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Andrei Vasilevskiy hasn’t had a strong start that the Tampa Bay Lightning have needed (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Diving Into the Lightning’s Early Season Struggles

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Harrison Smajovits | Last updated Oct 22, 2025 11:10 AM ET

The Tampa Bay Lightning find themselves in unfamiliar territory, or at least territory they haven’t experienced in a long time. They currently sit at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. The only teams off to a worse start, by points percentage, in the NHL are the San Jose Sharks (.167), who are still in their endless rebuild, and the Calgary Flames (.143).

It’s been an early going fill with a lack of scoring, letting a period spiral out of control and one overtime loss after another.

Even when the Lightning have won a game, they have struggled to finish off an opponent. They led 3-0 over the Boston Bruins on Oct. 13 and had to scrape by with a 4-3 win. The only difference was when the game got out of hand for a bit. They were able to contain it quickly enough. But that’s the only time they have so far.

Last season, the Lightning lost eight total games in which they led after the first period. Six games into the season, and they’re almost halfway there (three).

Let’s take a look at some of the issues plaguing the team early on. We can try to, at least, pinpoint the problems.

5-on-5 Play Might Be a Problem For Lightning

For years, the Lightning have been one of the top scoring teams in the NHL. Just a season ago, they scored the most goals per game (3.56) and had the fifth-best power play (25.9%). So far this season, they’re 27th out of 32 teams in goals scored. The power play hasn’t been great, but it’s still at 25%, not far off from the usual rate, and it’s still tied for 10th in the NHL.

Meanwhile, the penalty kill is well above average. It’s at 90.48%, good enough for fifth in the NHL. Overall, their goals allowed per game is 3.50, which is the seventh worst in the league.

It’s logical to conclude that they haven’t been at their best during even-strength play. This is the case just one season after they showed improvement in this area.

Vasilevskiy Missed Some Training Camp, and It Shows

This isn’t meant to excuse sloppy defense and turnovers. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been put in some tough spots, and the offense hasn’t backed up some good nights. That being said, he’s not quite playing to his caliber, and the stats back it up. For starters, he has an anemic .886 save percentage (SV%) and a 3.50 goals-against average (GAA). It’s below average. There’s no way around it.

However, while these stats are valuable, we need to dig a little deeper because they can be influenced by play in front of the goalie. According to MoneyPuck, he has a goals saved above expected of negative-0.6, which is 25th in the NHL among goalies who have played at least four games, the number of games he’s played so far this season.

He’s been slightly better during 5-on-5 action (0.7) compared to when the special teams units are on the ice. His goals saved above expected during a power play is negative-0.3, and during a penalty kill, it’s negative-0.2. It’s a reverse situation compared to the team around him. He’s been slightly better at full strength, and he’s struggling more in special-teams situations. The advanced stats indicate he hasn’t looked his best, either.

Should there be concern? No, and that’s even with his injury history. He missed time during training camp out of precaution (from ‘What to Make of Andrei Vasilevskiy’s Absence During Lightning Camp?’ Tampa Bay Times, Sept. 20, 2025). Anyone who misses that time is going to feel it.

For reference, backup goalie Jonas Johansson had a normal training camp and preseason, and his stats are about where you’d expect them to be. He has a .906 SV% and a 3.06 GAA in two games.

If Vasilevskiy doesn’t improve over the next month, we can circle back to see if it’s a greater issue. For now, give him some time to get loose.

Other Key Lightning Players Have Underperformed

Two key forwards have had unusually slow starts to the season. Nikita Kucherov has just three points, two of which are goals, in four games. Last season, he had nine points in his first four games, including seven goals. While he has missed a couple of games due to illness, he hasn’t been the playmaker that he’s become known to be so far.

Brandon Hagel is another drastic example. He has one point in six games and no goals. Through six games last season, he had five goals and eight total points.

Suddenly, it’s not so surprising why scoring is an issue and why 5-on-5 play has taken a step back. Other players have stepped up when the team needed depth. But when two of a team’s top scorers go cold, it’s going to cancel it all out.

The solutions to the Lightning’s problems are obvious, but not at all helpful. If key players start to perform better, they’ll more than likely start to get back into the win column and climb back up the standings. The reality is that we have to wait and see if they can get going again. If they can’t, adjustments will have to be made.