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Mackenzie Blackwood, Colorado Avalanche (Photo by Derek Cain/Getty Images)

Avalanche’s Blackwood a Dark Horse for 2025 Vezina Trophy

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Marko Zlomislic | Last updated Jan 20, 2025 11:15 AM ET

Heading into the 2024-25 NHL season, one of the biggest storylines surrounding the Colorado Avalanche was the state of their goaltending. The 2023-24 season saw Colorado rank 18th by team save percentage (.897 SV%) and 12th out of 16 teams in the postseason (.883). The team overcame Alexandar Georgiev’s first-round implosion against the Winnipeg Jets, but fell to the Dallas Stars in the second round.

That trend continued through the first half of 2024-25, with Georgiev (.874 SV% in 18 games) and backup Justus Annunen (.872 SV% in 11 games) both failing to provide security in the crease and threatening another prime year of the team’s talented core. In response, a pair of trades headlined by Georgiev being sent to the San Jose Sharks for Mackenzie Blackwood, and Annunen heading to the Nashville Predators for veteran journeyman Scott Wedgewood were consummated.

After nearly two months’ worth of post-trade results, there is no question that the dual acquisitions of Blackwood and Wedgewood have turned the Avalanche’s season around and put them back into a position to challenge for the Stanley Cup. Blackwood in particular has been exemplary behind a better-organized and more talented defensive corps, and has rocketed into the Vezina Trophy discussion.

Avalanche Dominant Since Blackwood Trade

The Avalanche are 15-7-1 since the first domino fell with the Annunen-Wedgewood deal (Nov. 30), and 11-4-1 since Blackwood’s debut on Dec. 14, a 5-2 win over the Predators. Blackwood has allowed more than two goals in a single game on only one occasion as a member of the Avalanche, emerging victorious in nine of those 13 showings.

If one assumes that Connor Hellebuyck (Jets), Anthony Stolarz (Toronto Maple Leafs), Logan Thompson (Washington Capitals), and Darcy Kuemper (Los Angeles Kings) are the 2025 Vezina Trophy front-runners as the only qualified goalies ahead of Blackwood by SV%, the award voters must consider each goalie’s respective defensive environments.

The Capitals and Kings both rank ahead of the Avalanche by expected goals against per-60-minutes, while the Jets and Leafs are not far behind. None of those goalies can claim that they play in as demanding an environment as Blackwood did to start the season, and his numbers post-trade have shown that, when put in a team of similar quality to the other Vezina candidates, he deserves to be in the discussion.

Among goalies to have played in at least 10 games this season, Blackwood ranks fifth in SV% (.918), 16th in goals-against average (2.54 GAA), and fifth in goals saved above expected (plus-19.9 GSAx). It’s unlikely that Blackwood can sustain the .932 SV% he’s posted in 13 games with the Avalanche all season long, but doing so should put him firmly in the Vezina conversation as a favorite, not just a dark horse.

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While he has benefited from playing behind a stronger Avalanche defense, Blackwood started the season with the defensively porous Sharks, and maintained pristine numbers considering the context. They either rank last or second-last in the league in shots, expected goals, and scoring chances allowed in all situations, but he was able to post a .911 SV% and save over 13 goals above expected. Both marks would still rank within the top 15 league-wide, yet Blackwood has upped his game significantly since moving to Denver.

Since Dec. 14 (Blackwood’s Avalanche debut), the 28-year-old netminder ranks third in wins (nine), fourth in SV% (.932), and second in GSAx (plus-13.2) among qualified goalies (minimum 10 games played). The second half of the season will determine which of the early clubhouse leaders for the Vezina are for real, and which have had their cases propped up by unsustainable puck luck.

There is an argument that, along with Thompson and Kuemper, Blackwood should be one of Canada’s goalies at the upcoming 4 Nations Face-Off, but that’s a conversation for another day.

Blackwood Has Avalanche Challenging for Western Conference Crown

The Avalanche currently occupy the first wild card spot in the Western Conference with 57 points in 47 games and have built up six- (Calgary Flames; second wild card) and seven-point leads (Vancouver Canucks; one point out of second wild card) on the teams chasing them in the playoff race. Though both hold two games in hand on the Avalanche, Colorado is in a much better position than they were at the beginning of December.

Colorado could erase the eight-point gap between themselves and the Central Division-leading Jets (65 points in 47 games) over the second half of the season, but earning home-ice advantage in the first round (they are two points behind the Stars for second in the Central) should be the main goal.

Even if the Avalanche enter the 2025 NHL Playoffs as a lower seed without home-ice advantage, it’s impossible to deny that this is a different team. Having the team’s forward group fully healthy is one thing, but being confident in the man guarding the net is a benefit which cannot be understated, especially when he should finish the season as a Vezina finalist.

Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.