable. He needs three more points to hit another personal milestone – the century mark in points. His playmaking and two-way impact remain essential to the team’s success, and how he finishes the season could shape Toronto’s playoff hopes and the narrative around his future. Can he maintain his pace and help anchor a deep postseason run — or are we seeing the final weeks of this version of the Maple Leafs’ top line? Either way, it’s a storyline worth watching closely.

Surprise Three: Stolarz vs. Woll: Confidence Shift in Goal

Around this time last season, Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll were battling for the Maple Leafs’ number-one goalie spot. Samsonov had been inconsistent, and while Woll was still relatively inexperienced, the team seemed to play more confidently when he was in net. His calm demeanour and solid positioning earned trust down the stretch. He gave fans and the Maple Leafs’ braintrust the impression that he might be the long-term answer in goal. The fact is, he’s done nothing to dissuade those beliefs.

Fast forward to this season. While Woll has continued to perform well when healthy, has there been a noticeable shift in the team’s energy? The Maple Leafs now appear more composed and aggressive with newcomer Anthony Stolarz behind them. Stolarz seems to give the skaters extra confidence, whether it’s his steady presence or the recent rhythm they’ve found with him starting. The team plays looser, takes more chances, and pushes the pace in a way they don’t always do with Woll in net.

That said, this style of play can be a double-edged sword. If Stolarz continues to deliver key saves when breakdowns happen, the Maple Leafs can thrive on this momentum and freedom. But if he struggles, that looseness could quickly become exposure. As the postseason nears, this evolving goaltending dynamic — and how it shapes the team’s identity — will be one of the most interesting storylines to watch.

Surprise Four: Jarnkrok’s Line Shuffling: Mistake or Strategic Move?

On Tuesday night against the Panthers, Calle Jarnkrok had his best game since returning from an injury. Still, there are some concerns about his role on John Tavares’ line. The recent move to replace Bobby McMann with Jarnkrok might have been an experiment to try to spark something in the top six or perhaps to get the McMann/Max Domi/Nicholas Robertson trio going like it did briefly earlier in the season. 

However, the best combination seems to be with McMann on the Tavares line. Toronto still needs to figure out the best mix for the bottom six. Could Domi, Robertson, and Max Pacioretty come together in the playoffs? The team’s bottom-six units remain a surprise in the making.

Surprise Five: Who Ends Up in First Place in the Atlantic Division?

While the Maple Leafs hold a three-point lead atop the Atlantic Division with just four games remaining, they can’t afford to slack off. The Lightning are right behind, and if they win out, the Maple Leafs would need to win three out of their final four to grab and hold that top spot. While Toronto has beaten Tampa Bay every time they’ve met this season, the tiebreaker rules work against them. 

The Maple Leafs must finish ahead of the Lightning by at least one point to secure first place and avoid potential pitfalls in the playoff race. Will they do it? Which team will show up – the one that played the Panthers or the one that played the Lightning? Perhaps that’s the biggest surprise coming up most quickly.

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]