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Canada’s Playoff Map Shaping Up: But No Maple Leafs!

Originally posted on NHL Trade Talk | By Old Prof | Last updated Dec 8, 2025 7:41 PM ET

Frank Seravalli was on The FAN this week tossing around a simple question: Will more than three Canadian teams make the playoffs? He said Yes! Then, he dropped the hammer. There’s a new Canadian pecking order, and he’s got the Maple Leafs out.

Not slipping, not wobbling — out. And the way he laid it out, you could almost picture a new playoff map forming across Canada, one where Toronto isn’t in its usual spot.

The Four Canadian Teams Seravalli Says Are Ahead of Toronto

Seravalli didn’t rank them, but I will — based on his tone, the logic, and the state of each team.

First, Edmonton Oilers — “Figuring It Out” Territory

Seravalli put Edmonton first for a reason. He thinks they’ve steadied themselves, finally pulling the season back from the edge of the cliff. Better structure, slightly calmer goaltending, and Connor McDavid doing the “nope, we’re not missing the playoffs” routine he does every year when things start drifting south.

There’s a little inevitability with the Oilers when they settle themselves. They’re not pretty every night, but they’re dangerous in stretches, and Frank seems convinced one of those stretches is either here or on the way.

Second, Ottawa Senators — Canada’s Most Consistent Team

The way he said it almost slipped by: the Senators have been the most consistent Canadian team this season. That’s quite something when you consider how long Ottawa has lived in that “maybe next year” neighbourhood.

Their young core is, for once, not bursting into flames or collapsing under expectations. They’re just… playing well and growing into the season instead of shrinking from it. Frank believes in them enough to pencil them in comfortably.

Third, Winnipeg Jets — Hellebuyck Will Make the Difference

This one surprised me—but his logic makes sense. He basically said: If Hellebuyck comes back, the Jets come back. That’s the whole argument. Depth scoring has gone cold, but he doesn’t expect it to stay frozen. Fair enough. The Jets always seem to do the “dead for a month, alive for the next two” routine.

A healthy Hellebuyck is still a top-five goalie in the league. If he’s right, the Jets hop back into the mix quickly.

Fourth, Montreal Canadiens — The Wild Card With Skill

This is the pick that really pushes Toronto out of the circle. Injuries everywhere, both goalies rattled at the same time, defence duct-taped together… and still, Seravalli sees enough skill and momentum to get them in. He used the phrase “a bit of juice.” That tells you everything. He sees energy where others see instability. No argument that the Canadiens are stronger than they’ve been.

What This New Playoff Map Means for the Maple Leafs

If those are his four, the equation becomes brutally simple: someone has to miss, and he thinks it’s the Maple Leafs. His reasoning was logical. He sees a “crisis of confidence” in Toronto’s crease — not talent, but stability. Too many “day-to-day” moments, not enough normal stretches. Combine that with a forward group that hasn’t been healthy enough to build rhythm, and he figures the Maple Leafs have slipped behind the pack.

Maybe the Maple Leafs are losing a bit of ground this year. Hard to deny the start wasn’t what anyone hoped for. But over the past couple of weeks, they’ve actually played some pretty decent hockey. The secondary scoring has finally woken up, and the goaltending — banged up as it is — has held the line better than it gets credit for.

So I’m nowhere near ready to plant flags on either side of the fence. I’ve watched too many seasons turn themselves inside-out by January to think anything is settled. Still, maybe Seravalli’s right. Or maybe, two weeks from now, this whole thing flips on its head. That’s hockey.

This article first appeared on NHL Trade Talk and was syndicated with permission.

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