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The Montreal Canadiens (2-2-0) have played just four games at this point in the 2024-25 season, which means we will have to take the upcoming analysis with a grain of salt. On that note, possession metrics were invented to come to a logical conclusion based on a smaller sample size.
In other words, the stats are worth monitoring, but they aren’t worthy of mass panic, yet.
Montreal Canadiens Team Statistics
While it made sense to trade both Jordan Harris and Johnathan Kovacevic in the summer, it also meant the Habs lost two of their best possession defencemen. Arber Xhekaj, the player who maintained the best stats among all defencemen last year, is still in the mix, but he’s playing in a third-pairing role, which limits some of his impact.
Regardless, the decision to trade both defencemen was a long-term play that is tied into short-term pain, as evidenced by the fact that the Canadiens are the worst possession team in the NHL at the moment.
They’ve controlled slightly more than 38 percent of the shots in the first four games of the season (ranked 32nd), and their share of expected goals is rather poor as well, at 33 percent (ranked 32nd). They aren’t the worst team when it comes to high-danger scoring chances, that honour belongs to the Chicago Blackhawks (32.3 percent), but the Habs aren’t far off, with 37.5 percent (ranked 31st).
The most concerning aspect of their cratering stats is that they’ve scored on 11 percent of their even-strength shots, which is quite good (ranked 7th).
Simply put, the Habs have been trounced at 5v5 to start the season, and if not for the play of Samuel Montembeault, they’d probably be sitting with zero points in the bank, rather than four. The Habs have allowed the most shots per 60 at 5v5 (80.4), while producing the fewest (50.1).
Individual Statistics
As you’d expect, the individual statistics aren’t much better than the team stats, but there is one player who has surprised in the early parts of the 2024-25 season: Brendan Gallagher.
Okay, it’s not surprising if you’ve followed my analysis, but if you join in the chorus on social media that calls for his head every game, you should know Gallagher is the only player to control over 50 percent of the shots during his shifts this season (52.8 percent). Rookie Emil Heineman, who is enjoying a great start to his NHL career, is second on the team, with 48.2 percent. He’s also currently ranked first on the team in expected goals, with 53.1 percent. You could even argue Heineman has been the team’s player from a pure statistical standpoint.
Despite Cole Caufield’s uptick in goals, the first line has been outplayed by a wide margin since the start of the season, with both Caufield (32 percent) and Nick Suzuki (30.7) among the lowest shot share players in the lineup. Of course, usage comes into play, but you still want to see more from your top line if you’re attempting to take the next step in the rebuild.
Defensive Look
The top defencemen in shot share is none other than Arber Xhekaj, who is sitting at 47.7 percent. Yes, he plays on the third pairing, but he’s outplayed every other Canadiens blueliner who has been used in the same situation, and that extends to last season. The Canadiens have many roster issues, but Xhekaj is not one of them.
Ideally, Kaiden Guhle would be used on his natural side, but for now he’s stuck on the right, which limits his ability to quickly corral pucks and relaunch the play. As for rookies Oliver Kapanen and Lane Hutson, they’re close to the top of most statistical categories than the bottom, an encouraging sign when it comes to the team’s future.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
The best way to describe the Canadiens’ play to start the season is that it has been ugly, but it’s still quite early. The forwards will have to step it up when it comes to generating offence, though much of that has to do with the team’s inability to generate controlled exits. The defencemen will have to do a much better job protecting Montembeault. They must limit the quality chances if the team hopes to avoid finishing in the bottom-five of the NHL standings again.
That being said, perhaps another top 5 pick is exactly what the doctor ordered for one of the youngest teams in the NHL.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.
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TODAY'S BEST
Status of Canadiens’ Kirby Dach Explains Trade Talk
Montreal Canadiens forward Kirby Dach may not be ready for the start of the 2025-26 season, according to a report by Maxime Truman of Dans Les Coulisses. Despite earlier assurances from the Canadiens in February that Dach would be fully recovered from knee surgery in time for training camp, signs now point to continued rehab and a delayed return. In a post translated from French to English, Truman writes, “I repeat: five months after his most recent knee surgery and about forty days before the start of training camp, Kirby Dach is still not recovered and ready to play.” Dach has been spending the summer in Edmonton with teammate Kaiden Guhle, but hasn’t been seen skating at full speed. In fact, he’s only been spotted on the ice once in Brossard this offseason, and appeared to be holding back. Gym sightings also suggest he’s using light weights during workouts, far from the expectations of an NHL-caliber player nearing camp readiness. Dach has remained quiet on social media, with no public updates since November 2024. While the Canadiens are hopeful their projected second-line center can be a key piece of a potential playoff push, his uncertain status is becoming a growing concern. With only weeks to go before training camp, Dach’s absence would leave a major gap in Montreal’s forward group — one that won’t be easily filled if his recovery continues to stall. Canadiens Keeping Eyes Open for 2nd Line Center Dach’s status could explain why the Canadiens are so frequently mentioned when it comes to trade speculation for a second-line center. They’ve been loosely linked to several names this summer, even if nothing is imminent. They aren’t deep behind Nick Suzuki up the middle, and if Dach is going to miss any time, or the Canadiens believe he’ll be a question mark even if healthy to start the year, GM Kent Hughes might decide to pull the trigger on a trade.
Cowboys' problem with Micah Parsons may hand Steelers a franchise QB
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been one of the most-talked-about NFL organizations throughout the course of the 2025 offseason. One of the biggest headlines that was attached to the franchise involved a rare May trade that sent George Pickens to the Dallas Cowboys. Many expected the wide receiver to be dealt before or during the NFL Draft, but after a move didn't occur, it was believed that he would play out the final year of his rookie contract in the Steel City. Now, he is teaming up with CeeDee Lamb in the NFC, and a duo has been formed that could be very dangerous. Unfortunately for fans of the Cowboys, the two wide receivers have not been the talk of Dallas' training camp. Team owner Jerry Jones is playing hardball with edge-rusher Micah Parsons, and the talented defender recently requested a trade. The decision not to pay Parsons yet has left Jones under intense scrutiny, given the fact that the pass-rusher is one of the league's best. Jones' recent comments also show how dysfunctional the situation has become. In a recent appearance on ESPN's "Get Up," respected analyst Dan Orlovsky found a way to relate Parsons' situation to quarterback Dak Prescott, insinuating that if Jones does indeed trade Parsons, Prescott's Super Bowl window in Dallas would close. "If they trade [Parsons], and I don't think they do, if they trade him, it declares the Dak Prescott era over," Orlovsky said. "This team has no shot of winning a Super Bowl without Micah Parsons. No shot, and if you're doing it, it's to acquire a ton of first-round picks, so you have the ammunition to go get an Arch Manning of the future." The Steelers are set to have 12 draft picks in 2026, which gives the front office plenty of options when it comes to bringing in the next franchise quarterback. Instead of drafting one, however, could an available Prescott be a target for general manager Omar Khan? Orlovsky believes trading Parsons away would upset the Cowboys' best players. "There's no way that you can go to your locker room with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, some of the first-round picks you have on your offensive line, Trevon Diggs, and go, 'Hey, go beat Philadelphia when you don't have Micah Parsons. Go beat the Rams when you don't have Micah Parsons.' Your locker room will sit there and go like, 'Oh, well you've obviously moved on, so we're going to start our process of moving on as well.'" Any team interested in acquiring Prescott would have to take a long look at his contract. Some of the cap hits are astronomical in the coming years, but Khan is known to be a guru when it comes to the finances in deals. There's no reason to believe that he couldn't make something work for Prescott if a trade were to happen during the 2026 offseason. Fans in Dallas shouldn't be panicking just yet, but there were already some rumors about Prescott's long-term position with the Cowboys during the 2025 offseason. Certain reports were eventually debunked because it was quite literally impossible for Jones to entertain the idea of dealing Prescott after the franchise altered the quarterback's contract. Prescott has a no-trade clause, but that can always be waived, especially if he is upset about how Jones moves forward. If the Cowboys trade Parsons and pick up a plethora of draft capital, and then go on to invest in a first-round signal-caller, Prescott may be requesting to be traded as well. That's a long way away from happening, but the Steelers immediately come to mind as a team that would likely be interested. The Steelers' best-case scenario would be the emergence of Will Howard It's not easy to make a name for oneself in the NFL, and it's even tougher for players like Will Howard who were drafted in the sixth round. Pittsburgh will be in the quarterback market once again in 2026 if Aaron Rodgers is serious about retirement, so it would be a fantastic development if Howard solidifies himself as the next starter in the Steel City.
Celtics' moves suggest new guard will be traded — eventually
The Boston Celtics got under the second luxury-tax apron by trading Georges Niang to the Utah Jazz Tuesday. The move also gives them a huge incentive to deal their most expensive new player. The Celtics have dramatically reduced their payroll in the wake of Jayson Tatum's Achilles injury. With their superstar unlikely to play in 2025-26, the Celtics traded away starters Jrue Holiday ($94.4M for three years, plus a $37.2M player option in 2027-28) and Kristaps Porzingis ($30.7M next season). They also let Luke Kornet ($2.8M) leave as a free agent, and Al Horford ($9.5M) is almost certainly gone as well. They received Georges Niang ($8.2M) in the Porzingis deal, but traded him Tuesday for undrafted R.J. Luis Jr., a rookie on a two-way deal. That effectively takes Niang's full salary of their books and gets them under the second luxury-tax apron, freeing them from the penalties and restrictions that go along with second-apron status. According to cap expert Yossi Gozlan, the Celtics have saved a whopping $286M in salary and taxes with their moves. Still, the team can reap a larger long-term reward by dropping below the luxury tax entirely, which requires reducing their payroll by just over $12M more. The Celtics don't seem inclined to trade Jaylen Brown, Derrick White or Payton Pritchard, wanting to keep some core members of their 2024 title team together for Tatum's return. Sam Hauser is on an affordable four-year, $45M deal, but losing his $10M salary wouldn't get them under the tax line. That's why Anfernee Simons, acquired in the Holiday trade, is likely not long for Boston. The 26-year-old guard makes $27.7M in the last year of his contract, making him the perfect trade piece to get Boston under the luxury tax. Not only would getting under the tax line free the Celtics of their tax obligations and save them as much as $40M, but it would make them eligible to share in the money from tax-paying teams. The Celtics would also be able to avoid the dreaded repeater tax penalties, which make every dollar over the luxury-tax number progressively more expensive every year a team stays over the tax line. This doesn't mean Simons is going to be traded this summer. Boston has until the Feb. 5 trade deadline to move Simons, since luxury tax is calculated on the team's total payroll the last day of the season. But given the massive savings they'd get back from losing Simons' salary, it seems inevitable. The Celtics have lost a lot of talent this summer, but they've saved a tremendous amount of money in the process. They might have to attach draft capital to get off Simons' deal, but if he plays well in Boston, he might even bring back something in a trade next season. Tatum's injury threw a huge wrench in the Celtics' plans. If they can use this season to get under the luxury tax, they'll have the flexibility to reload and contend again when their star is back in a year.
Cubs president admits trade-deadline gamble 'not looking like a good bet'
The Chicago Cubs were in the market for a starting pitching upgrade prior to the 2025 trade deadline. However, instead of trading top prospects for a top-shelf pitcher, they made a smaller bet on former Washington Nationals pitcher Mike Soroka. So far, it is not looking like a great bet. Even president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is admitting that it is not. Soroka is already on the injured list after being removed from his first start with the Cubs due to shoulder discomfort. What makes it even more concerning is that the Cubs knew Soroka had experienced a slight dip in his velocity in his starts leading up to the trade deadline. Soroka underwent an MRI just to rule out anything problematic, with all of the results coming back clean. Still, the Cubs were aware of the drop in velocity — usually a big indicator of some sort of arm problem — and decided to go forward with the trade anyway. Hoyer admitted on Tuesday that the move was a risk and that it's not looking like a good bet right now. He also added that if it does not work out, it all falls on him. "We knew the velocity was trending down," Hoyer said Tuesday afternoon, via ESPN's Jesse Rogers. "We talked through that extensively. Given the market, given the asking price ... we felt like it was a good bet to make. Right now, it's not looking like a good bet." The fact that Soroka is having injury issues should not be much of a surprise. Much of his career has been sidetracked by injury issues, costing him all of 2021 and 2022, and limiting him to just 49 appearances over the past two-and-a-half seasons. That track record, along with the drop in velocity, should have set off major alarm bells for the Cubs. The good news is they did not trade any of their elite prospects for Soroka, but it still does not absolve Hoyer and the front office of blame. The 65-47 Cubs are in a position where they have a chance to make a serious run at the National League pennant this season, and they are facing pressure to win given the uncertain future of star outfielder Kyle Tucker. Tucker is likely to test the free-agent market this offseason and leave for the highest bidder, making him a very important one-year rental. There should have been incentive to make a big move at the trade deadline to not only keep up with the other teams in the league, but better position themselves to win. They did not want to pay the top prospect capital and went for a cheaper option. It is not looking like a promising path and could have the Cubs, and their fans, asking "what if" at the end of the season.
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