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Canadiens Stats Pack: Heineman and Xhekaj Stand Out

Originally posted on Montreal Hockey Now | By Marc Dumont | Last updated Oct 17, 2024 5:23 PM ET

The Montreal Canadiens (2-2-0) have played just four games at this point in the 2024-25 season, which means we will have to take the upcoming analysis with a grain of salt. On that note, possession metrics were invented to come to a logical conclusion based on a smaller sample size.

In other words, the stats are worth monitoring, but they aren’t worthy of mass panic, yet.

Montreal Canadiens Team Statistics

While it made sense to trade both Jordan Harris and Johnathan Kovacevic in the summer, it also meant the Habs lost two of their best possession defencemen. Arber Xhekaj, the player who maintained the best stats among all defencemen last year, is still in the mix, but he’s playing in a third-pairing role, which limits some of his impact.

Regardless, the decision to trade both defencemen was a long-term play that is tied into short-term pain, as evidenced by the fact that the Canadiens are the worst possession team in the NHL at the moment.

They’ve controlled slightly more than 38 percent of the shots in the first four games of the season (ranked 32nd), and their share of expected goals is rather poor as well, at 33 percent (ranked 32nd). They aren’t the worst team when it comes to high-danger scoring chances, that honour belongs to the Chicago Blackhawks (32.3 percent), but the Habs aren’t far off, with 37.5 percent (ranked 31st).

The most concerning aspect of their cratering stats is that they’ve scored on 11 percent of their even-strength shots, which is quite good (ranked 7th).

Simply put, the Habs have been trounced at 5v5 to start the season, and if not for the play of Samuel Montembeault, they’d probably be sitting with zero points in the bank, rather than four. The Habs have allowed the most shots per 60 at 5v5 (80.4), while producing the fewest (50.1).

Via Montreal Hockey Now

Individual Statistics

As you’d expect, the individual statistics aren’t much better than the team stats, but there is one player who has surprised in the early parts of the 2024-25 season: Brendan Gallagher.

Okay, it’s not surprising if you’ve followed my analysis, but if you join in the chorus on social media that calls for his head every game, you should know Gallagher is the only player to control over 50 percent of the shots during his shifts this season (52.8 percent). Rookie Emil Heineman, who is enjoying a great start to his NHL career, is second on the team, with 48.2 percent. He’s also currently ranked first on the team in expected goals, with 53.1 percent. You could even argue Heineman has been the team’s player from a pure statistical standpoint.

Despite Cole Caufield’s uptick in goals, the first line has been outplayed by a wide margin since the start of the season, with both Caufield (32 percent) and Nick Suzuki (30.7) among the lowest shot share players in the lineup. Of course, usage comes into play, but you still want to see more from your top line if you’re attempting to take the next step in the rebuild.

Defensive Look

Via Montreal Hockey Now

The top defencemen in shot share is none other than Arber Xhekaj, who is sitting at 47.7 percent. Yes, he plays on the third pairing, but he’s outplayed every other Canadiens blueliner who has been used in the same situation, and that extends to last season. The Canadiens have many roster issues, but Xhekaj is not one of them.

Ideally, Kaiden Guhle would be used on his natural side, but for now he’s stuck on the right, which limits his ability to quickly corral pucks and relaunch the play. As for rookies Oliver Kapanen and Lane Hutson, they’re close to the top of most statistical categories than the bottom, an encouraging sign when it comes to the team’s future.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

The best way to describe the Canadiens’ play to start the season is that it has been ugly, but it’s still quite early. The forwards will have to step it up when it comes to generating offence, though much of that has to do with the team’s inability to generate controlled exits. The defencemen will have to do a much better job protecting Montembeault. They must limit the quality chances if the team hopes to avoid finishing in the bottom-five of the NHL standings again.

That being said, perhaps another top 5 pick is exactly what the doctor ordered for one of the youngest teams in the NHL.

All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.

This article first appeared on Montreal Hockey Now and was syndicated with permission.

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