Depth scoring and special teams will define Oilers and Stars Western Conference Final

In fact, both of these teams have been able to put their regular seasons behind them. In the case of the Oilers, they struggled for much of the season in terms of being able to put the puck in the net, ranking 11th in the league in goals for. That’s due to a below league average shooting percentage that has rebounded well in the playoffs, rising from 8.0 percent to 10.1 percent.

For Edmonton, their depth scoring in the forward group has come up big for them — Connor Brown, Evander Kane and Corey Perry each have seven points, while Vasily Podkolzin has six, Adam Henrique and Viktor Arvidsson have four. Mattias Janmark and Trent Frederic, meanwhile, have three a piece.

It’s not as though the Oilers’ big guns have gone quiet. Connor McDavid has 17 points, Leon Draisaitl 16, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins nine and Zach Hyman eight.

Because of that in these playoffs, Edmonton’s five-on-five 3.35 goals per hour rate is right in line with their expected goals per hour rate of 3.4, while the Oilers have maintained strong defensive play in their own zone.

Dallas, meanwhile, has seen an opposite effect. Their regular season shooting percentage of 10.1 has dropped to 8.0, and while their generating a respectable 2.69 expected goals for per hour at five-on-five, they’re scoring just 1.87 goals per hour.

Their big four forwards offensively have been Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston and Mikael Granlund, who have 19, 10, eight and seven points in 13 games, respectively. But the offensive production hasn’t quite been there from the bottom of this group. Sam Steel, a fourth liner, is the next highest scoring forward with six points, while Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin have five each, Evgenii Dadonov and Mason Marchment have four, Jamie Benn has three, while Oskar Back and Collin Blackwell have one each. Jason Robertson, in his six games, has just one point.

And while their five-on-five offence may not be firing, their power play sure has, chugging along at a 30.8 percent clip — 40.9 percent at home and 17.7 percent on the road. That’s been a difference maker for them in these playoffs, despite shooting at a massive 21.8 percent.

Edmonton’s penalty kill has been a significant weak spot for them these playoffs, getting slaughtered and killing off just 66.7 percent, despite allowing signifciantly more goals against per hour than expected. While they’re much better at home, going 83.3 percent, on the road it’s a measly 57.1 percent.

And while Edmonton’s power play may not feel like it’s clicking right now, they’re still scoring at a solid clip, even though their expected goal rate is significantly higher. Dallas’ penalty kill, meanwhile, has been stingy, allowing much fewer goals against than expected.

The long and short of this, looking at shooting and save percentages, is that Dallas has been lucky on special teams and Edmonton has been unlucky on special teams.

It’s easy to look at this upcoming series — which will be a slugfest, no doubt — as coming down to two key areas: depth scoring and special teams. While Edmonton will need to key on Rantanan, Hintz and the Stars’ top line, they will need to continue to choke out Dallas’ depth scorers, as Colorado and Winnipeg have found ways to do. Could we see the Oilers deploy Draisaitl in a shutdown role against Dallas’ top line?

The Oilers, meanwhile, are going to need to find a few more goals on the power play — especially on the road — and have their penalty kill start to click, especially on the road in Games 1 and 2. The good news for Edmonton is that they could be getting some reinforcements back in this series, as Mattias Ekholm is considered day-to-day, with Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch highlighting last week how Ekholm could be a boost to the penalty kill.

Game 1 of the series goes Wednesday night.