Analyzing the Leafs’ trade assets and options

One way or another, the Leafs will have to find a way to improve next season. While talk of free agency will garner much of the attention, a big piece of the puzzle might come from the trade market. Any player can be traded, so they say, but thinking of who might join the team is only part of the equation. For the time being, it might be informative to examine what the Leafs might be willing to give up in a trade.

Matthews on the move?

The most reactionary takes from the latest loss come from those dreaming of an Auston Matthews trade. While his postseason production has been underwhelming next to players of his calibre like Leon Draisaitl or Nathan MacKinnon, Matthews is vital to the Leafs’ program. Not only as the captain and their best player, the Leafs have few legitimate options at centre behind Matthews.

Without their own first-round pick for the next three seasons, there is no value to the Leafs losing. Without strength down the middle, there is little hope for the Leafs. Quite simply, the plan needs to be to build around Matthews. The combination of Rocket Richard Trophy scoring and Selke Trophy defending makes Matthews a nearly irreplaceable player.

Any trade for Matthews would have to be massive, and it is not impossible to dream up enticing returns. The Los Angeles Kings offering up Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke is a common thought, but the Anaheim Ducks might have a better offer with Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish. Many teams might not even possess the assets to make an interesting offer altogether. Regardless of what might be dreamed up, the chances are slim that either side would be so bold.

What would a Nylander move look like?

Although Mitch Marner might be lost for nothing, the Leafs could still recoup some assets from the core four if they decide to trade William Nylander. The returns would not be as outlandish as a potential Matthews deal, but the Leafs could undoubtedly expect a substantial haul. Nylander has become a legitimate 40-goal scorer and point-per-game player, capable of driving his own line.

It seems a bit odd to consider trading who many consider to be the most clutch member of the core four. Still, every member of the Leafs’ core has earned a way out of town. Trading Nylander could help send the Leafs in a very different direction, but his contract should age well if he continues his current trajectory. Nylander’s commitment to his craft makes him likely to keep his effectiveness into his mid-thirties.

With Marner potentially on the way out, divesting from another star player seems less likely. Again, there should be little expectation that Nylander is traded, but it is worth acknowledging that the opportunity should be explored.

Rielly is probably unrealistic

Like both Matthews and Nylander, Morgan Rielly has trade protection in his contract. The longest tenured current Leaf, Rielly has given a lot of strong play to the organization over the years. His impressive playoff production continued this season, which might give some pause to trading him. To amplify that, the Leafs are without many puck-moving options behind him and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Trading Rielly would open up a legitimate structural flaw.

There was some discussion throughout the year of how well Rielly fit into coach Craig Berube’s system. His point totals decreased, as might be expected after being taken off the top power play. His contract is not ideal, but it is hardly a huge concern. The Leafs would likely look to add another puck-moving defenceman if Rielly is moved.

There should be some interest around the league, and Rielly might be able to command an interesting trade return. For example, the New York Rangers could use a puck-moving left shot like Rielly, are sufficiently focused on the present to add a veteran, and are eager to shake things up with some aggression. Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, and K’Andre Miller should all be of some interest for the Leafs.

For now, it appears that Rielly is not keen on waiving his trade protection, so most insiders are doubtful that he will be moved. Stranger things have happened, but for now, it seems that the Rielly will remain a Leaf.

Cowan is the No. 1 asset

Perhaps one of the more controversial additions to trade possibilities is the Leafs’ best prospect, Easton Cowan. Cowan is far from a lock to be a regular NHL contributor next season, but the possibility of such does exist. Cowan is not the same player that Mitch Marner is, and hardly in the same stratosphere as a prospect, but there are some similarities between the two. Like Marner, Cowan is more of a playmaker, willing to hang onto the puck to open up lanes for his teammates.

While Cowan is not a primary forechecker, he does seem to have a bit more snarl to his game than Marner. There is still a lot for Cowan to prove, but undoubtedly, he will hold some trade value for teams looking to get younger and better on upside. Without their next three years’ worth of first-round picks, trading Cowan might be the starting point for any big splashes the Leafs are able to make in the trade market.

The Leafs have shown a willingness to trade their best prospects, and perhaps the team elected to keep Cowan over Fraser Minten at the trade deadline. With few high-end prospects and limited ability to add more in the coming years, the Leafs will have to be very intentional about the return if they elect to trade Cowan.

Woll could make things interesting

The Leafs have built a very strong situation in net under GM Brad Treliving. The stability has been a boon, especially considering the vast injury histories of both Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll. Having a solid tandem is also a great way to ensure regular season success, which will likely be more of a focus next season if Marner moves on.

Trading Woll would be a very bold move, and the return would have to be significant. The Leafs might be able to stomach a downgrade to what is effectively their backup goaltender, and would almost certainly look to add a tandem partner for Stolarz if Woll is traded.

The Leafs do enjoy a pair of interesting goaltending prospects nearing NHL action in Dennis Hildeby and Artur Akhtyamov. It would be fairly premature to throw either into a backup role, and with Stolarz and Woll on value contracts for next season, trading either might be equally premature. At the very least, trading Woll could be an option if the Leafs are feeling aggressive, though in all likelihood, they will look to take their worthy duo into next season.

Domi an odd man out?

One year into his current deal, Max Domi provides enough value that other teams might be interested. Through his time with the Leafs, Domi has struggled to find a regular spot in the lineup, bouncing up and down as well as between centre and the wing.

If Marner leaves, it opens up an ideal spot for Domi as a playmaker on Auston Matthews’ wing. As a playmaker, Domi would benefit from playing with a scorer, though his defensive limitations are worth noting. Despite his ability to play centre and having a physical edge, Domi should be used in more of a sheltered offensive role.

His attributes and versatility come at a reasonable price, so the Leafs might be among the teams willing to have him in the fold. Still, there is a clear appetite to change the DNA of the roster, and moving Domi out could be part of that. His contract could free up a little space for the Leafs if they decide to move on, but a trade of that nature would be more focused on the other players the Leafs bring in, rather than his contract specifically.

Robertson…again

A talented scorer who has struggled to find a regular spot in the lineup, Nick Robertson is no stranger to the trade block. His performance this season might have been enough to earn more fans around the league, as chances are that he will garner some more serious interest this offseason.

Robertson can provide scoring talent at a discount, something that might be enticing to contending teams with limited space to work with, or rebuilding teams looking for a swing on upside. Although he plays with intensity, Robertson’s lack of size limits his effectiveness. His defensive play has also received some criticism.

Without Marner, the Leafs might be more inclined to keep Robertson in the lineup, as their wingers will have less overall offensive talent. Any trade return would likely be limited, though Robertson might garner some attention as a part of a bigger package.

Jarnkrok and Kampf

Many expect the Leafs to offload some salary, with veterans Calle Jarnkrok and David Kampf being the prime candidates for such treatment. It might be a stretch to consider either trade assets, as the main benefit will be seen as removing them, rather than getting much in return. It likely won’t take much of a sweetener to do so, especially with the salary cap increasing. Both are still bottom-six players on reasonable contracts.

Jarnkrok is more likely to stay, as Treliving traded for him as GM of the Calgary Flames. After missing most of the season due to injury, it is entirely possible that Jarnkrok will be more effective next season. Jarnkrok was quite effective under former coach Sheldon Keefe and could be seen as a helpful option around the league. Kampf, meanwhile, saw himself out of the lineup altogether down the stretch.

Niemela and Kokkonen don’t fit here

On the other end of the spectrum, it will be informative to see how the Leafs deal with pending RFA prospects Topi Niemela and Mikko Kokkonen. Both were picks of Kyle Dubas, and it is unclear how attached Treliving is to either of them. Both are nearing the end of their time as prospects, aging out of what most consider the cutoff.

While it is entirely possible that the Leafs do not qualify either, losing them for nothing, they might garner some small interest around the league. In particular, Niemela might be notable as a puck-moving right-handed shot. If he returns to the Leafs next season, Niemela might be able to slide into the lineup if either Morgan Rielly or Oliver Ekman-Larsson is unavailable. Despite their talents, neither defenceman seems to fit the Leafs’ current vision of length and strength on defence.

A creative offseason is possible

In all, the Leafs do not have many high-value trade options. If the Leafs are able to add players through trades, they will likely have to do so creatively. Veterans who still have some game and are on less-than-ideal contracts might be an area to target. Teams might be willing to move off of salary or get younger.

Without Marner in the fold, the Leafs should be able to afford a significant salary or two at a discounted acquisition cost. The Leafs do not seem to have enough to be in the bigger trade market this offseason, so too prospects or high-end players in their prime will likely be out of the question. Acquiring veterans through a trade would mean fewer years on their deals if they were free agents, as well as less salary in the rising cap.