Explaining the Anaheim Ducks Slump by the Stats

The Anaheim Ducks slump is best understood through expectation, not emotion. Early in the season, Anaheim surged to an 11–3–1 start and climbed to a point where playoff models put them near a 90 percent chance of qualifying. At that moment, the objective was clear. This team was supposed to cruise to ending a seven-year postseason drought.

An Ill-Timed Anaheim Ducks Slump, Expectations Set, then Shattered

Now, the Ducks sit in a very different reality. They have lost nine straight, projection models see them hovering around the playoff bubble at best, and their draft-lottery framing has quietly returned. MoneyPuck currently assigns Anaheim a 6.4 percent chance to win the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes, a jarring contrast to where this season began.

However, the truth sits between those extremes. Anaheim is not the team that stormed through October, and it is not as fundamentally broken as the last three weeks suggest. The problem is that they are trending in the wrong direction at the precise moment when variance stops being forgiving.

The Disconnect Driving the Slump

At five-on-five, Anaheim’s underlying play does not resemble a bottom-five team. In fact, by most territorial measures, they remain above league average. Shot attempts, shot volume, and even expected goals paint a picture of a club that spends more time attacking than defending.

The issue is that results have detached from process. Goals are not following chances. Meanwhile, goals against are arriving in bunches. This gap explains how the Ducks can “feel” competitive while consistently losing games.

Across 45 games, Anaheim owns a 52.0 percent Corsi share and a 51.1 percent shot share at five-on-five. Those are playoff-adjacent numbers. Yet, their actual goal share sits below 47 percent, and the team has been outscored by 17 goals overall. That delta matters.

Low PDO reinforces the story. Anaheim’s 0.979 PDO signals a combination of poor finishing luck and below-expectation save percentage. Over small samples, that can correct itself. Over a month-long stretch, it becomes a standings problem.

Goaltending Is No Longer a Margin Issue

For much of the early season, Anaheim survived defensive chaos because Lukas Dostal erased mistakes, and the Ducks outscored their problems. That safety net has vanished.

According to goal-versus-expected models, Ducks goaltending ranks near the bottom of the league in recent weeks. Dostal and his backups are allowing significantly more goals than shot quality predicts. When paired with a high-event defensive structure, the outcome is predictable.

This is where the slump shifts from unlucky to dangerous. Teams that bleed high-danger chances cannot afford sub-replacement goaltending. Anaheim currently has both. As a result, they lead the league in goals against and are being buried early in games.

The Defensive Numbers Explain the Spiral

Anaheim’s defensive issues are structural and glaring. Per chance data, they allow the most high-danger chances in the NHL and rank near the bottom in overall scoring chances against. The problem is not effort alone. It is coverage, slot protection, and failed exits that leave goaltenders exposed.

First periods tell the story clearly. The Ducks have allowed more opening-frame goals than any other team and have scored first in barely one-third of their games. Playing from behind has become routine, and comeback hockey is not sustainable over 82 games.

This matters analytically because score effects inflate Anaheim’s offensive metrics. Chasing games boosts shot volume, but it does not fix defensive leakage.

Where the Ducks Rank by Key Advanced Metrics

The table below captures the heart of the Anaheim Ducks slump. The process remains competitive. The outcomes do not.

The takeaway is simple. Anaheim is not getting territorially crushed. They are losing the little battles that separate playoff teams from lottery teams.

Why the Early Surge Was Never the True Baseline

It is tempting to frame this season as a collapse. Analytically, it is closer to regression with consequences. The Ducks finished October shooting well above expected while receiving elite goaltending. That combination inflated results without fundamentally changing team defence.

As opponents adjusted, matchups tightened. Leo Carlsson began seeing top defensive pairs nightly. Anaheim’s young defence continued to trade chances. When shooting cooled and saves stopped arriving, the standings corrected violently.

This does not invalidate the progress made by Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, or Beckett Sennecke. It simply means the early win pace overstated readiness.

The Trend Is the Real Problem

The most damning signal is not where Anaheim ranks today. It is where they are heading.

Playoff odds models have fallen sharply. Public perception has collapsed just as quickly. More importantly, the Ducks are burning schedule runway while losing ground to direct competitors. Even if luck stabilizes, the margin for error is gone.

The Ducks are neither as good as they looked in October nor as bad as the current skid implies. However, expectations were established early. This was a playoff-or-bust season.

Right now, the numbers say Anaheim is drifting away from that standard. If the underlying process does not tighten defensively and the goaltending does not rebound soon, regression will not save them. It will simply finalize the verdict on the Anaheim Ducks slump.