Connor McDavid Is Having His Most Disappointing NHL Season

Having just turned 28, McDavid is at an age where the intersection between a player’s physical ability and experiential savvy is at its peak. But he isn’t putting up the best numbers of his career. Instead, his stats are the worst they’ve been in years.

His average of 1.42 points per game is his lowest since 2017-18. He’s averaging the fewest shots per game since he was an NHL rookie in 2015-16. His hits per game, faceoff percentage, and plus/minus are all their lowest since 2019-20.

But the most staggering decline has been in McDavid’s goal totals. Two seasons ago, he scored 64 times, the third most in an NHL season since 1995-96. That number dropped to 32 in 2023-24. Now he’s on pace to score 30 times this season, which would leave him with fewer goals over the last two seasons combined than he scored in 2022-23 alone.

McDavid Has Struggled to Score Recently

While his numbers are declining season over season, McDavid’s drop-off has come into play recently. He’s scored just three times in the last 16 games, which is his fewest goals over a 16-game span since he was a rookie. He has just one game-winning goal since Nov. 19.

Last month, he became the first player in Oilers history to record a plus/minus below minus-2 for three consecutive games. He had the worst plus/minus in the NHL for the month of February, a rating of minus-11.

McDavid never had a streak of more than five games with less than three shots in his entire NHL career, before going 10 consecutive games without more than two shots from Dec. 12 to Jan. 3. He’s only got five shots in Edmonton’s last three games.

McDavid Doesn’t Look Like Himself

There’s no shortage of stats that suggest McDavid is struggling, but such data only ever tells part of the story. An objective perspective requires the eye test, too. In that respect, he also comes up short. It would be grossly unfair to say he looks lethargic, but at the same time, he doesn’t quite look like himself. At least, not the version of him that fans have come to know and love these last number of seasons.

So, what’s going on? Could McDavid simply be burnt out? The Oilers have played a ton of hockey over the last three and a half seasons, including a run to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final in 2024. Since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, he has played a combined 351 regular season and playoff games, the sixth most among all NHL forwards in that span.

He was also carrying the weight of a nation on his back during the recent 4 Nations Face-Off, representing Canada at the inaugural event in February while the vast majority of NHL players had a couple of weeks off.

The thing is, McDavid was like himself at the 4 Nations Face-Off, notching three goals, including the iconic overtime game-winner in the championship final against Team USA on Feb. 20. The Richmond Hill native scored more times in four games with Team Canada than he has in his last 13 games with the Oilers.

Could it be that his contract status is weighing heavily on McDavid? His current deal is set to expire on July 1, 2026, meaning that the Oilers will want to sign him to a long-term extension in the coming offseason, lest he heads into 2025-26 as a pending free agent. McDavid’s next deal will almost certainly be the richest in the NHL history, regardless of who’s cutting the cheque.

Oilers Need to Turn Things Around

As a team, the Oilers have been in a funk, going 4-8-0 over their last 12 games, which is no surprise considering how many of Edmonton’s players are struggling on an individual basis. Since the 4 Nations Face-Off, Edmonton has dropped from first to third in the Pacific Division.

Yet, there’s still time to get back on track before the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Once the postseason starts, it’s a whole new game. The Oilers are the defending Western Conference champions, and McDavid is the reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner. Can the captain and his team summon the magic of 2024? If so, this disappointing stretch may easily be forgotten. If not, there will be some serious soul-searching this spring and summer.

The Oilers are back in action tonight (March 16) when they close out their four-game road trip with a game against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden.