Canadiens Analysis: The Jake Evans Trade and Contract Situation

Defensive stalwart Alexandre Carrier has helped, as has Patrik Laine’s powerplay markers, and there’s no denying the Canadiens have relied on their goaltenders on many occasions, but at the centre of it all is a hard-working player who is leading the team from the fourth line, one of the most difficult feats to accomplish in the NHL.

Given that only three players were picked after Evans at the 2014 NHL Entry Draft, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that he’s producing in a difficult role. He had to climb his way up the depth chart in Laval before even being considered for an NHL job, and then he worked harder than most to carve out a nice, if not limited role in the NHL.

We also have to give a little credit to the Canadiens, as they identified a player who was spectacularly unspectacular, and gave him an opportunity to prove that an elite work ethic, hockey smarts, and a well-rounded game can sometimes hold the edge over raw talent when it comes to roster construction.

In that same vein, Evans isn’t the norm in Montreal. He’s actually a very rare case of filling the NHL ranks with drafted players rather than trades and free agency.

Which brings us back to the burning question that shows no signs of being extinguished, especially now that Evans has reached the 10-goal mark, trailing only first-line players Nick Suzuki (11) and Cole Caufield (18) in that department.

Should the Montreal Canadiens re-sign Jake Evans, or trade him at the deadline to the many suitors that would count themselves lucky to add such a versatile forward to the lineup?

This is the part where eyes will roll, because there’s no perfect answer.

In fact, we can’t answer that question at this very moment, at least not with any semblance of certainty.

But in an effort to provide a little clarity, we can look at the situation from both sides of the coin.

What The Montreal Canadiens See

It’s not surprising Kent Hughes and Co. are yet to engage in contract talks with Evans. There’s little, if any value in negotiating a contract extension with a player whose shooting rate is roughly three times his career average. And Evans’ 31.3 percent shooting percentage isn’t the only concern from a managerial standpoint.

Analysis used to suggest players peak around 28 years old, with more recent studies saying it’s closer to 23-25. Either way, there’s a strong possibility Evans’ market value could decline next year if he hits the proverbial wall, and it would only be downhill from there.

Additionally, when it comes to asset management, there’s no such thing as too many draft picks, especially first-round picks. There’s always room for another Michael Hage in the organization, and if there aren’t any prospects that interest the Canadiens at the upcoming draft, they can use picks to facilitate a trade for an NHL-ready player.

When you weigh the risk of holding onto an asset for a little too long, the inevitable raise owed to Evans, and the possibility of turning a player picked in the seventh-round pick into a first-round pick, it’s easy to see why Montreal Canadiens management needs to approach the situation with as much tact as possible.

The Jake Evans Angle

Much of the hypothetical debate is based on how much Evans will command.

And please note that I do mean command, and not demand, because Evans is enjoying the type of year that most impending free agents can only dream of, and we can’t lose sight of what would be best for the player.

I know which route I would take, and at the risk of being labelled greedy, I wouldn’t hesitate to ‘secure the bag’, as the youths say. Fortunately, I don’t have the talent necessary to reach Evans’ level, and I don’t know what he’s thinking, so it’s a moot point.

What we do know is that Evans will rightfully be given a significant raise this summer, and the deal is probably going to be the first and only time he can take advantage of free agency to sign a rich, max-term contract. That’s not to say Evans will necessarily ask for an unreasonable amount, and I’d be surprised if he didn’t want to keep playing for the team that drafted him, but in no way, shape, or form does Evans owe the Habs a hometown discount.

To be perfectly frank, it would be unwise to throw away such a perfect situation. The stars don’t always align during a contract year.

I realize that may not be a popular take, but the fact that Evans is essentially the only player that emerged from a regime that never bothered to even look up the word ‘development’, it’s only fair to say he’s worked hard enough to make whatever decision suits himself and his family in the long run.

If he makes that decision to seek greener pastures, we can’t fault him for looking out for his family.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

Evans won’t keep scoring on every third shot, and investing somewhere in the range of three to four million dollars per season on a player who has spent the bulk of his career on the fourth line has all the makings of a potential landmine in a salary-cap world.

Conversely, his value to the team, which goes well beyond scoring goals, is at no risk of dissipating in the near future.

If the team truly is ready to take the next step in the rebuild, Evans can most certainly play an important role. Trading him at the deadline could yield a very good return, but it would almost assuredly hamper the team’s short to midterm goals.

Fortunately, there’s still a lot of hockey left to play, and while Evans’ play in the first half of the year puts him in a fantastic position for a well-deserved raise, the answer to whether the Canadiens should trade him or extend him simply cannot be answered, at least not yet.

(Editor’s Note: I do apologize for any mistakes in this particular article. I’m currently in a forest somewhere in Western Quebec, and the internet is far from remarkable. But the scenery is perfect, the ice fishing is good for the soul, and the walleye are delicious.)