Edmonton Oilers candidates for goal regression

In Edmonton’s case, Zach Hyman is a perfect candidate to produce at an increased goal level. Since joining Edmonton, Hyman has only scored 27 goals or less on one occasion, with this season tied for a career low on the Oilers. What drives Hyman’s success is his propensity to drive the net, targeting the high-danger areas for tap-ins, deflections, and capitalizing on rebounds; highlighted by Hyman leading Edmonton in individual high-danger chances for (iHDCF) by greater than 90 to the next closer Oiler.

If he can get back to the previous two season’s iHDCF levels when on the ice, 226 and 255, respectively, and return to his career average of 13.6% shooting percentage, Hyman is a prime candidate to produce above 27 goals next season.

Two other individuals poised to hopefully not underachieve in the upcoming season are Mattias Janmark and Vasily Podkolzin. Podkolzin is an interesting case because he rode shotgun on Draisaitl’s wing for the majority of the season; even though he underperformed, totaling only eight goals, but in the advanced metrics total 12.6, in part because he tallied the sixth most high-danger chances. Although he continually drove the net, and Draisaitl created the third most rebounds, Podkolzin was unable to connect as often as would of been expected, but could seek the benefits if he maintains placement on Draisaitl’s wing.

Janmark is the first player outside of the top six who is likely to see a positive trend in the upcoming season. Netting only two goals all season, one of which went off his body and not off his stick, a return cannot come earlier with the logjam of forwards vying for a depth spot. In Janmark’s case, this was not only the season with his lowest shot total in the past four years, but also produced his lowest shooting percentage. On a season-long basis, Janmark scored an average of one goal per 40 games played, was below a shot per game (0.64), further complimented by a 3.92% shooting percentage.

Candidates for negative regression

As the chart pinpoints, there is one large outlier in terms of overproduction at all strengths, and that relates to Draisaitl scoring 27 goals above what his expected metric outlines. For argument’s sake, I can never doubt the talent of Draisaitl, but this is only the third season of his career that his shooting percentage is above the 20% benchmark, and 3% greater than his career average.

Relative to previous season’s, Draisaitl’s HDCF metric is down compared to other previous goal season’s, where he totaled 123 and 100, contrasted to the 2024–25 season mark of 84. The expected goal mark of 25 would put him second on the team behind Hyman, but his production on the power play also elevates his expected goal differential. At even strength, the goal differential is down to 20, with actual production of 36 and expected goal total of only 16, all of which hint at potential for a slight down season. But again, doubting his talent and importance on the power play, seems like a difficult bet to make.

Two additional candidates who are likely to see a decrease in goal totals in 2025–26 are Connor McDavid and the now L.A. King, Corey Perry. For Perry, the shooting percentage was 6.1% above his career-norm, which based on his career average and 100 total shots taken, he should only have achieved 13 goals on the season, rather than 19. Not very different than his expected goal mark of 14, which his goal total outperformed by 5.

Similar to Draisaitl, McDavid has outperformed his expected goal total on a yearly-basis, largely in part to his talent and ability to drive the play. In the past five seasons, there has only been one season where McDavid failed to generate less production than his expected goal total.

Although the past season was the closest margin, outperforming by five goals, he did generate the lowest iHDCF, partially due to missing 15 games due to injury, but also incurred a lower shooting percentage, 13.3%, relative to his career average. Compared to Draisaitl, although the chance to negatively regress is unlikely, there still maintains an outside chance it occurs.

Likelihood of regression for the team

As a team, Edmonton—largely in part to Draisaitl’s over-performance—outperformed their advanced metrics, by 29 goals. With the roster turnover and increased speed and playmaking being brought to the team by Matthew Savoie and Isaac Howard, the Oilers can potentially outplay their advanced metrics.

However, if the team’s shooting percentage lessens or they do not finish with the most high-danger chances as a unit compared to the rest of the NHL, the likelihood of Edmonton performing close to the expected seems like an outcome with increase probability.