In a recent post on untouchables for the Toronto Maple Leafs, I cited a proposed trade that suggested Toronto deal Mitch Marner to Calgary.
Ryan Dixon of Sportsnet proposed the deal and wrote that the Calgary Flames would get Marner, center Fraser Minten, winger Nick Robertson and defenseman Timothy Liljegren.
In exchange, the Maple Leafs would get goaltender Jacob Markstrom and defenseman Rasmus Andersson. The Flames would retain 25 percent of Markstrom’s remaining salary in the deal. By most standards, this would be considered a monster trade in the realm of a blockbuster.
That said, is it reasonable?
Why Toronto and Calgary Both Consider This Move
Dixon explained that Markstrom and Andersson are under contract for two more seasons. The cost certainty would be a big plus for the Maple Leafs, filling two areas of need at an affordable price.
He notes the Flames would be adding a goalie who had great underlying numbers and a right-shot defenseman who plays big minutes. The total cost for both players under the terms of Dixon’s proposed deal would be $9.05 million, already $1.85 million less than Marner is being paid.
He also argued that the emergence of 2023 first-rounder Easton Cowan and the growth of Matthew Knies would allow the Leafs to move Robertson and Minten without much concern.
Dixon also contends that Calgary’s recent trades suggest it is not inclined toward a complete rebuild. Marner, with three years left in his twenties, offers the franchise an immediate star who can score.
Giving up Andersson hurts, but Liljegren helps solidify the bottom pair and he’s still young, which is something GM Craig Conroy likes.
Robertson and Minten are both solid prospects. This trade package reflects Calgary’s aim to bolster its roster for the present and future with players who can make an impact immediately.
The Realities Of This Trade Happening
While Dixon makes some valid points, the reality is a few things have to happen for a trade like this to get anywhere close. First, Marner has to waive his no-trade, no-move clause to go to Calgary. When you consider where they are in terms of being a contender, that seems unlikely.
The tax implications of signing long-term in Calgary are better than in Toronto, but there are other teams in a better position in the standings and as lower-tax destinations Marner would likely consider first.
Dallas, Florida, Tampa Bay and Nashville all rank among the best places to play from an income tax standpoint. This is not to say any are interested, only that these might be teams Marner looks at before he contemplates the Flames.
Meanwhile, Markstrom would have to also agree to waive his no-trade clause to join the Maple Leafs. He was willing to do so for New Jersey, but it’s not clear if he’d be open to another team, especially one where the spotlight is so prevalent. In Toronto, he’d be seen as a major piece of the puzzle and a down season could be disastrous.
Calgary Might Think Twice About Marner
As wild as it might sound for the Flames not to be interested in someone as talented as Marner, like in Toronto, Calgary is a hockey city.
The team gets a lot of attention and if Marner is going to move, it’s logical to assume he’d prefer potentially flying under the radar for a while, especially if a new long-term contract puts additional pressure on him to perform in the playoffs. He won’t get to do that with the Flames. It would be on him to get them into the playoffs. He wouldn’t have Auston Matthews and/or William Nylander to ease some of that burden.
This assumes the Flames and GM Craig Conroy are open to meeting his contract demands. The team is already dealing with the consequences of paying Jonathan Huberdeau a huge deal. Does Calgary want two forwards with some consistency issues eating up more than $20 million on its salary cap?
What Conroy doesn’t need are two immediately non-tradeable deals on his books while he’s trying to retool the roster into long-term contenders.
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