Dissecting the New Jersey Devils’ Demise in 2024-25

For reference, the Hurricanes’ fourth line (Eric Robinson, Mark Jankowski and Logan Stankoven) averaged ~0.40 points per game (P/GP) in the regular season. The Devils’ (Tomas Tatar, Justin Dowling and Nathan Bastian) averaged ~0.18 – effectively 55% less production. It’s a similar story for their respective third lines (Devils: 0.38 P/GP, Hurricanes: 0.61 P/GP).

Even when J. Hughes was healthy, the Devils were tied for 21st in even strength goals; they dropped to 26th in his absence. (via Natural Stat Trick)

Yet, at the Christmas Break they had the second-most points in the entire NHL, getting by on heaters from Stefan Noesen and Paul Cotter (combined 0.51 P/GP pre-Christmas, 0.30 after) and historically-good, yet unsustainable shot suppression.

Prior to the season, Fitzgerald told media, “I wasn’t worried about offense with this group. We’ve got enough offense here.” The Devils were a top 10 scoring team in 2023-24, but that was in part due to the scoring prowess of Tyler Toffoli, who was on pace for ~35 goals. When he got dealt at the deadline to the Winnipeg Jets, he was never adequately replaced.

Thus, Fitzgerald still believed in his process: “A guy like Dawson Mercer is going to get an opportunity to continue to grow and explode,” he said. “And then it’s by committee. You’re hoping that the [Tomas] Tatar’s and [Paul] Cotter’s and the [Stefan] Noesen’s are all chipping in and in that 15-goal [range] to make up the goal difference.”

It’s safe to say that did not really happen. Mercer, after a career-worst 33-point season in 2023-24, only bettered his total by three points. While he remains a valuable part of the team, it appears the narrative needs to shift as he isn’t living up to the top six potential he was once touted to have.

Tatar had just seven goals and 17 points – a far cry from the 48-point season from 2022-23 that the Devils were hoping to replicate when they inked him to a one-year deal, despite rumors of him considering leaving the NHL to play in Europe. Cotter was a very valuable fourth liner and brought some needed physicality, but had just 14 points after the month of October. Similarly, Noesen scored eight 5v5 goals before Christmas, but did not have a single one in the 41 games to follow.

This, in combination with other players (Dowling, Bastian, Curtis Lazar, Kurtis MacDermid) being largely ineffective made for a bottom-six that almost never contributed. In fact, from Nov. 30 to Feb. 28, the Devils did not have one single goal from a center not named J. Hughes or Hischier. That’s three months!

General manager Tom Fitzgerald opted not to go for any big names at the deadline, as among a few minor acquisitions, Cody Glass was the only regular part of the forward group. While asking prices were sky high, other teams made the sacrifice and are reaping the benefits of playoff success accordingly. It’s also an indictment on the ability of the forward group sans-J. Hughes if his absence alone meant a playoff run became unrealistic.

When The Hockey Writers asked Fitzgerald if he thought there was any disappointment among his players for the lack of bringing in a high-end talent, he said, “I’m not sure. It’s a great question. I think there’s always excitement when people are added to the room, but when people aren’t, I don’t think there’s a disappointment. I think it’s just reality…a belief that the guys in that room are going to be the guys who are going to have to do this.”

Narrator: They didn’t.

Injuries Make a Bad Situation Worse

While the depth clearly kept the Devils in a spot where they likely couldn’t make a run, some key injuries made things much worse. It’s unsettling to any Devils fan that J. Hughes hurt his shoulder again and required surgery. He had 70 points in 62 games, often looking like his typical dominant self offensively. He also took major strides in his defensive game, as he was on pace to be plus-16. He even became a valuable part of the penalty kill.

Later season injuries to Jonas Siegenthaler and Dougie Hamilton further threw a wrench in things. Siegenthaler returned for Games 3-5 of Round 1 and gutted out some pretty impressive performances. Hamilton did not look like his possession-dominant self whatsoever, finishing the series with just two assists and a minus-3 rating.

Brenden Dillon hit the ice in an awkward collision in Game 1 and did not return for the rest of the series. Luke Hughes got tangled up moments later and similarly never returned. Then in Game 3, Johnathan Kovacevic left with an undisclosed injury and also never returned. Brett Pesce was playing at “way less than 100%,” according to Keefe. Even with J. Hughes and a much more capable forward core, it would have been very difficult to overcome that many injuries all at once.

While some, like the J. Hughes injury, were completely unavoidable freak accidents, it’s extremely rare that nearly an entire defensive corps drops all around the same time. When THW asked Fitzgerald whether he felt training programs or staff needed to be evaluated prior to last offseason, he responded:

“Staff? No. to be quite honest, I think we’re at the top when it comes to Sport Science and understanding where our guys are at and where we can push them. It’s just pushing them and players accepting it. You know, they get enough days off, that’s for sure, through the [Player’s Association]. But when we go to work, we work. I ask you for an hour a day, that’s it. So, you should be able to handle a really crisp skate in March after a four [games] in five [days]. It doesn’t matter to me, it’s a mindset [thing], so that’s where I’d like to get to. I want the game to be easy for our players and the only way to do that is to be in the best possible shape we can be.”

– General manager Tom Fitzgerald to The Hockey Writers

We’ll likely get an update on some injured players in the coming days and whether or not their status is in jeopardy heading into the 2025-26 season. With that being said: there are certainly some reasons for positivity among Devils fans, despite their rough final outcome.

Reasons for Positivity Moving Forward

First, the Devils showed a ton of resilience this season. In games following a loss, they were 24-13-2, showcasing some strong mental fortitude. They hung with Carolina in every game except for Game 1, instead letting a dry special teams spell become the difference. At even strength, they outscored one of the best teams in the league in that regard (10-9). Given their roster depletion, that was commendable. After their Game 3 win where they gutted it out in double overtime despite being down a defenseman, Keefe said, “I learned a lot about the character of this team.” If it weren’t for the special team struggles, they could have won the series.

Keefe also fixed one of the areas that the Devils needed most improvement on coming in: the defense. The Devils went from a below average defensive team to one of the most stifling, finishing fifth in goals allowed. Nearly all players saw an uptick in their individual defensive metrics in Keefe’s system. On a similar note, both Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen appeared to completely fix the goaltending issue. Combined, they stopped an incredible +27.7 goals above expected (via MoneyPuck). In limited time (6 games), Nico Daws stopped +4.9 goals above expected.

Without J. Hughes, the Devils’ stars all were excellent in the postseason, an extension of their regular season play. Meier, Hischier and Bratt consistently dominated the pace of play all season. This season, Meier got under the opponents’ skin effectively and scored 26 goals despite not being on the first power play until Hughes’ absence. And he did so while completely overhauling his defensive game to become above average-to-elite in that regard. Hischier will likely be in Selke talks and had an impressive 35 goal season as the Devils’ captain. He backed that up with four goals in five playoff games. Bratt broke the Devils’ single season assist record and may have been a bit unlucky with just one playoff goal and two assists; Natural Stat Trick says he generated the 7th-most ‘expected goals’ among the 316 skaters to suit up in this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Furthermore, the Devils can still utilize Erik Haula, Mercer and Ondrej Palat successfully. Combined, they out-chanced Carolina by 28 (!!) at 5v5 in Round 1. They were the second, fourth and sixth best forwards based on expected goals percentage (xGF%) in the series. All three have had previous playoff success and clearly raised their games when the time came. They (reasonably) receive criticism due to their contracts, but if they’re playing bottom-six roles, they can certainly be important pieces if their play is more like it was in April. And with the rising cap, the contrcats shouldn’t be as much of a big deal. The issue with them was more-so that the Devils weren’t deep enough to keep them in the bottom-six, where they belong at this point in time.

One player who deserves a tidbit all on his own is Simon Nemec. After a whirlwind of a season that saw him spending time in the American Hockey League (AHL) and expressing frustration, he had a memorable playoffs to make up for it. He scored the game winning goal in double overtime in Game 3. From games 3-5, he broke out with a 55.66 xGF%, consistently controlling the pace of play. He was trusted to play 22:49 on average in that span and had a plus-3 rating. The narrative on his entire season flipped for the better. After they got eliminated, Keefe said, “We’d be swept if [Nemec] doesn’t step up the way that he did. He was a huge bright spot for us.”

Luke Hughes also improved immensely prior to his injury. He had 22 points in his last 22 games and took strides in his defensive game, using his active stick and elite speed to shut down the opposition. There seems to be no question that he’ll be one of the game’s elite defensemen, if he isn’t already considered part of that category.

Lastly, the Devils have a potential stud prospect possibly arriving in New Jersey next season in Arseni Gritsyuk. It’s not a guarantee, but Fitzgerald told THW, “We’re trying to get him under contract…that’s the goal, it’s to get him over here and see what he can do.” He had an impressive 44 points in 49 games in the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) to lead all 286 U24 skaters in points-per-game (0.90). He was also a team-leading plus-22. If he’s as effective as some great hockey minds think he will be, his entry level contract will save the Devils a solid chunk of cash to upgrade the rest of the roster.

Big Offseason Ahead

Fitzgerald will absolutely need to upgrade the forward core and add some much-needed depth. The following players are either unrestricted or restricted free agents (UFA/RFA):

UFA – Tomas Tatar, Nathan Bastian, Curtis Lazar, Daniel Sprong, Justin Dowling, Brian Dumoulin, Dennis Cholowski, Jake Allen

RFA – Cody Glass, Nolan Foote, Luke Hughes

As it stands, PuckPedia projects them to have just over $12 million in cap space. That can obviously change based on re-signings, trades, etc. Stay tuned as The Hockey Writers will have all your vital Devils offseason coverage.