Defensive comparison between the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers

Dallas’ strength on the back-end comes from their top pair. The breakout season of Thomas Harley paired with the return of a healthy Miro Heiskanen has significantly improved the Stars’ defence. Not only has Dallas reunited one of the best pairs in hockey, but they have allowed others throughout the lineup to play less minutes while Heiskanen ramps back up to his regular playing time.

Harley is also tremendously skilled, and trails only Edmonton’s Evan Bouchard in playoff scoring among defencemen this season. His six power play points are also tied for the playoff lead. If the Oilers are going to have success against Dallas, it likely won’t be against the Stars’ top pair. Although they’ve played just 29 minutes together, per MoneyPuck their xGF% is a sparkling 73.7%.

The rest of Dallas’ defence does leave something to be desired, however. Esa Lindell and former Oiler Cody Ceci round out the second pairing, and while neither player is necessarily bad in their role, they don’t come close to the effectiveness of a Harley or Heiskanen. During his time in Edmonton, Ceci was specifically targeted during the postseason by teams who believed they could take his defensive shortcomings as an advantage. Lindell-Ceci is also a significant downgrade in the xGF department, with a paltry 44% in 185 minutes together these playoffs. The Oilers will need to exploit at least one Dallas pairing to succeed in this series, and it wouldn’t be surprising for Ceci to see plenty of his old teammate Connor McDavid charging down the ice at him.

Interestingly, Dallas’ third pairing has strong underlying numbers. Bischel-Petrovic is running a 55% xGF in 123.9 minutes, a very strong showing for the lowest pair on the depth chart. However, they also have the highest xGA per 60 minutes, at 2.28. Dallas will need this pair to simply keep their head above water and not give up any unnecessary goals or chances to an Oilers team that is currently able of rolling four strong lines at any given time.

Overall, Dallas’ defence seems to be very similar to Edmonton’s last season during their Cup run. One very strong top pair, a middle pairing that was susceptible to being exploited, and a third pair that gets the job done. The Stars have experimented with an 11/7 look at times during the playoffs, with Ilya Lyubushkin and Matt Dumba also receiving playing time.

However, in a traditional six defenceman lineup, expect to see the above pairs. Dallas’ defence isn’t a weak point per se, but it does present a couple of opportunities for the Oilers to gain a favourable matchup if they seek it out.

Edmonton’s Defence

The Oilers are expected to keep the same lineup from the Vegas series, which lined up like this:

The eternally underrated Brett Kulak has stepped into a first pairing role in the absence of Mattias Ekholm. Evan Bouchard has remained as the team’s top defenceman all season, and he’s once again elevated his play when it matters most, currently leading the playoffs in scoring among defencemen.

Both Kulak and Bouchard are capable of moving the puck quickly and with precision, something that greatly helps the breakouts that make up so much of the Edmonton offensive gameplan. Kulak-Bouchard also have great analytical numbers, with a 64.9% xGF in 83.9 minutes per MoneyPuck. The Oilers will need this top pair to keep up their level of play against Dallas’ high-powered offence led by Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, and Wyatt Johnston.

The pairing of Darnell Nurse and Troy Stecher is a recent invention from Oilers Coach Kris Knoblauch, but it’s paid dividends so far. Although they’ve only played 27.2 minutes together, their xGF% sits at 64.3% per MoneyPuck, barely trailing the top pair of Kulak-Bouchard.

Nurse is a player that often has a lot of chaos in his game, and Stecher has been like a warm blanket in the right side. He keeps the play calm and more often than not, makes the smart play to either get the puck out of trouble or alleviate pressure to allow a change. Stecher isn’t the biggest player, but you wouldn’t know it from his playstyle. He’s not afraid to get physical and his calmer play helps balance out any occasional Nurse hiccups.

The true revelation of the playoffs when it comes to Oilers defencemen is the pairing of Jake Walman and John Klingberg. Walman’s impact on the team has been massive. He’s a team-high +13 through eleven games played, and his puck moving abilities have been on full display. However, it’s the revival of the career of John Klingberg that has been unexpected. The 32-year-old is a +5 through ten games, and his skating and passing appear to have taken a time machine back to his best days as a member of the Stars. Walman-Klingberg have an absurd 66.7% xGF per MoneyPuck, and an equally astounding 3.94 expected goals per 60 minutes. They have been THE biggest factor in the Oilers defence being as stout as it has been this postseason, and the Oilers will need it to continue if they want to get past Dallas.

The Oilers also have an X-Factor on the back end. Mattias Ekholm has begun practising again with the team, and although there’s been no solid answer as to when he’ll return, it is believed he could rejoin the lineup in Games 5 or 6. The return of a healthy Ekholm would be a massive boost for an Oilers defence corps that is already playing extremely well, allowing Kulak to slide down to a more natural second pairing position. This would reunite Ekholm with Bouchard and keeping the found money pair of Walman and Klingberg together. If the Harley-Heiskanen pair ends up giving Edmonton issues, a redeployed Ekholm-Bouchard pair could prove as an answer on Edmonton’s blueline.

Overall, the Oilers seem to have the stronger, deeper defence this time around. There doesn’t seem to be an obvious pair for the Stars to attempt a matchup with. Because Edmonton’s pairs are so adept at moving the puck, they could present problems for Dallas on the counter attack. Of course, Dallas’ defence could step up to the moment and have a fantastic series, but if you made me pick, I would go with Edmonton as the team with the more favourable defensive matchups.