Blues face real gamble in any Simon Edvinsson deal

The St. Louis Blues have a clear path and option to improve the left side of their defense if they’re willing to pay for it. Detroit Red Wings defenseman Simon Edvinsson is a 6-foot-6 defenseman who has already logged top-pairing minutes in the Motor City next to Moritz Seider, averaging 22:21 a night last season. He scored nine goals and 25 points in 72 games with only one of those points coming on the power play.

He remains and unsigned restricted free agent with a Dec. 1 deadline, and SportsNet’s Elliotte Friedman stated on Tuesday’s ‘The FAN Hockey Show’ that he believes Detroit is starting to look around. While it is unclear if the Red Wings are looking around due to Dylan Larkin, Edvinsson, or even both, the Red Wings could be making moves sooner than later, despite publically stating they prefer to re-sign the defenseman. For a Blues team trying to return to the postseason, there appeal is obvious. The cost, however, is less so.

Left-side upgrade would be substantial

Edvinsson would be an immediate boost to the floor and ceiling on the left side. He has the size, mobility, and the ability to handle heavy even-strength minutes, which is the exact profile the Blues appear to have been looking for since the beginning of their retool.

Pairing him as a 1-2 punch with Philip Broberg would give the Blues two young, physically capable Swedes who can both defend and contribute offensively at even-strength. The Blues already have Colton Parayko and Logan Mailloux on the right side, plus prospect Adam Jiricek developing at a nice pace. Adding Edvinsson would give the Blues a one of the best top-four defensive groups across the NHL.

While the Blues hold a wide range of left shot defenseman, the closest to breaking through and securing that spot is Blues Theo Lindstein. While he is projected to be a legitimate piece for the blue line moving forward, he is a step below Edvinsson’s establish NHL production and ceiling. Lindstein can still develop into a useful top-four option in the NHL. However, Edvinsson has already done it and is there waiting to play. For a team that wants to get back to competing now while building toward a long window, there is a clear upgrade that could be had.

Short-term cost down the middle

The problem to all of this is what the Blues would have to send back. According to Friedman, Detroit has been looking for a young center with upside. Dalibor Dvorsky is the most obvious name for an immediate piece who could fit into their lineup. After scoring 12 goals as a rookie, he has shown flashes again this season, even while his ice time has fluctuated. Trading him creates a hole below Robert Thomas and Mason McTavish that does not have a clean internal solution.

Tynan Lawrence, the Blues’ 11th overall draft pick in June, is developing well and leading Boston University in points, but there is no firm timeline for when he turns pro. Below Dvorsky, the center depth gets a bit messy. The Blues have drafted other centers and have options on the wing, but none of them project to be the reliable third-line option in the meantime. Moving Dvorsky in a package deal for Edvinsson would result in the Blues gambling that the defensive upgrade could outweigh the immediate loss of Dvorsky, and creating a hole that Jim Montgomery and the rest of the coaching staff will need to figure out on the fly.

Is the gamble worth it?

There is still debate running around Dvorsky if his best long-term fit in the NHL is even at center. If the organization already sees him projecting better as a winger, the decision could be a little easier to make. In that case, trading him for a proven top-pairing defenseman becomes easier to understand and accept. if the Blues still believe he can grow into a solid number two or number three center, the risk gets a little higher. Either way, the short-term gamble is there with the Blues risking their center depth while trying to climb back into the playoffs.

That gamble could certainly be worth it. Edvinsson is the higher-ceiling player right now and the left side fit is almost perfect, assuming the Blues also move on from Theo Lindstein in the deal as well. For a team that wants to compete now and for the future, the trade off could be worth the risk. Whether it is the right one depends on how much faith St. Louis has in Dvorsky as a center, and how urgently the two teams could come to an agreement before the Detroits Dec. 1 deadline.