The Vancouver Canucks are 6-7-0 in their last 13 games, a far cry from their scorching hot 10-2-1 record to start the season. Head coach Rick Tocchet has tried changing up the forward lines, tinkered with the power play units, and even benched forward Andrei Kuzmenko for a couple of games.
However, one thing Tocchet has not done is give a deserving Nils Hoglander a long-lasting opportunity in the top-six, something that needs to happen immediately.
Hoglander’s 2023-24 Season: By the Numbers
To preface, Hoglander has not lit the nets on fire to begin the season. Canucks fans know that is not part of his game, but what he excels at revolves more around hustle, winning puck battles and playing solid, compact defence. Despite only having 11 points (eight goals, three assists) in 24 games, the Swede is having the best year of his career since his strong rookie season in 2020-21.
Over this 13-game stretch of ho-hum play from the Canucks, Hoglander ranks seventh among his teammates in expected goals-for (xGF%) at 5-on-5 with 55.74%. That number is higher than any member of the second line (which consists of J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, and recently Andrei Kuzmenko). His output looks even better when you bring up 5-on-5 goals-for percentage (GF%), where he sits at the top at 77.78%. Simply put, while his teammates have been underperforming as of late, he has stepped his game up enormously.
His best game this season came in Vancouver’s 6-5 loss to the New Jersey Devils on Dec. 5. After going down 4-2 after the first period, Hoglander was shifted to the second line and made magic happen. Despite scoring the game-tying goal with three minutes to go, his contributions after being shifted to the second line and the goal were even more impressive. He led all players with at least 10:00 of ice time at 5-on-5 xGF% by a wide margin (91.96%). His speed and forechecking were impeccable, and more importantly, he showed he belonged in the top-six.
Hoglander Deserves A Top-Six Promotion
The biggest storyline floating around the Canucks is the ongoing situation between Kuzmenko and Tocchet. Despite having solid underlying defensive stats, he has been in his head coach’s doghouse for a few weeks now. First, he was a healthy scratch for two games, a move that came as a shock, considering he scored 39 goals last season. Then, he was brought back into the lineup against the Anaheim Ducks on Nov. 28 and had himself an impressive return (game-leading 87.12 xGF%), to which Tocchet called his efforts “okay.”
Since then, he has been demoted from the first to the second line, and now, he may be headed for the third line. It’s obviously unfortunate for the Russian, but it also offers an opportunity for Hoglander to move into that role. The Canucks, despite their drop in form, are still firmly in the playoff mix. They certainly have a talented enough roster to make some noise in the postseason, especially with the addition of defenseman Nikita Zadorov. However, that second line needs fixing as soon as possible. At 5-on-5, the combination of Phil Di Giuseppe/Kuzmenko, Miller, and Boeser has a 44.7% xGF%, which ranks 129th of 163 forward lines who have spent at least 50 minutes together.
Inserting a high-energy player like Hoglander into that combination could make him, Miller, and Boeser one of the more dynamic lines the league has to offer. It has balance with Hoglander’s speed and forechecking, playmaking with Miller’s ability to find teammates all over the ice and goal-scoring with Boeser’s elite ability to shoot the puck. Yes, the current Kuzmenko-Tocchet situation is a problem that must be fixed immediately. However, sometimes a problem can bring an even bigger solution, and in terms of what is going on in Vancouver, that might be the case.
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