After coming into the season with Stanley Cup expectations, the New Jersey Devils have faced their fair share of adversity. As it stands, they sit in sixth place in the Metropolitan Division – but just three points behind a wild card position. Given that, every single game is of the essence. And that is why they’ll likely be kicking themselves over their inability to win in the second half of a back-to-back. Most recently, they fell to the Dallas Stars at home in front of a sold-out crowd, moving them to a dreadful 1-8-1 in those situations.
First Goal Woes
Dating back to last season, there’s been a consistent trend where the Devils have instantly dug a hole for themselves, giving up the first goal of the game. For the overall season, they’ve conceded first 31 times in 44 tries (70.4%).
Remarkably, in the second half of back-to-backs, that rate has been even worse. The opposition has struck first in eight of ten games (80%), which certainly plays a large role in their abysmal record in these situations.
In a league with such parity, it is very difficult to play from behind because no matter the opponent, any team can keep it close. In these situations, versus both the Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks, the Devils conceded first. And both opponents ended up winning. Those are key points left on the table that the Devils will regret in the long run.
In all situations, they continue to face the hurdle of starting off on the right foot. But in back-to-backs, it’s even more difficult to play from behind. They simply can’t afford to keep this trend up if they want to improve in their remaining six back-to-backs.
Goaltending is the Main Culprit
Since teams are typically a little more sluggish in these situations, they often need their goaltender to be among their best players. The Devils have continued to struggle to find consistent goaltending…but in back-to-backs, the issue is even more exacerbated.
What you’re going to read will shock you: In total, the Devils have given up 16.14 (!!) goals above expected in just those ten games. That’s downright terrible, and the exact opposite of what they need.
For the overall season, the Devils have given up minus-17.7 goals above expected. But when you take away back-to-backs, that number is only minus-1.56 – so basically league average.
What that says is that the Devils’ goaltending issue is almost exclusively an issue in back-to-back situations. Outside of them, they have a 22-10-2 record.
There has been just one instance on the end of a back-to-back where the Devils got a positive goaltending result. On Nov. 3 in St. Louis, Akira Schmid stopped 31 of 33 (.939 save percentage, plus-0.4 above expected) and the Devils still lost, only scoring one goal. The other nine contests saw the Devils’ netminder stop less than what they were expected to. (via Natural Stat Trick)
Inability to Execute
Obviously, when goalies struggle, the offense sometimes needs to pick them up. Considering they’ve often given up the first goal, it’s caused the offense to grip their sticks a little tighter and press. The offensive result has been a cumulative minus-4.91 goals above expected.
When the offense has scored less than expected, and the goaltending has given up way more than expected, well…it certainly makes sense as to why their record is 1-8-1. Between expected goals-for and against, that’s a whopping 21 (!!) goals the Devils have shorted themselves from…in just ten games. Wow.
Defenseman Kevin Bahl summed it up perfectly when asked about their struggles:
“The back-to-back record speaks for itself. We’ve gotta figure it out…It’s screwing us right now. It’s destroying our record.”
– Kevin Bahl
He also admitted that it may be a mental issue at this point: “Maybe not early on, but maybe now it’s getting to that point…it’s coming down to crunch time. We’re so many games into the season and you look at the standings and it’s tight. It’s one, two points tight.”
Head coach Lindy Ruff has emphasized the word execution all season, and their lack of it has especially hurt them on back-to-backs.
Need to Figure it Out
The semantics of whether or not it’s fair that the Devils were given more back-to-backs (16) than any other team in the league can be debated. But the bottom line is that there’s nothing that can be done about it currently. If they were winning, it simply wouldn’t matter. But they haven’t just been mediocre; they’ve been awful.
Last season, the Devils were 9-3-0 in the latter half of back-to-back games. One would have to wonder if that directly speaks to the loss of veterans such as Ryan Graves and Damon Severson, who had much more experience in terms of handling these situations. Especially in comparison to rookies Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec, who are both getting a ton of ice time and struggled mightily against the Stars.
They have six more back-to-backs remaining, and here’s who they will face in the latter portion: @ Nashville Predators (Feb. 13), vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (Feb. 25), at Vegas Golden Knights (March 17), at New York Islanders (March 24), at New York Rangers (April 3) and vs. Predators (April 7).
All of those teams currently occupy a playoff position. The Devils will certainly be hoping they have Jack Hughes back in order to give themselves the best shot at overcoming this hurdle. But regardless of who is lacing them up, they all need to be better.
Otherwise, their season that started with Stanley Cup expectations will end with them not even making the playoffs. Mostly because of back-to-backs.
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