Are coaching changes coming for Edmonton Oilers?

NHL coaches might have the least job security in North America right now.

Kris Knoblauch was hired on November 23rd, 2023. He’s been the Edmonton Oilers head coach for just under 19 months and he’s the 10th longest tenured head coach in the NHL. Only nine coaches have been with their team for two full seasons. It is wild how quickly teams change head coaches.

Knoblauch isn’t going anywhere. Since he was hired, the Oilers have more wins, regular season and playoffs combined, than any other franchise. They are 92-44-10 in the regular season and 29-18 in the playoffs. Winnipeg (97) has more regular-season wins, but they only have seven playoff victories, while Florida has more playoff wins (32). Knoblauch’s Oilers have won 121 games since he was hired, followed by Florida (119), Dallas (109), Winnipeg (104), Carolina (102), Toronto (98) and Colorado (96).

While Knoblauch won’t be going anywhere, we could see some changes to his coaching staff.

Sources tell me all the assistant coaches’ contracts expire this month. Knoblauch has earned the right to pick his own staff. He might want to retain all of them, but he’s earned the right to make a change or two if he chooses.. And it is easier to do when you aren’t firing people and asking the owner to pay them not to coach for you. Stan Bowman believes in allowing his coach to fill out his staff how he chooses, and with the contract flexibility this summer, that’s what will happen.

Glen Gulutzan is a strong candidate to get the vacant Dallas Stars head coaching job. Pete Deboer won the third-most games overall and the third-most playoff games, but he was fired after losing in the Conference Final three years in a row. Job security is rare in the NHL.  Gulutzan was the Stars’ head coach in 2012 and 2013 and also coached the Flames for two seasons. He was then hired by Todd McLellan and the Oilers prior to the 2018-19 season. McLellan only coached 20 games that season before being fired. In Gulutzan’s seven seasons, his head coaches in Edmonton included McLellan (20 regular-season games), Ken Hitchcock (62 games), Dave Tippett (171 games), Jay Woodcroft (133 games) and Knoblauch (146).

Gulutzan has been in charge of the second-most productive power play in NHL history over a seven-year span. The Oilers’ power play is a combined 26.7 percent over the past seven seasons, second only to the New York Islanders (27.3 percent from 1978-1984). The Oilers also set the highest single-season power play percentage in 2023 at 32.4 percent. Gulutzan has worked very closely with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to build a lethal power play. If he gets the Dallas job, and a few sources have told me it will likely come down to Gulutzan or Neil Graham, the Stars AHL head coach, Gulutzan would be a big loss. He has a lot of experience, is a great sounding board for Knoblauch. If he does get the Dallas job, Knoblauch will need to replace him with a coach who has NHL head coaching experience.

Paul Coffey joined the Oilers at the same time Knoblauch did. He has encouraged the Oilers’ blueliners to make more plays with the puck and it has paid off. He wasn’t hired by Knoblauch, but they’ve been together the past 19 months and have had a lot of success. My understanding is Coffey would like to return. He has a bit of an old-school approach, and at times, that is refreshing. I’d lean towards him returning.

Mark Stuart was hired on July 28th, 2022. He’s spent three seasons with the Oilers, and when Knoblauch was hired, he put Stuart in charge of the penalty kill. The penalty kill was excellent in 2024, but it struggled this year and tanked in the playoffs. Since the NHL started tracking penalty kill percentage (1978), there have been 349 teams that played at least 10 games in a playoff year. The Oilers’ penalty kill in 2024 was third best among those teams at 94.3 percent, but this year they ranked 348th out of 349 at 67.1 percent. Only the 2021 Islanders (65.1 percent) were worse.

I wouldn’t give the coach all the credit for an elite penalty kill, and I wouldn’t blame him solely for a woeful one.

This morning, Knoblauch said this about the penalty kill being so different the past two seasons.

“The penalty was not at the level it was the previous year,” said Knoblauch. “A lot of it had to do with some unfortunate events, and luck being part of that.

“There was a lot of different player personnel this year to last and we had so much success last year, it would have been ridiculous to change it. But as this year went along it wasn’t running as well because we had some players who weren’t as good at it as a year before. That is one area we are looking at adjusting. We won’t make any decisions today and we will see what our roster looks like next year and what type of players will be on the penalty kill.”

The penalty kill will have new players and I could see Knoblauch making a coaching change there. He inherited his entire staff, and they’ve had great success, but they’ve also come up short of their ultimate goal. The penalty kill was 69.6 percent in the Cup Final. It played a major role in losing, especially allowing first-period power-play goals. With Stuart’s contract being up, it is easier to make a change. I don’t blame him for the struggles, but when I look at all factors, I could see Knoblauch opting to make a change.

Goalie coach Dustin Schwartz is the longest tenured member of the Oilers coaching staff. Schwartz has been a lightning rod for some fans, often with false claims of goalies playing better after leaving Edmonton. Six goalies have played 40+ games since the start of the 2015/16 season. Cam Talbot (227 games), Stuart Skinner (174), Mikko Koskinen (164), Mike Smith (99), Calvin Pickard (59) and Jack Campbell (41). None of them are elite goalies, but they’ve all had periods of really good play, as well as periods of struggles.

The Oilers clearly need more consistent goaltending next season. They don’t need elite goaltending, although it would help, but the list of elite goalies is pretty short. They just need consistent goaltending, and there will be changes in goal. I don’t see a situation where Schwartz, Skinner and Pickard are all back next season. At least one will be gone, possibly two.

I do think some might overvalue the impact a goalie coach has. Look at Connor Hellebuyck. He is great in the regular season, but three years in a row, he’s struggled in the playoffs. Much of the goalie position is mental, and a goalie coach can help on some technical aspects, but only to an extent, as each goalie has different abilities. Skinner will never have a wide stance like Sergei Bobrovsky, because he doesn’t have the hip flexibility of somebody like Sergei Bobrovsky. There are limitations to what a goalie coach can do.

Stan Bowman said in his press conference today that the two areas there will be changes are at forward and in goal. The challenge with goaltenders is evaluating them. A few years ago, the Florida Panthers weren’t sure Bobrovsky was good enough. They signed young Spencer Knight to a $4.5m AAV contract. They had $14.5m tied up in goal, but then Bob led them to three consecutive Cup Finals and won the last two. I’ve outlined Hellebuyck’s struggles.

It is an important position, but also one that requires a good system in front of them to succeed for long stretches. And even then, there is no guarantee of success.

There will be a change in goal, and I won’t be surprised if it extends to the goalie coach. If they do make a change, some names to consider are Mackenzie Skapski, Dan Stewart, Richard Bachman, Brian Eklund and others. The Oilers could go big and look at Ian Clark or Sean Burke, who would be more the head of an extensive goalie department. That would take a financial commitment, but if you want to win, you can’t be afraid to spend money

Anyone who has read my articles or listened to my show knows I’m not one who likes to pound the drum on “fire the coach.” I’m not doing that here, but considering the timing, the contracts and that Knoblauch has never filled out his staff, I expect we will see some changes to the staff this off-season. They don’t need major changes, as they are very good, but a new voice could add some new ideas.

Knoblauch’s winning record tells me he’s earned the right to make those decisions to this summer.