Craig Berube and the Corsi Hockey League

A less than wise man once said “Good thing the Leafs don’t play in the CHL. The Corsi Hockey League. They are doing just fine in the NHL though.” That infamous tweet was sent out during the beginning of the 2013-14 Leafs season following the Leafs unlikely playoff run the previous spring. At best that was drawing too big a conclusion from a shortened 48 game season, at worst it’s consistent with hockey’s vibes over evidence mentality.

There was a lot riding on James Reimer being a .924 save percentage goaltender forever and even though he managed a respectable .911 save percentage the following season and was aided by Jonathan Bernier taking the reins as a .922 goaltender, the Leafs came crashing back down to earth and would miss the playoffs with the Carlyle era ending the following season and the Leafs missing the playoffs three consecutive times after that tweet.

The Leafs had a 44% Corsi For in 2013, the worst in the league, they made the playoffs. The following season they had a 42.8% Corsi For and missed the playoffs. The Leafs would have a CF% over 50 in 2015-16 and still miss the playoffs, but it was the last time. During the rest of the Babcock years as well as the entirety of the Keefe years, the Leafs Corsi bottomed out at 49.8 in 2017-18, they made the playoffs every time. They also made the playoffs last season under Craig Berube but it also included the Leafs significant swing back to bottom of the league in Corsi, with a 47.4% Corsi For, fourth worst in the league behind the Blackhawks, Sharks, and Ducks.

The Leafs would also see a drop in their expected goals differential, falling to 48.5%. The Canadiens were the only team worse and the only other team with a sub 49% result to make the playoffs last season. It’s also worth noting that outside of Berube’s Stanley Cup winning debut season in St. Louis, he has never surpassed the 50% Corsi For. Last season likely wasn’t an outlier and the dump and chase, puck battle era will continue. Hopefully the hot goaltending will as well.

At a high level it’s easy to say that this looks like the Carlyle era 2.0 but the significant difference is that Carlyle was never given the personnel that Berube has to work with. The Leafs are a more talented team and even playing an uninspired style of hockey. You can also point to players like Nicolas Roy, Scott Laughton, Dakota Joshua, Brandon Carlo, and even Easton Cowan who have all been recently added to the Leafs that play a style of hockey that fits Berube’s system. Maybe that will point to both an improvement in Corsi For by putting the right personnel in the right system or the Leafs will be able to continue their success with poor differentials. There isn’t much that can be gleaned from preseason hockey and typically looking at on ice differentials when teams aren’t dressing their best lineups is just noise, but it is worth noting that the 5v5 numbers favoured the Senators in both of their matchups.

You can also point to the fact that the Leafs aren’t being built to care about the regular season. There is an attempt to play a style of hockey that works better in the playoffs. Last season the Leafs matched their best output of the decade by winning a round and finished with the worst Corsi of the playoffs. Over the past decade there have also been four Stanley Cup champions with negative Corsi differentials during their playoff runs (Berube’s Blues not being one of them.)

Maybe there is something to be said for Berube coming in midseason and tweaking Mike Yeo’s coaching system. Yeo actually had a 47% Corsi For and Berube followed up with a 52% in the remaining 63 games.

Maybe the NHL has changed. Maybe Corsi doesn’t matter as much (you can point to Utah having a 53% Corsi For and missing the playoffs last season, although you can also point to the Panthers sitting 2nd and 4th in the league respectively and making the Cup Finals.)

Maybe it’s also worth considering that Craig Berube is not specifically coaching to be low Corsi. That’s just the results being achieved. We know that low risk defensive zone plays and a dump and chase mentality lends itself to handing the puck over the opposition more frequently. Oddly enough, the historically safe way of playing hockey might be the biggest gamble in the sport right now. The hope is that making life tougher for the opposition when they have the puck and smarter positional play in the defensive zone will be an effective path to victory. Berube’s 2024-25 results show it was at least on par with what worked under Keefe, but arguably those results were achieved with a better blueline and better goaltending than Keefe ever had to work with and sustainability and the Marner-less Leafs certainly make 2025-26 different.

The Leafs roster has certainly been adapted with Berube in mind, he’s in just his second year of a four year contract, and Brad Treliving has historically given his coaches at least two full seasons before pulling the plug. Whether you are in Berube’s camp or not, he’s going to get a full look this season.