Analyzing Matthew Knies’ contract negotiations with the Toronto Maple Leafs

If there could only be one shining star from the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 2024–25 season, there’s a strong argument that it would be Matthew Knies. The 23-year-old in his second NHL season put up 29 goals and 29 assists for 58 points in 78 games played. He was a massive factor on the Leafs’ top line, complementing Matthews and Marner by acting as a strong net front presence and hard forechecker. 

Knies plays a game that the Leafs have been lacking for a while. A strong power forward with the skills to match. Michael Bunting and Zach Hyman are comparables in recent Toronto history, but the former is three years older than Knies, and the latter really blossomed after his time in Toronto. 

Knies is still a very young player, and although two seasons is not a large sample size, he has remained healthy despite the physical nature of his playstyle. 

Interesting negotiations

It becomes very obvious in the playoffs that a player of Knies’ capabilities is invaluable to a team trying seriously to win the Stanley Cup. Florida plays a very hard forecheck, and with shooting lanes clogging up, neutering slightly the skill players, grindy netfront goals are necessary. 

Knies is an RFA, one of three on the Leafs along with Nick Robertson and Pontus Holmberg. With the Marner and JT contracts being the headline grabbers, I’d argue that the most important work for Brad Treliving this offseason is locking up Knies to a reasonable deal. 

Unfortunately, it appears as if the two camps are currently quite far apart, as David Pagnotta reported last week. 

“It’s all about perspective. Contract talks between Toronto and the Knies camp are active, but plenty of work remains. One side tells me they are not close to a new deal, while the other side disagrees. Still feel this falls in the 3–5 year range, whenever it gets done.”

The Fourth Period further reported that salary seems to be the main sticking point. The Knies camp is reportedly seeking around $7M AAV, while the Leafs are in the $4-5M AAV range. 

It would be nice to win one, for once

It makes sense why Knies would seek a bridge deal; he has hopefully many more years left in his career, and there really hasn’t been a reason in the last couple of seasons why he wouldn’t bet on himself. Playing 3–5 more years on the wing of Auston Matthews will almost certainly drive his production up, especially as he matures. 

What makes less sense is why the Leafs would want to bridge Knies. A longer term would probably drive the AAV down, making the contract easier to manage if something unforeseen happens. However, as reported by Nick Kypreos, this may signal a change in philosophy in the Leafs front office, moving away from the Dubas style of locking up young stars in expensive contracts with term.  

Resolving the Matthew Knies contract should be the top priority for Leafs management, especially given how important he is to the new identity of this team. It’s clear he’s earned the trust of Craig Berube, and Knies has also indicated his willingness to stay, saying at the end of the season: 

“I want to be here. I want to play here. That’s all that matters to me.” 

So what’s the holdup?

The Leafs have plenty of cap room to play with, roughly $25M according to PuckPedia. Obviously, management and fans would certainly prefer a longer term with lower AAV, as it gives the most flexibility to improve the team now during this window. Knies is also a player that, while you can’t necessarily build around the same way that you can Auston Matthews, would certainly be considered part of the “core” of this new Toronto team. Saying that, I’m sure, brings a kind of PTSD reaction given recent history, but I think it’s a gamble worth taking. 

Both sides seem to still be optimistic that a deal will happen. With the departure of Brendan Shanahan, this is really Brad Treliving’s first opportunity to put his stamp on the Leafs. It’s now his team through and through, and this is his first real test. Leafs fans everywhere are hoping he’s prepared.