Building the Dollar Tree Bay Street Bullies

In this, potentially the summer of Sam Bennett, it seems like familiar warnings need to be shared. The Leafs tried to get tougher by adding Mike Komisarek. The Leafs tried to get tougher by adding Colby Armstrong. The Leafs tried to get tougher by adding David Clarkson. The Leafs tried to get tougher by adding Matt Martin. The Leafs tried to get tougher by adding Nick Ritchie. Throw cheaper options like Wayne Simmonds and Ryan Reaves and Toronto’s track record when it comes to getting tough in free agency isn’t great.

There have been some players that have worked out better than others. Tyler Bertuzzi’s time as a Leaf was decidedly hit or miss, but he found his groove after a while but never really justified what was spent on him.

That’s a big part of the problem and that is whether or not players can justify what they will make and as Brad Treliving continues to move the Leafs back in the direction of the Bay Street Bullies, Bennett looks like he could be next in the list of tough Leaf acquisitions that couldn’t deliver what was asked of him.

Bennett had a career year in the regular season and is making a strong case for some Conn Smythe consideration in the post season. That last part is going to have a huge impact on GMs who value clutch playoff performances and see recency bias a predictor rather than a potential red flag. The soon to be 29-year-old Bennett doesn’t have the majority of his best days still ahead of him and it probably shouldn’t be ignored that the majority of his career offence comes at a Max Domi-level output.

Bennett likely won’t get the absurd annual cap hit of $10M that has been tossed around with varying degrees of seriousness but it’s worth considering that on a long-term deal it might be just as challenging for Bennett to live up to the $6.6M AAV that has been projected by AFP Analytics.

This isn’t about not being sold on Sam Bennett. That’s been done already. This is a bit more about the acknowledgement of what Darryl Sutter spoke about recently and that is the need to bring in some tougher depth. 

The Leafs aren’t starting from scratch as they often do. Matthew Knies is a great place to start. Scott Laughton and Bobby McMann are two solid physical contributors with some room for improvement. There is the potential for Steven Lorentz and Max Pacioretty to return, and Easton Cowan comes with a lot of appealingly agitating ways. Toronto is on their way to being less fun to play against and depending on who from the core four remain and who is brought in as replacement, there is an opportunity to spread that physicality throughout the lineup more.

The change likely needs to come with players like Calle Jarnkrok, David Kampf, Max Domi, Nick Robertson, and possibly Pontus Holmberg (although he’s shown a willingness to hit, fight, and agitate.) Domi is included in this as his physical presence only seems to materialize after the whistle and that doesn’t offer much value.

There are options like Brandon Tanev and Mason Appleton that make sense in regard to the Leafs getting tougher and not spending Sam Bennett type prices. Both of them made a strong case for their impact in the bottom six on a good team with strong goaltending. They both potentially come with more of a financial commitment than the Leafs should be looking to make.

The Leafs are better off leaning more into their success with Steven Lorentz and considering depth toughness that could emerge as the right fit for the Leafs at the right price. And for argument’s sake Lorentz would absolutely still fall into this group if he too could be a $1.15M or less option still.

Tanner Jeannot’s contract situation is about to right-size itself. Above a number of the Leafs’ misses on bringing in toughness were highlighted and Jeannot was certainly a big miss for the Tampa Bay Lightning. With expectations and salary potentially back in alignment, Jeannot looks like he could be the right kind of physical option for the Maple Leafs bottom six and while hitting a 20-goal season is a pipe dream, it is possible that Jeannot can continue to hover around 10-goals and make Toronto a tougher place to play.

Eric Robinson is a seemingly under the radar player and maybe it is asking too much to expect the Hurricanes to walk away from him. If Robinson can stay in the 10-15 goal range while being a physical presence, a sub $1.5M cap hit looks like a reasonable gamble and chance for Toronto double down on the Bobby McMann archetype.

If Toronto isn’t so much concerned about bringing in Bennett’s offence or his hitting and focusing more on how he’s an agitating SOB to play against, it seems the Leafs could try to finally bring Corey Perry back to Ontario for a season. Every other near retirement player gets to do a tour of Toronto, why not the one who has a tendency to make a difference in the playoffs? At the very least he wouldn’t be able to score against Toronto anymore.

If the Leafs are looking at centres, Nico Sturm, Sean Kuraly, and Luke Kunin all represent opportunities to supplement some of what Laughton is already bringing to the bottom six as well as allowing Toronto explore the idea of Laughton as possible physical top-six wing presence instead of bottom of the lineup centre. Sturm’s versatility and Kunin’s untapped potential make them appealing options.

Anthony Mantha represents an opportunity for the Leafs to roll the dice on a big winger at a slightly cheaper price due to his injury. He’s not a heavy hitter but positions himself in the right part of the ice and is 6’5 every day of the week. Similarly, the Leafs could consider for Leafs tryout Justin Brazeau as physical depth scorer and take advantage of his 6’6 frame at a bargain basement price.

Finally, there is Brock McGinn and Christian Fischer. Admittedly, I’m a sucker for Fischer because he has some familiarity with Matthews and while it’s hard to imagine a situation where they’d play together, his brief flashes of brilliance during his time as a Coyote make him an interesting affordable option.

What should also be considered is that the crop of affordable physicality is likely to improve significantly as RFAs don’t receive qualifying offers. There is something to be said for bringing in younger, faster, and more willing to still inflict pain on themselves players than the older crop of UFAs.

Aggregating physicality throughout the lineup also brings a lot more benefit than just bringing in one guy and honestly, if you still want Bennett to be the big poster child for a harder to play against Leafs lineup, that’s fair too, but arguably Toronto shouldn’t stop there. Ideally the Leafs are looking at a way to get players like William Nylander, Auston Matthews, and John Tavares all on separate lines and surrounding them with players that will play harder around them. Nylander aggressively drives the net already, Tavares has no problem taking his abuse in front of the net, and Matthews has become a lot more comfortable using his size as well, transitioning the Leafs from having a “soft” top six to an intense top nine shouldn’t be a challenge with the affordable personnel available, and it seems likely Toronto can have a truly sour fourth line to accompany that group as well.

More than any other concerns about the Leafs going in a potentially more physical route though is the challenge of finding who are the puck carriers and movers as the physical archetype of player, including Sam Bennett, aren’t associated with being the best at moving the puck up the ice. You could see the Leafs returning to a dump and chase model and relying on the ability to win puck battles but if you look at Craig Berube’s approach in St. Louis it included some bottom six forwards who were puck movers, at least in the years where the Blues were winning.

This isn’t meant as an argument for the Leafs becoming a tougher or more physical team to play against, this is more of an acknowledge of the direction they seem intent on going in. And if they are going in that direction, it seems far more efficient and effective to spend less to achieve potentially more.