Contract Projections for Red Wings’ 2025 RFAs

Ultimately, he played mostly bottom-six minutes and recorded 24 points in 75 games. Not exactly “big raise” numbers. 

That said, this is very similar to what happened with Joe Veleno a few years ago. He bet on himself with a one-year, $825,000 contract, too, produced roughly the same as Berggren, and landed a two-year, $2.075 million AAV deal. The main difference is that Veleno is a center, and Berggren is a wing. That counts for something in contract negotiations.

When reviewing my model’s outputs for Berggren, Jesper Boqvist of the Florida Panthers kept coming up. The two had similar 2024-25 seasons, statistically speaking, and held similar roles. Boqvist signed a two-year extension in March. It came with a $1.5 million AAV. In my opinion, this is a strong comparable for Berggren’s next deal. 

Given the $95.5 million salary cap ceiling next year, this is fine. It’s a fair deal for what Berggren has been able to produce – most recently, 24 points in 75 games. 

It’s possible Berggren prefers to run it back with another one-year deal, and I can see that triggering arbitration since the Red Wings would probably prefer another year given the low AAV. Still, Boqvist’s deal is a fair one.

Projection: Two years, $1.5 million AAV.

Elmer Soderblom’s Next Red Wings Contract

This will be an interesting one. On one hand, Soderblom’s statistical comparables are pretty strong – Zach Benson and Trent Frederic, plus Michael Rasmussen. Surely, his representatives will attempt to frame the negotiation with this lens. 

But on the other hand, Soderblom only suited up for 26 games this season. Not due to injury – he spent a majority of the year in Grand Rapids before earning a call-up. Overall, he has 19 points in 47 career NHL games. His AHL box score numbers aren’t earth-shattering, either.

This context matters. My contract model suggests a two-year deal with an AAV between $1.7 and $2.7 million based on his comparables, the current salary cap environment, and other factors. That said, I can see Soderblom taking a one-year, prove-it contract, which would be good value for the Red Wings. Even though arbitration is an option here, I believe the team has a stronger case here. Results are results.

Projection: One year, $1.15 million AAV.

Detroit’s Plan for Albert Johansson

Like Soderblom, Johansson had strong statistical comparables, but his raw totals were somewhat unimpressive. Henri Jokiharju, Kevin Bahl, Matthew Kessel, and 2022-23 Mikey Anderson all profiled similarly to Johansson. 

I mention the particular year for Anderson because he signed an eight-year, $4.125 million AAV that summer. I don’t think Johansson will get an eight-year deal, but having similar statistical outputs certainly helps him build his case for a more lucrative contract. 

That said, nine points in 61 games does not help. Johansson had a good first year in the NHL, but was not impressive by any means. A solid, third-pairing-caliber defenseman. 

I don’t see this one going to arbitration, either. Detroit’s case would be much stronger. 

Projection: Two years, $1.2 million AAV.

Red Wings & Qualifying Offers

As a refresher, qualifying offers are one-year contracts that come with a slight raise from the prior year. Players can either accept the offer or hold out for a better one. If the Red Wings decline to issue a qualifying offer to a player, they become an unrestricted free agent.

Final Word

If these contracts were signed as is, then the Red Wings would have $76,332,539 committed to 10 forwards, six defensemen, and two goalies next season. That would leave $19,167,461 in cap space to address Detroit’s remaining needs.

In my opinion, the Red Wings are in great shape salary cap-wise heading into the offseason. They could also add to their cap space via trade or buyout if they so choose. Stay tuned for more from The Hockey Writers on how the Red Wings can leverage their cap space to build out their 2025-26 roster.

Data courtesy of PuckPedia and Natural Stat Trick.