It's January 14, 2015, and the Minnesota Wild are 18-19-5, with awful goaltending and little hope. The pressure is on Chuck Fletcher to turn things around or risk a disastrous season. And in the Star Tribune, one columnist asked the Wild not to make a season-saving trade.
It appears that Jim Souhan's column from that time is scrubbed from the internet, leaving an imperfect memory to recall what happened there. But the gist of the column was: The Wild are bad and should embrace it. What's the point? Especially with Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel as potential lights at the end of the tunnel.
In retrospect, the column looked silly. Fletcher ignored the Strib's advice and traded for Devan Dubnyk, which salvaged the season. Minnesota went from last place in the Central Division to winning an honest-to-god playoff series. Back then, the Wild were allowed to do that, you see. It's hard to say that they shouldn't have made the move, especially when Dubnyk provided years of stability in net for a win-now team.
On the other hand, that turned out to be the last time Minnesota won a playoff series. They are 0-for-8 in series since then, with one missed postseason. Maybe Souhan had a point?
The Wild are in a similar, though not identical, situation this year. The 2014-15 and 2023-24 versions of this team are both win-now squads with playoff ambitions. Both have greatly disappointed and find themselves on the brink of irrelevancy in January. Each version is in major need of a spark, or they'll find themselves in Draft Lottery Land.
Their differences suggest that Souhan dust off that 2015 column and run it again. The 2014-15 Wild had $15 million tied up in Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, two very-good-if-not-great players at their peaks. The 2023-24 Wild have $15 million tied up in Parise and Suter's buyouts, which makes a season-saving trade impossible. Their only spark can come from within. Players like Kirill Kaprizov, Jonas Brodin, and Jared Spurgeon need to get (and stay) healthy.
The other major difference between these two teams is their position in the competitive window. Say what you want about the 2014-15 Wild, but the goal was to be in the mix for a Stanley Cup, and there were legitimate hopes that they could accomplish what they set out to do. But despite an 11-3 start from John Hynes after a mid-season coaching change this year, few believe Minnesota has what it takes for a deep playoff run. Fletcher had to save the season because his job was on the line. However, Bill Guerin has the rope to take a bad season on the chin (at least from an on-ice perspective).
Why not get in a desperately needed tank year, then? They're literally already halfway there, in line for the league's sixth-best lottery odds entering Game 42 of the season. It shouldn't be hard to finish the job, get a high pick, and add that to an Under-24 core, including established young players in Matt Boldy, Brock Faber, and Marco Rossi.
Well, you've got to get into the team's mindset. The players aren't going to tank. Hynes isn't going to tank. The front office has to do the tanking, which will never happen with Guerin. He's too proud. He's focused on winning and winning now. Guerin is throwing everything he can at winning, even to his team's long-term detriment.
But sometimes you don't have a choice, as the Wild have learned through 41 games. The bottom has fallen out of a team that posted back-to-back 100-point seasons. And if they don't have a choice and keep being this bad, that's probably a good thing for the franchise long-term.
Like in 2015, a prize awaits one lucky lottery winner in the 2024 Draft. If you're splitting hairs, Macklin Celebrini isn't quite the generational-type player that McDavid or Connor Bedard were coming out of the draft. But is he close? You better believe it. Celebrini doesn't turn 18 until June, yet he has 11 goals and 27 points through 16 games at Boston University. He looks like a dead ringer for Eichel, a fellow Boston U product. That means he's a virtual lock to be a star and almost definitely a superstar.
Of course, only one team will win Celebrini. And let's face it, does anyone expect it to be the Wild? So what happens when the NHL, ahem, rigs* the draft lottery for the Chicago Blackhawks again, and Minnesota's stuck with the seventh overall pick?
Good news. Right now, it looks like the Wild should be very, very happy to be in that spot, even if they don't get that lottery luck. As deep as most people thought the 2023 Draft was, 2024 might also be an ideal year for a team to fall toward the bottom of the standings.
See that comparison between Celebrini and Eichel above? That comes from Hockey Prospecting, which projects players' likelihood of becoming stars (scoring 0.7-plus career points per game as a forward and 0.45-plus as a defenseman) based on their NHL Equivalency (NHLe). It's imperfect, for sure, but it's a solid predictive tool. And it predicts big, big things for the Class of 2024.
These odds are going to be in flux over the coming months. We're at about the halfway point of most junior/college seasons, so players have plenty of time to raise or lower their stocks. But based on this class' production so far, six players are at a 70% likelihood or more of reaching stardom: Celebrini, Ivan Demidov, and Cole Eiserman at forward, and Zayne Parekh, Zeev Buium, and Artyom Levshunov on defense.
As you recall, the Wild are currently on track to draft sixth overall, depending on lottery bounces.
Add in forwards Nikita Artamonov and Berkly Catton, then defenseman Carter Yakemchuk, and we have nine players who currently project at 50% or more to become stars. The Wild could get bumped down three spots from their tanking spot now (via the standings or lottery) and still be guaranteed one of those nine guys.
How rare is that? Hockey Prospecting has comprehensive NHLe data dating back to 2005, so let's look at how many prospects in each draft had 70%-plus and 50%-plus odds of stardom after their draft year:
If we weren't spoiled by last year, we'd be looking at an unprecedented 2024 draft. In most years, you have one player you can feel confident in turning into a star player. If you're lucky, there are two of those guys. There's never six, until last year and this, that is.
As tantalizing as it is to have those six names or more at the end of this season, it's important not to put the Wild's draft card before the horse. There's still a half-season's worth of time between now and anyone's draft position being solidified.
Not to mention, Minnesota has gotten much "help" to get to their spot in the league's cellar. Between Spurgeon and Brodin, they've had to miss a half-season's worth of games to weaken the blueline. Kaprizov, Boldy, and Mats Zuccarello have had to combine for another 23 missed games. Their goaltending has had to spend 41 games with an .895 save percentage, "good" for 25th in the NHL.
A lot's had to break right to go this wrong. And unfortunately(?) being this bad won't get easier.
According to The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn, Minnesota has faced the fifth-toughest strength of schedule this season, which has to have something to do with their predicament. Will they rebound now that they have the second-easiest second-half schedule? It probably can't help them raise their Celebrini odds. Especially not if the Wild get healthier anytime soon, and it's not like they can sell off their veterans at the trade deadline and get worse.
Like it or not, the Wild aren't going to try to embrace this unplanned tank. That doesn't mean it can't happen, though. It might not be pleasant in the short term, but if the Wild can be dragged kicking and screaming to pick in the Top-6 range this season, it may be worth it over the long haul. Whether you're rooting for that or not is up to you.
*For legal reasons, we are joking because jokes are legal. Ha ha! This is us laughing at our joke!
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The Hurricanes announced Thursday night that they’ve signed winger Jackson Blake to an eight-year, $45M extension that will kick in for the 2026-27. While that would normally mean an average annual value and cap hit of $5.625M, the actual cap hit of the contract will fall in the $5.1M range due to deferred compensation, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports. The contract buys out the extent of Blake’s RFA eligibility and will make him a UFA following the 2033-34 season. Blake’s stock has been on the rise since immediately after Carolina selected him in the fourth round in 2021. He was a USHL All-Star in his post-draft season with the Chicago Steel before making the jump to NCAA hockey with North Dakota, where he totaled 102 points in 79 games in two seasons — earning a Hobey Baker finalist nod in his sophomore year. He signed his entry-level contract with the Hurricanes in April 2024 and joined them for the brief remainder of the regular season. In his first full pro season, Blake hit the ground running. He made the Canes out of camp and had five points through his first nine games despite seeing less than 12 minutes of ice time per night. That offense didn’t quite hold up the rest of the way, though. While he ended up seeing significant deployment alongside Sebastian Aho at even strength, he ended up finishing the year with a 17-17–34 scoring line in 80 games, finishing ninth on the team in scoring and ninth in Calder Trophy voting as the league’s Rookie of the Year. That’s fine production, especially considering he averaged under 14 minutes per game on the year. He’ll need to build on it to justify that cap hit, though, especially with so much risk attached to a max-term deal. The good news is that Blake has another year left on his entry-level contract to continue his development before he’ll need to start justifying that cap hit. The son of former NHLer Jason Blake turns 22 next month, yet with this deal, he’s guaranteed to surpass his dad’s career earnings. The Hurricanes have historically opted to sign their young players for as long and as early as possible, a trend that continues here. Sometimes, it’s paid off — their eight-year, $59.4M commitment to Seth Jarvis last offseason looks like a steal after he put up a repeat 67-point performance in 2024-25. There’s also the glaring example of where that strategy has failed regarding center Jesperi Kotkaniemi, whose $4.82M cap hit looks more stomachable now with a rising ceiling but is still well above his market value four years into the deal. The jury is still out on newly acquired Logan Stankoven, who they inked to an eight-year, $48M extension at the beginning of the month. Blake’s deal will be one of the last of its kind. It contains two elements — deferred compensation and an eight-year term — that will be outlawed when the new CBA Memorandum of Understanding takes effect on Sep. 15, 2026. If he waited until reaching RFA status next summer to sign, a lengthy negotiation could have lost him that eighth year if the two sides didn’t come to terms until the beginning of training camp. With the salary cap’s upper limit projected to reach $104M in 2026-27, the Hurricanes have around $16M in projected space with Blake’s and Stankoven’s deals taken care of. While they’re projected to be Carolina’s 11th- and 12th-highest-paid forwards on their opening night roster this season, they’ll be their fifth- and sixth-highest-paid forwards in 2026-27.
The New York Mets are a half-game ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies for first place in the NL East ahead of Friday night's bout with the San Francisco Giants, but they are still one of the most vulnerable teams in baseball. New York has a laundry list of pitchers on the IL, including Tylor Megill (elbow), Griffin Canning (Achilles), and Max Kranick (flexor). However, it did acquire southpaw hurler Gregory Soto from the Baltimore Orioles on Friday. The veteran is 0-2 with a 3.96 ERA over 45 appearances this season, including 18 holds and one save. While the Mets could stand to add more healthy arms, they probably won't get a certain prominent hurler on the Miami Marlins, via The New York Post's Mike Puma. "The Mets are among the teams that have checked in on Sandy Alcantara," he reported on Friday. "The asking price is steep. The Mets haven’t ruled out adding a starting pitcher, but view it as a tough add given the market." Alcantara is 5-9 with a 6.66 ERA over 20 starts this season. The 29-year-old won the NL Cy Young Award in 2022 after going 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA in 32 starts. His current contract extension has a $21 million club option for 2027, and he's scheduled to make $17.3 million in both 2025 and 2026. Right-handed pitcher Clay Holmes (8-5, 3.48 ERA) will start for New York against San Francisco right-hander Logan Webb (9-7, 3.08 ERA) on Friday.
The Seattle Storm are looking to make things right after Tuesday’s 87-63 blowout loss to Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings. They get a chance to do so on Thursday when they return to action against the Chicago Sky in a road game at Wintrust Arena. The Storm got a big boost ahead of the Sky matchup, which comes in the form of seven-time All-Star Skylar Diggins returning to action after a one-game absence. After registering the first triple-double in WNBA All-Star Game history on Saturday, Diggins was unable to suit up against Dallas on Tuesday due to personal reasons. The 5-foot-9 guard was not listed on Seattle’s injury report for the Sky game, though, which means that Diggins should be back in the starting lineup come Thursday. This is a crucial development for the Storm, who will be looking to improve on their 14-10 record. In 23 games played this season, Diggins has produced averages of 17.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.5 triples per game. Chicago Sky List Angel Reese as Questionable to Play Against the Seattle Storm While the Storm got some good news ahead of Thursday’s clash, the same cannot be said for the Sky. This is after two-time All-Star forward Angel Reese was added to the injury report with a back problem. The silver lining is that Reese, who missed Chicago’s last game before the All-Star break with a leg injury, is listed as questionable to play, which means that there’s still a chance that she’s able to suit up against Seattle. Reese looked fine on Tuesday as Chicago suffered a 91-68 blowout loss to the Minnesota Lynx, posting an 11-point, 11-rebound double-double. It is unclear exactly when Reese sustained the injury, but it has now placed her status against Seattle in jeopardy. It is worth noting that Michaela Onyenwere (knee) and Ariel Atkins (leg) have also been ruled out for the Storm game, as they continue to recover from respective injuries. This only means that Chicago will be significantly shorthanded on Thursday, especially if Reese also ends up sitting out.
The Cincinnati Bengals have finally reached an agreement with first-round pick Shemar Stewart, putting an end to what became the story of the offseason for the team. Stewart, drafted 17th overall in this year's draft, has finally agreed to a four-year, fully guaranteed $18.97 million deal that includes a $10.4 million signing bonus, according to his agent Zac Hiller of LAA. Now with this deal done, every first-round pick is signed. The road to this deal was a bumpy ride. For months, negotiations between Stewart’s camp and the Bengals front office stalled due to disagreements over contract language, particularly around guarantees. The team pushed to include contract language that could void the deal under certain off-field circumstances, but since other Bengals first-round picks did not face similar terms, Stewart stood firm and refused to sign. Both sides remained firm throughout the offseason, leading to a long standoff and a lot of reports of frustration from both sides. Despite the frustration and disagreement, the Bengals and Stewart’s group continued to engage in conversations, trying to find a resolution to the issue. And finally, after weeks of back and forth and weeks of controversy surrounding what Stewart may be forced to do, both parties appear to have met in the middle and found common ground. For the Bengals, getting Stewart signed and ready for training camp is a major win. Stewart was viewed as a developmental prospect who needed plenty of on-field reps to reach his full potential. Stewart's absence from earlier camps had slowed a lot of his progress. With the contract dispute resolved, he can now focus entirely on gaining important reps and continuing his development over the coming weeks. Now with this contract done and over with, the team can put their full focus on Trey Hendrickson, who is also seeking a long term deal. If the Bengals can get a deal done with Trey before the season kicks off, they would secure their edge-rushing room for not only 2025, but for years beyond. For a team looking to go all in on making the playoffs, signing Stewart was long overdue. Now it will be vital for the team to get Stewart up to speed with the rest of the roster, and allow him to get as many reps as possible before the 2025 season begins.