Dylan Larkin Trade Talks Escalating

Friedman noted on this morning’s 32 Thoughts podcast that any kind of injury suffered by Larkin could cause significant damage to the trade negotiations in progress, so Detroit could have considerable motivation to keep Larkin out of the lineup in the event trade talks progress.

Based on reporting this morning, combined with the team’s decision to keep Larkin out of the lineup, it appears those trade talks have indeed progressed.

Just under a week ago, the New Jersey Devils acquired star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck from the Winnipeg Jets. That transaction brought to an end an ongoing trade saga involving the Jets goalie, one that began when Hellebuyck privately requested a trade over the summer, and then escalated when Hellebuyck’s camp made that request public.

Larkin is in a similar situation: a star player who was once the face of the only franchise he’s ever played for, who is now seeking a change of scenery via what would inevitably be a blockbuster trade.

Unlike Hellebuyck, Larkin did not fail to report to training camp and has instead played out the start of the season with Detroit. He’s been the team’s No. 1 center, just as he has every year since his 2017-18 breakout campaign, and has produced six points in 10 contests. Despite his trade request and getting stripped of the captaincy, Larkin is still playing the most minutes per game of any Red Wings forward, and holds down a central role on both sides of special teams.

Trading Larkin will undoubtedly leave a massive hole in Detroit’s lineup that will need to be filled. It’s rare that centers of Larkin’s caliber get traded at any point, let alone centers with significant term left on a market-price (or perhaps even below-market) contract. Larkin’s deal carries an $8.7MM cap hit through the 2030-31 campaign.

Because of how scarce established top-six centers are on the trade market, it’s difficult to project out exactly what the Red Wings might be able to receive in exchange for Larkin. But that is not to say that there are absolutely no comparable situations to point to. Former Buffalo Sabres No. 1 center Jack Eichel requested a trade from the only team he’d ever known a half-decade ago, and his deal represents what could be the ceiling of any Larkin trade package.

Though Eichel’s lingering injury issues clouded his status, he was still a significantly stronger offensive producer than Larkin is, so Red Wings fans should look at the Sabres’ return for Eichel as the high point of what they might be able to expect for Larkin. Buffalo received a young NHL power forward in Alex Tuch who had a 50-plus point season on his resume, as well as a recent first-round pick (Peyton Krebs, who went No. 17 overall in 2019) and conditional first- and second-round picks.

While Eichel’s trade represents the high-water mark for what a Larkin deal might look like, a closer comparable could be the Vancouver Canucks’ trade of J.T. Miller to the New York Rangers back in January 2025. Like Eichel, Miller’s offensive production reached heights Larkin has never been able to manage. The season before he was dealt, Miller produced 37 goals and 103 points.

But in Miller’s case, a rift between Miller and young star Elias Pettersson pressed the Canucks into needing to make the deal. At the time, Canucks president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford even confirmed that the rift between Miller and Pettersson was quickly becoming an untenable situation. That eroded much of the leverage the Canucks had in trade negotiations involving Miller, alongside the full no-move clause in Miller’s contract.

While Larkin also has a no-move clause, and his situation in Detroit isn’t without its own awkwardness, it doesn’t feel as though Detroit is facing quite as much immediate pressure to complete a trade as the Canucks were at the time.

With all of that said, the Canucks were still able to extract an NHL-ready young center (Filip Chytil), a close-to-NHL-ready defensive prospect (Victor Mancini), and a conditional first-round draft choice.

Mancini was a prospect without much pedigree, but his impressive preseason performances suggested potential as a late bloomer. Chytil had impressed at times in New York and even had a 45-point season on his resume, but lingering concussion issues limited his value. Overall, the package the Canucks received for Miller should be seen as the absolute floor for any Larkin deal.

Given the type of teams Larkin has indicated he’d accept a trade to, finding a trade that meets Detroit’s asking price could require some creativity. The Red Wings aren’t likely to want to take too dramatic of a step back in terms of competitiveness, seeing as they have the league’s longest playoff drought as well as multiple prime-aged star players. That means the team with the highest odds of success in chasing Larkin is the one capable of offering the highest-value young player who is capable of stepping into Detroit’s lineup right now.

The Minnesota Wild, who have a massive longstanding need for a true No. 1 center, are reportedly willing to part with talented young forward Danila Yurov in order to acquire a player like Larkin. Other teams interested in Larkin will need to find players of a similar, if not greater, caliber in order to stay in the race for the league’s top trade asset.

With Larkin held out of the lineup until a trade is complete, it seems like the league’s most significant ongoing trade saga is inching closer to completion.