Atlantic Division Preview: Are the Senators ready to close the gap in the division?

After a seven-year absence from the playoffs, the Ottawa Senators appeared merely happy to be back at the dance. This wasn’t admitted expressly but after the Toronto Maple Leafs emerged victorious in six games, the Senators reflected on what they deemed to be a positive season, with a much brighter future ahead. Ottawa is firmly out of its rebuilding stage. Can they close gap in the vaunted Atlantic Division?

Ottawa will surely benefit from continued internal development, with Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson firmly in their primes. Drake Batherson is coming off a 68-point campaign, and Thomas Chabot was finally utilized correctly as a true No. 2 defenceman, recording one of his best seasons of his career. And the team didn’t undergo a major overhaul in the offseason, so there will be added benefits of continuity. But is this core good enough to close the gap?

“For us, it’s about having that Stanley Cup mindset right from day one,” Tkachuk recently told Sportsnet’s Alex Adams. “The playoffs (were) the most insane thing that I’ve been a part of.”

The popular thinking suggests that the Senators, along with the Montreal Canadiens should squeeze the Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning for wild-card spots. And that’s all well and good, but there are other predictive factors that should at least provide some pause in the nation’s capital. Ottawa registered 139 goals at 5-on-5 last season, the second-worst total in the NHL. Only the Nashville Predators scored fewer goals at 5-on-5 and their season was an unmitigated disaster after spending lavishly in free agency. You could buy the idea that the Senators may benefit from some positive shooting regression after posting a .989 PDO at 5-on-5 but the reality is that they simply need to score more often at even strength to keep pace with the established powers.

There’s a clear gap between the Florida Panthers and everyone else in the division, although some Senators fans may sneer at this notion, after finishing one point behind the reigning champions during the regular season. And while this may be true, the Senators are relying on their ability to suppress offences at a league-average rate, while banking on another strong campaign from starting goaltender Linus Ullmark. Ottawa’s lone additions of note were Lars Eller, a veteran centre who will provide reliable defensive zone coverage, but at age 36, he’s removed from his prime years, and defenceman Jordan Spence, a quality depth add for the team.

“We feel like we have a good plan in place for this group,” Senators general manager Steve Staios said via The Athletic’s Julian McKenzie on July 1. “(We’re) mindful of this group and their growth and their development. And I think it can’t emphasize that enough. They are taking hold of it. The manager is there to support it and to make sure that you could add to where you need to add. The emphasis is on this group.”

Ottawa is betting that its core group will take another leap this spring, with the benefit of continuity and stellar goaltending. In an Atlantic Division that boasts four of the past six Stanley Cup champions, will it be enough to close the gap on the Panthers, Lightning and Maple Leafs?