Could the Red Wings Actually Improve Without Larkin?

Larkin or no Larkin, this team missed the playoffs because of some pretty serious issues. Let’s start with what needs to be addressed before we get into how a Dylan Larkin return might factor into fixing them.

The main flaw with the Detroit Red Wings over the past two seasons has been their even-strength offense. Detroit has fixtures at the top of the lineup that made the offense passable at times. Alex DeBrincat was good for 62 even-strength points while playing alongside some pretty mediocre linemates in Andrew Copp and Patrick Kane. Lucas Raymond was also good for 49 points at even strength without much support on the wing. Detroit has two stars who raise the floor of the top six to “good enough,” but it was the team’s depth scoring that ultimately did them in this season.

Detroit recorded only 101 goals outside of their top six forwards (assuming Emmitt Finnie occupies a top-line wing spot). If you exclude the 40 goals that came from Red Wings defencemen, that leaves Detroit with a whopping 61 goals from its bottom-six forwards across the entire season. For Detroit to improve, they need to bring more talent into the bottom six.

The good news is that Emmitt Finnie, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, and Carter Mazur all seem like locks to get some serious run, which should provide the team with an injection of offense. Ideally, one solid free-agent pickup for the depth of this roster should be enough to bring them up to snuff. If Andrew Copp gets pushed down into the bottom six by way of new additions and Patrick Kane moves into a third-line role, the Red Wings should have that issue largely addressed internally this offseason. The problem is getting those two top-six forwards shifted down in the lineup.

If I had to pick one weakness, though, the Red Wings’ biggest issue was speed. Obviously, losing Dylan Larkin would seriously hurt their foot speed (which I’ll get into later), but the injection of youth should help phase out some of the slower bodies in the lineup. Simply swapping David Perron, James van Riemsdyk, and Michael Rasmussen for rookies will undoubtedly make the Red Wings quicker. Especially ones that are known for being plus skaters like MBN and Danielson.

The rest of Detroit’s issues aren’t ones that are going to be solved by personnel. Annual March collapses, poor resilience, and slow starts to games are things that need to be addressed by the coaching staff. It hasn’t mattered who’s played, from Danielson to Perron, those issues have persisted. It’s up to Todd McLellan and the coaching staff to be at least average in March and at the start of games.

I’d like to believe that’s doable. The words “I’d like” are doing a lot of heavy lifting there, though.

How Does Subtracting Dylan Larkin Help Those Needs?

Let’s start with what Dylan Larkin leaving would do to those needs before factoring in the return he would bring. Let’s begin with the obvious: Detroit’s offense would get worse by subtracting Dylan Larkin. He helps generate offense, especially on the power play, which would no doubt suffer without him. That said, I think there’s some value in at least exploring what losing him might do for this team.

Dylan Larkin recorded only one 5-on-5 point after the New Year. For any top-line center, that is simply unacceptable. So much so that it makes you wonder what another player might have been able to do with that much ice time. I’m aware that throwing Nate Danielson into the top-line center role with those responsibilities isn’t the answer down the stretch, but I think an upper-tier second-line center could outproduce that number by a pretty comfortable margin.

Detroit gets slower without Larkin. That’s what losing one of the fastest players in the league will do to you. But if the future top-line center plays alongside Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat, Emmitt Finnie, or any other speedy winger who comes along, it’s not the end of the world. So, while Detroit loses a fast player, they’re also phasing out some of the aforementioned slower players, which will more than make up for it.

The final point is maybe the most important. The Red Wings may be less mentally fragile with a new captain at the helm. There is something to be said about leadership if the team continues to collapse down the stretch each season for seemingly avoidable reasons. Whether that’s fair to put on Larkin or not, it’s a question that will inevitably be asked if those issues disappear after a change in leadership.

What a Larkin Return Could Bring?

There’s a lot out there. Fortunately, both Dylan Larkin and Steve Yzerman seem receptive to getting a trade done that benefits each of them. The initial list of teams of Vegas, Florida, and Minnesota didn’t present valid offers, and it led to the list being expanded. Now, Utah, Tampa Bay, and Dallas (I’ve personally heard Montreal as well) can make their best offers.

There are plenty of valid options for the Red Wings. If they want current roster players, Anton Lundell and Jason Robertson are the star headliners who might end up available. Though Florida is high on Lundell, Dallas will certainly try to get a deal done with Robertson first. Even J.J. Peterka, Mavrik Bourque, and Jonas Brodin have been floated as possibilities, though it would certainly take a strong collection of surrounding assets to make those deals work.

As for futures, Utah can offer Tij Iginla and Caleb Desnoyers for Dylan Larkin (and Sebastian Cossa, who was rumored to be a fit for Utah), giving Detroit two elite prospects. Montreal might be willing to part with some combination of Michael Hage, Alexander Zharovsky, and Oliver Kapanen to get a deal done. Both packages could be extremely valuable.

Obviously, these trades do not immediately solve Detroit’s need for a first-line center. However, most of those deals push the timeline down the road while bringing in assets with more upside than Larkin. Hell, Robertson is a better player than Larkin right now. Iginla, Desnoyers, and Hage may be better than Larkin is today within a few years anyway. Adding players like that to the organization would inject some much-needed speed and upside, helping the team over the long term.

Recap

Look, Larkin is a great player, and losing him is going to hurt. But that doesn’t mean things can’t work out. Here’s something I want to mention: the Islanders lost John Tavares for nothing, and one season later, they were the second seed in the division.

It’s not a certainty, again, it’s not even likely. But with the right return and another sharp offseason move or two, hope might not be lost when it’s time to break the drought.

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