Calgary Flames offer sheet targets: Marco Rossi

The 23-year-old left-shot centre is coming off his second full NHL season after being the ninth overall selection in the 2020 NHL Draft by the Minnesota Wild. Rossi, born in Austria, is the second highest draft pick of Austrian descent behind only Thomas Vanek, who was selected fifth overall by the Buffalo Sabers in 2003.

Despite his 5’9″ frame, the young centre has become a full-time NHLer over the last two seasons, setting career highs in goals and points this season with 24 and 60, respectively. The young forward would fill a major hole in the Flames’ lineup up the middle while bringing some much-needed offensive firepower. The 23-year-old fits Craig Conroy’s timeline and needs, but is he worth the price of compensation, or does another route make sense to acquire Rossi? Let’s dive in.

Marco Rossi’s on-ice production

After being drafted during the COVID-19 Pandemic by the Wild, Rossi returned to Europe from the OHL to play a single game with the ZSC Lions before shutting down for the year. In 2021, Rossi started the season with the Wild’s AHL affiliate in Iowa. Rossi had a strong first season in the AHL, posting 18 goals and 53 points in 63 games in his rookie campaign. He also appeared in two games for Minnesota in January of 2022 before heading back to the AHL to finish the year.

2022–23 saw Rossi determined to be a full-time NHLer. Cracking the lineup out of camp, Rossi was relegated back to the AHL in November after struggling to find his footing. Despite his single point in 19 NHL games that season, Rossi returned to Iowa, finishing his second AHL campaign with 16 goals and 51 points, just two points shy of a PPG pace.

2023–24 saw Rossi finally crack the lineup for the entirety of the Wild’s schedule in his D+4 season. The 22-year-old had a strong rookie season, posting 21 goals and 40 points. This past season saw Rossi’s role grow in the Wild’s offence, finding the back of the net 24 times while adding 36 helpers. Rossi stepped into his own this season, playing up and down Minnesota’s lineup. The forward has seen himself everywhere from fourth-line centre most recently, in the first round of the playoffs, all the way to the top line as Minnesota handled injury woes during the back half of the season.

Compensation

The chart below details the required compensation based on the average annual value of the offer sheet made. It reflects the NHL’s updated thresholds for this year.

The Flames have the cap space and the draft capital to try to sign whoever they want, really. The question, though, is whether they should do it. While any player they sign would certainly help the team now, provided the other team opts not to match the offer, the loss of Calgary’s own draft picks is a steep price.

To say the books are wide open for Craig Conroy come free agency on July 1 would be an understatement. The Flames enter the offseason with the second-lowest projected cap hit for 2025–26 in the league at $67.68M. Plus, the salary cap is getting a healthy bump to $95.5M from $88M this season. That leaves the Flames with almost $28M in projected cap space, a manageable budget to say the least.

Although Conroy and the Flames can, should they?

Well, the Minnesota Wild surprisingly can afford to match even a relatively high offer from the Flames if Conroy feels Rossi is worth $7.02M, a first, second, and third-round pick. With Ryan Suter and Zach Parise’s combined cap hit reducing from $14.74M to $1.66M next year, the Wild will have $20.59M of their own projected cap space to utilize.

It’s much more likely that if Conroy and the Flames submit an offer sheet on Rossi, it falls somewhere in the $4.68M to $7.02M AAV range at the fourth level of compensation. The Flames would have to give up a first and third-round pick if Minnesota didn’t match the contract offer.

Although Rossi is affordable on the books, giving up a first-round pick in 2026 could be risky with a loaded draft class and a roster that seemingly stood on the shoulders of Dustin Wolf last season. Minnesota wasn’t convinced by what they’d seen thus far to sign him long-term, and they’ve shown how committed they are to the next generation after signing defenceman Brock Faber to an eight-year $8.5M contract last season.

Fit with the Flames

It appears the Wild don’t think Marco Rossi belongs in the club’s top-six in the near future, after centring the fourth line in the playoffs. Rossi and his camp, however, believe he’s a consistent top-six NHLer who should command the ice-time and compensation of one. As far as the Calgary Flames are concerned, they need centremen and offensive prowess. Although some of his advanced metrics could suggest incoming regression, he’s a solid bet for the Flames as a 2C in my eyes. He’s an intelligent player that see’s the ice incredibly well with hands, an accurate shot and speed. Plus, he still has the potential to develop into a star.

Rossi could slot in behind Nazem Kadri as the 2C, but also has the ability to slide over to the wing. Maybe Jonathan Huberdeau finds chemistry with the young Austrian up the middle? Alternatively, Rossi has spent lots of time on the wing with Minnesota as well and could provide the same versatility.

Although the Flames have the assets available to submit an offer sheet on Rossi, and it appears he could slot into the Flames’ top-six almost anywhere, is it worth all the draft capital at the end of the day?

Should the Flames offer sheet Rossi?

Marco Rossi is a prime target for the Flames on July 1 that would immediately inject some much-needed offence into the Flames’ top-six. However, the cost the Flames would have to pay is certainly high.

If I were Craig Conroy, one of the biggest reasons I’d tread lightly would be the sheer depth and talent available in the 2026 draft class. The Flames would be going out and nabbing a relatively proven young centre that could immediately help them win games. But, that 2026 first-round pick could just as easily turn into a promising young centre that’s only a year or two away from making the impact Rossi could now. That’s without even considering the third-rounder.

In a class loaded with centres, the Flames might be better off trying to negotiate a trade with the Wild rather than offer sheeting him. In that case, the Flames could at least hold onto their own first-rounder and look to deal the Vegas Golden Knights’ 2026 first-round pick that was acquired as part of the Noah Hanifin trade. It makes business sense that the Wild will be looking for at least a first and a third-rounder to part ways with Rossi, but maybe Rasmus Andersson could help sweeten the deal and mean the Flames can save on their future assets.

With the Flames still living in the mushy middle, this upcoming season could be a lot like what we expected 2024–25 to be for the Flames. If Dustin Wolf regresses, that 2026 first-rounder could be a lottery spot, who knows? My point is that this may not be the year for the Flames to gamble with their own first-rounder.

If Rossi keeps positively developing after his delayed start as a top ten pick, the Flames could strike gold. But, if the writing is on the wall next season and the Flames finally decide to pull out of the playoff hunt, offer sheeting anyone is a very risky gamble. If you need any more convincing, take a look at Gavin McKenna’s highlights.