Breaking down whether the Edmonton Oilers should pursue Mitch Marner

It seems all but certain that pending unrestricted free agent Mitch Marner will be leaving the Toronto Maple Leafs. His destination is entirely up in the air at the moment, with plenty of teams rumoured to be expressing interest in the star forward.

Marner is bound to be an expensive add, with some teams reportedly willing to offer him upwards of $14M per season. Other reports suggest he is willing to take a shorter-term deal, in the two- to four-year range, which would help him capitalize on a salary cap that is set to rise significantly over the next few seasons.

The fit is tricky for the Edmonton Oilers, as they are already under a bit of a cap crunch with expensive new contracts set to be kicking in to Evan Bouchard this offseason and Connor McDavid the following season. But if they could make the cap work, should the Oilers throw their hat in the ring to pursue Mitch Marner?

Mitch Marner player profile

Marner is nothing short of a controversial figure in Toronto. The winger, a former fourth overall pick in 2015, has spent his entire career to date with the Maple Leafs. He can, at times, be a game changing player with incredible offensive instincts. He is coming off of a career year offensively where he eclipsed the 100-point plateau for the first time in his nine NHL seasons. He has produced at a well over a point per game pace in each of the past seven seasons.

Standard Stats Table

			Scor	Scor	Scor		Ice
Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM	ATOI	BLK	HIT	TAKE	GIVE
2016–17	TOR	77	19	42	61	38	16:49	39	41	67	62
2017–18	TOR	82	22	47	69	26	16:23	25	31	85	50
2018–19	TOR	82	26	68	94	22	19:49	43	29	78	67
2019–20	TOR	59	16	51	67	16	21:33	37	24	64	71
2020–21	TOR	55	20	47	67	20	22:26	41	23	53	69
2021–22	TOR	72	35	62	97	16	20:53	31	75	72	63
2022–23	TOR	80	30	69	99	28	21:17	45	53	104	94
2023–24	TOR	69	26	59	85	18	21:17	51	59	59	60
2024–25	TOR	81	27	75	102	14	21:19	40	49	56	106
NHL	NHL	657	221	520	741	198	20:03	352	384	638	642
NHL	NHL	82	28	65	92	25	20:03	44	48	80	80

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/21/2025.

Marner is a much more notable playmaker than scorer, though he has scored 30+ goals on two separate occasions, with a career high of 35. But that is where a major takeaway from his game comes in to play. Marner is not the type of play driver that will take charge or create offence.

Is that a particular need in Edmonton? Considering Marner would likely spend his time with one of Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, not really. The current Oilers star players would carry the bulk of that load. But it does raise the question of how much Marner’s contract should be, if he is not taking charge of the game and is best in a complimentary role.

A major criticism of Marner over his time in Toronto is his disappearing act in the playoffs. Despite averaging 92 points per 82 regular season games, that total drops to 74 points per 82 playoff games. Marner’s playstyle, typically one that does not engage at a high level physically, does not stand out in the playoffs or in playoff style hockey. That leads to question marks about his abilities under pressure or his ability to adapt to different styles of play.

Overall, Marner can be a star player. He is one of the most talented offensive players in the league right now. But his lack of physicality and inability to step up in difficult moments in the NHL of yet, combined with what seems to be the need to not only manage the player but also his highly involved father, significantly detracts from the appeal for the player.

Should the Edmonton Oilers puruse Mitch Marner?

For the second straight season, an inability to score and create meaningful chances late in the Stanley Cup Final haunted the Edmonton Oilers. No amount of stacking the top line with both McDavid and Draisaitl or throwing the lines into the blender yet again was able to spark anything within the lineup. There is major appeal to adding a legit offensive threat like Marner to this roster, possibly to finally give Draisaitl a permanent and highly talented winger to play with regularly.

But, the most important situations that the Oilers would be needing Marner to step up in are the exact ones that he has yet to show he can make an impact in. Edmonton does not need more regular season scoring, they already have just enough of that to be a contending team. What the Oilers need are players who can engage physically and create offensive chances in the playoffs, up and down the lineup. Marner has never shown the ability to do that.

Although I do firmly believe once he is out of the challenging environment in Toronto which seems to trouble all players, Marner will become a stronger playoff performer, it is an expensive bet to place. We know he can make big plays in big moments. He did set up McDavid for the game-winning goal in the 4 Nations Face-off, after all. But over the grueling length of an NHL playoff run, the Oilers need a player like Marner to be a physically engaged presence who can create offence.

Is this even affordable?

Then we move into the sheer unaffordability of this hypothetical. Even if Marner takes a small pay cut to play in Edmonton, bringing a player of his cost onto the team essentially removes the ability for the Oilers to make improvements anywhere else in the lineup. In order to even come close to making it work, it would require both Evander Kane and Viktor Arvidsson to be moved out, any open spots in the lineup to be filled with prospects or players on league minimum, and they still would have to play games with the cap.

Given the team is currently prioritizing Trent Frederic to an eight-year, $4M contract and re-signing Corey Perry and Connor Brown, there does not seem to be a path forward to making a big splash like this in free agency. And if they do, it would handcuff the organization from making other improvements, like the build of the forward depth and goaltending.

Although it would be incredibly exciting for the Oilers to be making a play on another big name player in free agency, Marner is not the play. His skillset, while it would be a good fit with the players he would be playing with, is not what the team needs. And as a result, any amount the Oilers would be giving him would be an overpayment for what he would provide. And, we know he is not one who is keen on taking pay cuts, something he would have to do if he were to want to play in Edmonton.