Blackhawks season is already heading in the wrong direction

The Chicago Blackhawks are already off to a terrible start. They’re 0-3-0 and treading water.

Now, the situation shouldn’t be much of a surprise, considering that no one really expected them to compete for a playoff spot this season.

The expectation, however, was that the Blackhawks could, at least, show some improvement compared to last season.

The numbers, at first glance, don’t look too enticing. The Hawks have been outscored 15-5, including a 6-0 pounding at the hands of the Utah Mammoth. And while Chicago lost a competitive game in its last outing against the Buffalo Sabres, the bottom line is that the team needs to improve all around.

Lack of Scoring

Let’s start with scoring.

There is little question that Connor Bedard’s absence has weighed on the team pretty heavily. Rolling with Frank Nazar as the first-line center really wasn’t the plan. Meanwhile, rookie Anton Frondell heading up the second line, with Oliver Moore and Ryan Greene taking up full-time center spots, might not have been part of the original design.

But then again, the Blackhawks do have enough firepower to muster more than just five goals in three games. Even if scoring is a bit hard to come by early in the season, the club should be able to make up for it with a solid defensive effort.

That’s where things begin to get really dicey.

Blackhawks need to improve defensively to have any chance of getting back into the playoff picture

Defensively, there is plenty of room for improvement. The Blackhawks have surrendered 97 shots in three games. That’s about 32 shots per game, something that’s just far too much. The club cannot expect its goalies to succeed consistently facing that many shots.

That said, Spencer Knight has been somewhat better than Arvid Soderblom. Knight has a 4.04 GAA and an .875 SV% in his two appearances. While he’s been good, you have to wonder just how much of his numbers are the result of poor defense or just his fault for not stopping pucks.

Overall, the Blackhawks are 31st in the league with a 32.97% Corsi, leading to a -4.21 expected goals differential. Those numbers show that the offense isn’t generating enough scoring chances.

But when looking at scoring chances at the other end of the ice, the Blackhawks have surrendered eight high-danger scoring chances, which is the third-most in the league so far, trailing only Vancouver and Philadelphia. Add to that the fourth-worst 27 defensive zone giveaways. That’s a clear indication that the defensive side of the equation isn’t working out too well.

Now, let’s look at one interesting stat: Save percentage on unblocked shots. The Blackhawks rank 12th-worst in the league with a 92.65 save percentage on unblocked shots. That’s actually 0.49% below the expected percentage on such shots. In other words, shots are getting past the goalies at about half a percentage point more than they should.

All right, so 0.49% is no big deal. That’s true on the surface. But when you’re giving up 32 shots a game, that translates to about 15 shots potentially becoming scoring chances. Hence, the 15 goals in three games that the Blackhawks have surrendered thus far.

Ultimately, there is no need to panic. At least not yet. But the bottom line is that Chicago needs to focus on shoring up its defense so that the goalies don’t have to face more shots than they have to. There’s still time to turn things around.

Let’s see if that’s the case on Tuesday night, when the Blackhawks take on the St. Louis Blues.

All advanced stats retrieved from MoneyPuck.