Are the Canucks really in a competitive ‘no man’s land’?

From The Athletic

But is that an accurate assessment? To answer that, we first have to examine how the Canucks got to where they are.

As recently as a year ago, the Canucks were rated as “Window Closing,” which is interesting for a team that many feel has never quite had its window opened. In any case, a year ago, the Canucks were thought to be much closer to contending than they are now. What happened in the interim?

We can probably point to four key factors of change.

The first is undoubtedly the trade of JT Miller to the New York Rangers. A team cannot give up an elite talent without receiving an elite talent in return and still expect to be rated the same. Until the ‘return’ of Miller starts making more of a concrete difference, it’s fair for a Miller-less Canucks to be rated lower on the competitive scale.

The second, closely related to the first, is the dip in performance of Elias Pettersson. This player has been trending downward since the latter half of the 2023-24 season, but the downslide really came to fruition last year. In essence, the Canucks went from having two 1Cs to having none – at least for the present moment. And with centres often being considered the most important element in building a winning roster, it’s not difficult to see why this would lead to a significant shift in opinions.

The third factor, of course, is that the Canucks are now one year closer to Quinn Hughes becoming an unrestricted free agent. A storyline that, right or wrong, has been the point of leaguewide discussion since this past offseason. With so many seemingly of the opinion that Hughes is destined to leave Vancouver to join his brothers in New Jersey, there’s little doubt that the possibility is swaying opinions about the Canucks long – and short-term chances.

And the fourth factor is Thatcher Demko’s health. There were already question marks there following the 2023-24 campaign, but that season also saw Demko nominated for the Vezina Trophy. He’s had a year of health-related hell since. If we’re talking loss of leaguewide regard, it’s only Pettersson who has Demko beat at this point.

It’s not too difficult to see from the perspective of those who believe the Canucks had two 1Cs, a 1D, and a 1G as of the end of the 2023-24 season, but who have just the 1D in the present day…for now.

But, as we begin the pushback section of this article, we have to note how many of those factors are potentially transitory or temporary in nature.

It’s no secret that some manner of a Pettersson bounce-back is vital to the Canucks’ success now and in the future. But if he does mount a self-restoration, he’s still aged right to be in the prime of his career now and for a few years to come. The Canucks haven’t lost Pettersson; he’s just lost himself for the moment, and most indications are that he’s had one heck of an offseason. Pettersson returning to form would automatically shift the Canucks toward being more competitive.

The same goes, though it’s a different discussion, for Demko and his health. He’s the sort of goaltender that, when at his best, can truly steal games for his team. There’s just no way of knowing where Demko is at until he starts playing regularly again, but the franchise seems to believe that he will return to form as well. Goaltending was easily the Canucks’ greatest Achilles’ heel in 2024-25. If Demko’s back to Vezina status, it becomes a strength again. Even if he just returns to 1G quality, that makes a major difference – and, with Demko’s extension, that’s not necessarily a short-term thing either

The Hughes drama cannot be addressed until July 1, 2026, when Hughes first becomes eligible for an extension. But let’s not forget that he’s still under contract for both the 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons, and that Hughes is still a top-two defender in this league. Bare minimum, the Canucks will have two more kicks at the can with Hughes if they want them, and that’s not anything to sneeze at.

This is where we take the most chagrin with the notion that it is ‘time to rebuild’ for the Canucks. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: plenty of teams go through an entire teardown-to-rebuild cycle without ever landing a player as good as Hughes. There are plenty of franchises out there that have never had a player as good as Hughes. So, the notion that the Canucks can simply rebuild and wait until they acquire their next Hughes has always been a flawed one. It’s hard to get off the track that the Canucks’ best time to compete is still while they’re in possession of their greatest singular player ever, AKA Hughes.

It was far less publicized than the far more drastic shortcomings of his teammates, but Hughes also had a down season in 2024-25. He’s certainly focused on returning to his own very high bar of previous form, and for Hughes, that’s winning the Norris Trophy.

So, the only factor of the four we previously identified that is absolutely set in stone at this point is that the Canucks are without Miller. But it’s important to consider what they gained in losing him – a more peaceful dressing room aside.

The Canucks now have, for the first time since the 2010s, a rock-solid blueline. Never before has this team had a stronger top three than it does right now, with Hughes, Filip Hronek, and Marcus Pettersson. The Canucks got a lot of buzz back in the day for having three top-six centres in Pettersson, Miller, and Bo Horvat. That same buzz is absent now that they have three top-pairing defenders on the same roster, but maybe it shouldn’t be.

Add the late-renaissance-experiencing Tyler Myers to the mix, and the Canucks boast their best top-four in living memory. That’d be worth talking about if that were the only thing the Canucks got back for Miller, but they also got an intriguing forward in Chytil and have supplemented the forward corps in other ways with low-cost acquisitions like Evander Kane.

Right now, it’s tough to look at a team that has exchanged Miller for Marcus Pettersson, Chytil, and Victor Mancini and think that they’re a better team, or even of the same quality as they were before. But let this blueline play together for a while, and that opinion may start to shift. This franchise has experienced the downsides that come with a weak defence corps before, and how it can significantly undercut an otherwise competitive team. It’s time to explore the opposite effect.

Speaking of Mancini, he and his ilk seem like a fine place to end this. If there’s one component of that Athletic chart we can’t agree with, it’s that the Canucks have dropped so low in their “future rating” over the past year.

That’s hard to understand when prospects like Mancini, the younger Elias Pettersson, Aatu Räty, and that sizeable contingent from Abbotsford are all pushing for roster spots. For once, the Canucks held on to their first-round pick and drafted a right-handed centre in Braeden Cootes, who already seems to be ahead of the expected developmental curve. How did they do that and lose standing in the ranking of futures?

The last time the Canucks had this many young players forcing their way onto the NHL roster was in the 2000s, in the leadup to that 2011 run, with names like Ryan Kesler, Kevin Bieksa, and Alex Edler making the push. There’s no telling if this new generation of talents will ever prove equal. But the fact that the injection of youth is ongoing is the exact sort of thing that should be seen as window-extending, not window-closing.

To wrap up, we acknowledge that the perspective that the Canucks have become significantly less competitive over the past year is a valid one, given the events that have transpired. However, we’re still unsure if it’s the right one, or if opinions will swing wildly again following 2025-26.

Were Pettersson to bounce back, were Demko to be healthy, and were this blueline to be given a real chance to work together, it seems well within the realm of possibility for the Canucks to reverse the cycle and wind up back in the “window open” zone, at least for the next couple of years.

If not, well then, sure, we can probably deem their window closed for the time being.

But for now? No Man’s Land, no way, man.