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Calgary Flames 2026-27 Player Projections: Joel Farabee

Joel Farabee, Calgary Flames (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

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Calgary Flames 2026-27 Player Projections: Joel Farabee

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Jeremy Schouppe | Last updated Aug 19, 2026 9:55 AM ET

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The 2026–27 NHL season is quickly approaching. Before it kicks off, let’s take advantage of the dog days of summer and start looking ahead at expectations for the Calgary Flames and their roster.

In this series, we’ll take a closer look at each player individually and provide a statistical projection based on historical performance, expected role, and future opportunity.

I’ve blended two approaches when building these projections: one based solely on each player’s historical stats, and another based on each player’s historical share of the Flames’ overall production. Combining both methods accounts for what a player has produced individually and how they have produced relative to the team’s overall offensive output.

The model uses three years of weighted data from the previous seasons (2025–26: 50%, 2024–25: 30%, 2023–24: 20%), giving the most recent seasons the greatest influence.

The variable part of these projections reflects adjustments for expected role changes and age. Players taking on greater or lesser responsibilities at even strength or on special teams will see those changes reflected. At the same time, age adjustments account for expected development or decline based on each player’s career stage.

One last disclaimer: these projections are per-game. Rather than attempting to predict injuries, the goal is to estimate what each player can produce if they’re healthy for all 82 games.

With the methodology out of the way, let’s take a look at Joel Farabee and what to expect from him throughout the 2026–27 season.

Joel Farabee’s Baseline

After talking about Morgan Frost in our most recent projection piece, it felt only fitting to continue this series by talking about the other half of the trade return the Flames got back in what I call a problem-for-problem trade, when the Philadelphia Flyers took on Andrei Kuzmenko from the Flames and sent Frost and Farabee in return, along with some other picks and prospects being involved.

Leading up to and even after being drafted 14th overall by the Flyers in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft, Farabee was a highly touted prospect. Never on a generational or superstar level per se, but he was always seen as someone who could develop into a highly impactful player after a season with 76 points in 62 games with the US National Development Team before being drafted, then posting 36 points in 37 games the season after.

One year removed from being drafted in the first round, Farabee made the jump to the NHL, and while he has been successful thus far, he’s never quite lived up to expectations. He had a career high of 22 goals and 50 points set in 2023-24. However, he has failed to reach the 40-point mark in the other seven NHL seasons he’s played.

Expected Role With Flames

Since coming over to the Flames, Farabee has been a staple in their top six forwards. But with Matvei Gridin speed-running his development path to the NHL, and him expected to be a staple in the Flames’ lineup this season, it creates an interesting conversation about who will be dropped.

To me, this conversation comes down to Farabee, Jonathan Huberdeau and Connor Zary. When healthy, Huberdeau is the most effective offensive player and has the highest price tag, which makes him the best candidate to play highest in the lineup of these three. Although Zary has the potential to be just as effective, he needs an extended opportunity with consistent linemates to show whether he can reach that potential.

That leaves Farabee as the odd man out in the top-six, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him playing a third-line role for the majority of the season, while also being the Swiss Army knife, if you will, bounced around the lineup when the injury bug hits.

2026-27 Projection

Goals	Assists	Points	ExpectedGoals	Shots	Shot Attempts	Scoring Chances	High Danger Chances
17.41	24.89	42.30	17.68	149.99	257.33	150.43	78.02

With the uncertainty of where Farabee will play in the Flames’ lineup this season, I’ve left any role adjustments fairly flat, because, even though I believe he could be the one falling out of the top-six, there is just as much of a chance that it is Zary or Huberdeau that ends up buried in the lineup. Zary, because that is how it has always gone with him and coach Ryan Huska and Huberdeau, because they know he won’t be a part of the Flames’ future teams that could end up competing for Stanley Cups.

I’ve spent so much time discussing the role because production and opportunity are highly correlated, and this projection could be off by a wide margin if he sits the whole season on the third line. So let’s say this: if he maintains the role he’s been playing with the Flames since being traded, I’m confident in the 17-goal, 42-point projection. If he slides, I expect him to finish closer to 15 goals and 35 points.

Either way, I think this season will solidify that Farabee won’t be part of the Flames’ future, with only one more season on his contract after this 2026-27 campaign.

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

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