Calgary Flames offer sheet targets: Gabriel Vilardi

After being drafted by the Kings, Vilardi spent one more year in the OHL. He moved to the Kingston Frontenacs, where he put up 58 points in 32 games and another 22 in 16 playoff games. Kingston fell to the Hamilton Bulldogs in the conference finals, who went on to win the OHL championship.

Vilardi would get a handful of professional games in with the AHL’s Ontario Reign in 2018–19, but he did not become a full-time pro until the year after. Vilardi suited up for 10 games with the Kings in 2019–20, collecting seven points, but spent most of the season with the Reign, where he recorded 25 points in 32 games.

The 2020–21 season was Vilardi’s first as a full-time NHLer, and he picked up 23 points in 54 games as a 21-year-old. The following season was split between the Kings—seven points in 25 games—and the Reign—38 points in 39 games. His final season with the Kings in 2022–23 is when he really broke out, scoring 23 goals and 41 points in 63 games.

Following his breakout season, the Kings dealt Vilardi to the Jets as part of a package for Pierre-Luc Dubois. With the Jets, Vilardi’s ice time and production improved. Last year, he scored 22 goals and 36 points in just 47 games. This season, he set career bests in goals and points—27 and 61, respectively—in 71 games.

Compensation

The chart below details the required compensation based on the average annual value of the offer sheet made.

The Flames have the cap space and the draft capital to try to sign whoever they want, really. The question, though, is whether they should do it. While any player they sign would certainly help the team now, provided the other team opts not to match the offer, the loss of Calgary’s own draft picks is a steep price.

Considering Dylan Guenther recently signed an eight-year, ~$7.15M AAV pact with the Utah Mammoth, I think Vilardi will cost over $7M. Given it would be a free agency signing to boot, I don’t think it’s crazy to estimate Vilardi signs a long-term deal around $7.5M AAV. This would require the Flames to send their first, second, and third-round picks in the 2026 NHL Draft to the Jets.

That’s a scary thought after the season we just witnessed. If not for Dustin Wolf’s incredible play, this Flames team could very well have finished in the bottom 10. Who knows, maybe even the bottom five. With Gavin McKenna—a franchise-altering talent—heading the 2026 draft class, I’d hate to see the Flames give up a chance at drafting him.

Fit with the Flames

On paper, Vilardi appears to be everything General Manager Craig Conroy envisions adding. Soon to be 26, he fits the team’s age. As I said earlier, he’s a right-shot centre, which is something Conroy has made very clear he wants to add. Lastly, the Flames have the cap space, roster spot, and necessary compensation to fit him.

Vilardi is a 200-foot centre whose three straight seasons of 20 or more goals proves he can score at the NHL level, too. He has shown he thrives with more ice time, evidenced by his career-bests this year while skating a career high 18:08 time on ice. He’d slot in as the Flames’ second centre perfectly, bumping captain Mikael Backlund down to the third line. A one-two punch at centre of Nazem Kadri and Vilardi is certainly appealing, and so is bumping Backlund down into a more appropriate role.

Morgan Frost has been a welcome addition, but his production has been inconsistent at best. Perhaps a move to the wing would help his game. Then there’s Connor Zary, who has already been shifted to the wing since Frost came along and thrived there. No sense changing that just yet.

With nearly $18M in cap space according to PuckPedia, the Flames can easily fit Vilardi under the cap. They also have all of their own draft picks, so the ability to pay the compensation isn’t in doubt. This takes me back to the real question: should the Flames offer sheet Vilardi?

Should the Flames offer sheet Vilardi?

There’s no doubt in my mind that Vilardi would be a valuable addition. As I outlined above, the fit is perfect. But I don’t think the Flames should do it for a couple of reasons.

The first reason, since I already touched on it, is the 2026 draft. If the Flames don’t exceed expectations next year like they did this year, it’s quite possible their pick will be pretty high. Gavin McKenna is, without a doubt, the best player in the draft and likely to be a franchise cornerstone player. This would be a different conversation if the Flames were a perennial playoff team; I’d absolutely give up a late-teens or later pick.

But they’re in flux right now. Giving up a pick that has even a small possibility of being first overall is not worth the gamble. Not by a long shot. All due respect to Vilardi, as he would be a great addition to the Flames, but a 60-point player isn’t worth that gamble.

The second reason is Vilardi’s injury history. He’s dealt with injuries constantly throughout his young NHL career, missing a month here and there with various injuries. Would you gamble a potential lottery pick for an injury-prone player? I certainly wouldn’t. Again, I would love for the Flames to add Vilardi, but not at the expense of their 2026 first-rounder.

Unfortunately, there’s no offer sheet scenario where the Flames wouldn’t be giving up their 2026 first-rounder. Vilardi is due for a sizeable raise on his current ~$3.5M AAV deal, and anything ~$4.5M AAV or higher requires that first as compensation. So, as much as I would love to see the Flames acquire Vilardi, I don’t think an offer sheet is the avenue they should take.