Examining Potential Canadiens Trade Involving Mike Matheson

And while fans can’t wait to see Lane Hutson take over from Matheson as the team’s No.1 powerplay quarterback, we should probably point out Matheson is the only Canadiens player to rank in the NHL’s top 10 of powerplay scoring since Andrei Markov retired.

I have no doubt Hutson will take over at some point, but having both players in place is one of the main reasons the team improved their powerplay significantly this season. And as we saw while Matheson missed the last two games, adding Hutson to the first powerplay unit isn’t a magic trick that leads to an endless flow of goals.

Cole Caufield scored a powerplay goal on Wednesday night while Hutson was on the ice, but the play had very little to do with No.48’s presence on the first powerplay unit. It was smart decision-making by Juraj Slafkovsky after an overly aggressive shorthanded rush by the Blue Jackets that set up the goal.

That’s not to say Hutson is a bad powerplay quarterback. In the two games in which he was the go-to guy on the man advantage, the Habs produced slightly more shots and scoring chances than they did on average when Matheson is playing.

But it wasn’t a drastic uptick in either case, and it was against two teams that are among the bottom-10 in the NHL for penalty kill efficiency. In other words, we need more data before jumping to conclusions.

For now, Matheson (3.61/60) is producing more points per 60  on the powerplay than Hutson (3.44/60), a good reminder that Matheson has, in fact, been efficient on the powerplay despite his questionable defensive choices in that role. That being said, I’d suggest Hutson would probably improve his stats if he was used on the first powerplay unit with regularity.

Either way, removing Matheson from the equation puts even more pressure on Hutson, and as it stands, he’s the second-busiest player in the lineup, with an average ice time of 23:12 in all situations, good for 29th among all NHL defencemen. He’s also the player that head coach Martin St-Louis relies on most during 5v5 play, as he leads all players, including Matheson and Kaiden Guhle, in average ice time (18:36, 5v5).

I understand that moving Matheson out opens up the door to Hutson playing more often with the man advantage, but there’s a point of diminishing returns when you grind a rookie into dust before he can really find his rhythm in the NHL. Hutson is used to playing 40 or so games in the NCAA, which means his body may hit the proverbial wall in a couple of months, just as Jayden Struble did last year, not to mention hundreds of defencemen before him. Hutson played a lot for Boston University, one of the reasons he’s been able to jump into a hectic situation with a bottom-five team, but most of those minutes in the NCAA were spent in the offensive zone, and when he was defending, he wasn’t dealing with the type of physicality that he’s currently seeing in the NHL.

Hutson is a thoroughbred, and you have to let him run, but the Habs must guard against pushing a young player to the limit from the very get-go, as they risk running into more problems than solutions if Hutson stumbles.

Besides, having Hutson on the ice for more 5v5 ice time than Matheson is a boon for the Habs from a statistical standpoint. And it also allows him to focus on what is arguably his greatest weakness, defending the rush and outworking opponents during 1v1 battles.  We all know Hutson will end up being a great powerplay quarterback, but for now, the Canadiens have a pretty good situation given that they’re a top-10 powerplay team. There’s absolutely no rush to increase the minutes for the youngest and second-busiest defenceman in the lineup.

Simply put, Matheson serves as a fantastic insurance policy as Hutson gets acclimatized to life in the NHL.

His speed has also led to a bevy of high-danger scoring chances for the Habs in recent years, as evidenced by the many highlight clips showing Matheson exiting the zone with speed and control of the puck.

Buyer Interest

At this point, I’ve written over 1000 words praising Matheson’s qualities, which could convey the message that I am against trading him, but that’s not accurate. More than anything, the Matheson section was to point out the Canadiens may end up taking a step back in the short term if they do decide to move on, as it would not only be Hutson who would be forced to play more often, but a few other young defencemen who have struggled this year.

The NHL is a business, and managing asset value is a key part of the equation. Matheson is on the seventh year of an eight-year contract, and though teams traditionally trade for players on expiring contracts to bolster their playoff lineups, I’d expect general managers to see Matheson having an additional year left on a very reasonable contract to be a bonus, not a drawback.

Of course, Matheson is far from elite in his own zone. He’s a rush defenceman, and defensive miscues are fairly common. His usage is one of the biggest issues, as he’s probably best suited to be on the second pairing, which would lead to a lower quality of competition, but the Habs don’t have that luxury. This has led to using Matheson in a role best suited for an $8 million defenceman. Playoff teams, on the other hand, don’t lack a bona fide No.1 defenceman, connoting that Matheson could end up in a situation that’s more conducive to providing solid results.

He’s also capable of playing on both sides of the ice, yet another positive point for teams looking to load up for a healthy Stanley Cup run. I can’t imagine any other defenceman offering more from an offensive standpoint for such a reasonable cost. In other words, the return could end up being very interesting, which is something we’re yet to discuss. It’s a little early to start targeting players, but in this case, a young defenceman ready to play in the NHL would be the ideal return, as a first-round pick would only be useful in a different trade to acquire an NHL-ready player.

Then there’s the matter of the Canadiens having incredibly low odds to make the playoffs this season. Keeping Matheson beyond the trade deadline feels like it would fall within the realm of poor asset management, similar to how Kent Hughes held onto Josh Anderson for much too long, missing out on an opportunity to maximize his asset value.

Moving a good player who is from Montreal, speaks French, and wants to play for the Canadiens is a tough pill to swallow for some, and as a proud Francophone, I understand why. Representation matters, but not to the point that you should shy away from moving a player if a team offers a suitable return. Besides, the general manager and the coach both speak French, and they’re the ones doing most of the communicating with the local community.

Simply put, we can’t ignore what he brings to the table, but those very same positive points are why many teams would be interested in trading for the 30-year-old defenceman.

All signs point to this being the right season to pull the trigger on a Matheson trade.