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Jacob Fowler, Montreal Canadiens (Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images)

Canadiens Need Just Average Goaltending…the Numbers Prove It

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By William Bourget | Last updated Mar 19, 2026 9:15 AM ET

For years, the Montreal Canadiens have been defined by elite goaltending. From Carey Price to the constant search for stability since his departure, the narrative has often suggested that the Habs need a star between the pipes to compete. But this season is telling a different story, one backed by numbers that are hard to ignore.

The Numbers Tell the Story

If there’s one stat that perfectly captures the Canadiens’ formula for success this season, it’s this: Montreal has not lost a single game in regulation when their goaltender posts a save percentage (SV%) of .900 or better. Let that sink in.

The Canadiens hold a remarkable 27-0-3 record in games where their goalie finishes with at least a .900 SV%. That’s not just good, it’s dominant. On the flip side, when goaltending dips below that threshold, the results are drastically different, with the team going 10-19-7.

The trend becomes even clearer when looking at goals allowed. When Montreal gives up three goals or fewer, they boast an outstanding 34-2-3 record. In other words, if the goaltending is even remotely steady, the Canadiens are almost impossible to beat in regulation. These numbers don’t suggest the need for elite, game-stealing performances every night. Instead, they point to something much more sustainable: competence and consistency.

It’s Simple Hockey Logic

At its core, this isn’t revolutionary. Teams that allow fewer goals tend to win more games. That’s hockey 101. But what makes the Canadiens’ case interesting is how little they actually need from their goaltenders to succeed.

Montreal is currently fourth in the NHL in goals scored per game at 3.49, a number that highlights just how potent their offence has been. This is not a team scraping for goals or relying on 2-1 wins to survive. They can score, and they can score in bunches. That offensive firepower changes the equation.

Instead of needing a goalie to steal games, the Canadiens simply need someone who won’t lose them. A .900 SV% is good, but not elite. But for Montreal, average goaltending paired with high-end scoring has been more than enough to tilt games in their favour.

It also explains why their losses tend to snowball when goaltending falters. When the SV% drops below .900, it’s often because multiple goals are going in quickly, forcing the Canadiens to chase games. Even with a strong offence, that’s a tough way to win consistently. So while the logic is simple, stop more pucks, win more games, the context matters. The Canadiens don’t need brilliance. They need stability.

Fowler and Dobes

This is where the current goaltending situation becomes especially relevant. With the Canadiens leaning more on younger options like Jacob Fowler and Jakub Dobes, the expectation shouldn’t be for them to come in and play like franchise saviours. That’s not only unrealistic, it’s unnecessary. The numbers show exactly what’s required: give the team a chance.

If Fowler or Dobes can consistently hover around that .900 SV% mark, the Canadiens are more than capable of doing the rest. The offence will generate chances. The team structure, when executed properly, will limit high-danger opportunities. Everything is in place for success, provided the goaltending doesn’t collapse. And that’s an important distinction.

Young goalies often feel pressure to prove themselves with highlight-reel saves and game-stealing performances. But in Montreal’s current setup, that mindset could actually be counterproductive. Overcommitting, overplaying, or trying to do too much can lead to the exact type of breakdowns the Canadiens can’t afford. Instead, the focus should be on positioning, rebound control, and composure. Make the first save. Limit second chances. Stay calm. Do the basics well. Because for this team, that’s enough.

If anything, the Canadiens are building a model that’s more sustainable long-term. Rather than relying on one elite goaltender to mask flaws, they’re developing a system where team offence and structure carry the load, and the goalie plays a supporting, yet still crucial, role.

If Fowler and Dobes can embrace that role, not as heroes, but as stabilizers, the Canadiens might not just stay in the race. They might become a legitimate threat.