Fallout of Canadiens’ Dobson Trade Just Taking Shape

It’s worth noting, Hutson was developing into the Canadiens’ No. 1 defenseman of the future, with only veteran Mike Matheson having gotten more ice time than him (25:05 vs. 22:44) this past season. Dobson clocked in at 23:16 with the Islanders. It’s fairly clear Dobson will become the team’s top-pairing defenseman on the right side. Whether Hutson is going to play on his natural left side or stay on the right, where the Habs played him these past playoffs, he’s dropping down to the second pairing. That still doesn’t take away from his skill or how he’s even more of a lock to develop into an elite talent after his historic season, in which he tied the single-season assists record for a rookie defenseman.

Entering the last season of his entry-level contract, Hutson was eligible to sign an extension as of July 1. So, in his mind at least, you have to believe his eyes widened with dollar signs as his pupils upon seeing the news of Dobson’s new contract. He may not have Dobson’s size at 6-foot-4, 194 pounds (5-foot-9, 162 pounds), but he projects as more of a complete defenseman. Taking into account the fact the Canadiens have already signed core pieces like Nick Suzuki (eight years, $63 million), Cole Caufield (eight years, $62.8 million) and Juraj Slafkovsky (eight years, $60.8 million) to rich deals coming out of their entry-level ones, Hutson is going to get one too. It’s just a matter of when, and Dobson’s is arguably the only contract comparable that matters, even if it’s his third overall.

Elaborating further, it’s incredibly possible Hutson becomes more valuable than Dobson, considering the latter has four years on him and he’s as far ahead of the curve as he is at Age 21. That would conceivably drop Dobson down to the second pairing or perhaps give the Canadiens the luxury of two top pairings they could roll. Whichever way you look at it, Hutson is a No. 1 on paper. He’s going to put his name to paper soon and get paid like one, similar to Dobson.

3. Mike Matheson Becomes Even More Redundant

During his media availability following the first day of free agency, general manager Kent Hughes spoke of the veteran leadership Dobson brought, having been in the league for six seasons already. He also spoke of how much defenseman Mike Matheson means to the team, having ranked No. 1 in ice time, with a single year left on his deal before he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Like Hutson, he was eligible to sign an extension on July 1.

Matheson is also an alternate captain and the only Canadiens defenseman older than 30. So, his veteran leadership is important as well. For Hughes to frame his description of Dobson in that way, it sounds some alarms, even if the Canadiens are reportedly in talks to re-sign Matheson and he wants to stay.

With Hutson emerging as a force, Matheson’s production got halved from a career-high 62 points in 2023-24 to 31 this past season. Dobson’s arrival can really only exacerbate the situation. And, going on just 32, Matheson could still sign a big deal come next July 1 elsewhere, based on how everyone now knows how valuable he can be given plum deployment on the power play. It just doesn’t make sense for the Canadiens to pony up significantly and re-sign him.

2. Patrik Laine Likely Not Long for Montreal

More to the point, it doesn’t make any sense for Matheson to want to re-sign. Even with the increasing salary cap, the Dobson deal makes it hard to envision there a) being enough room to re-sign Matheson to market value and b) him resigning himself to a limited role in his early 30s, when he’s just begun establishing himself as a minute-munching, smooth-skating defenseman with an elite ceiling of 60-plus points. It’s a similar situation with Patrik Laine, even if he’s no longer widely seen as a superstar talent.

It’s easy to forget, Laine’s $8.7 million cap hit had been the highest on the team before Dobson arrived. And, while the Canadiens don’t make the postseason without his team-leading 15 power-play goals (20 total) in just 52 games, his five-on-five play obviously left a lot to be desired, to the point it would be hard for the Habs to justify re-signing the pending unrestricted free agent (2026), when he’ll be just 28 and probably looking for another big deal, despite his lack of defensive awareness and diminished even-strength effectiveness.

Laine’s eventual cap hit could realistically drop. However, even in such an instance, can the Canadiens commit to him, looking at Hutson’s eventual massive extension and the other new deals they’ll have to sign? Also on defense, Arber Xhekaj is hoping to take the next step in a contract year. Up front, the hope is Kirby Dach bounces back from injury and finally establishes himself as a second-line centre, which would also put him in line for a raise next summer. The Habs also acquired Bolduc in the Mailloux trade for a reason. They’ll probably put him a position to build on the 19 goals he just scored as a rookie. They’ll all be RFAs in 2026.

Most significantly, though? Ivan Demidov came over to North America earlier than expected and effectively pushed Laine to the other wing to make room. Based on scouting reports that suggest he’s a 100-plus-point talent, he could push Laine out of the lineup altogether. He must be the priority. And it’s very realistic he’s going to strike it rich too, ahead of when he becomes a restricted free agent in 2027. There’s little room for an in-decline Laine.

1. A Wild-Card Finish May Not Be Enough

It of course remains to be seen if Laine will become more mobile after a full offseason of rest, after having suffered (and come back from) a knee injury last preseason (in the same game as Reinbacher). Maybe the Canadiens do choose to make room somehow, but you’re probably operating under the assumption both he and Matheson are gone after this season.

That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be traded, though. This is a team that has consistently experienced impressive year-over-year growth ever since they finished in last place in 2022. No one really expected them to make the playoffs, with the party line heading into last season having been that the goal was simply for them to be in the mix down the stretch.

If the Canadiens hadn’t have made it, a playoff berth probably would have been the goal in 2025-26. Now that they did, they’re victims of their own success to a degree. Expectations are heightened, especially with the Dobson acquisition.

The Canadiens aren’t necessarily Stanley Cup contenders at this point, but they should be considered a realistic playoff team at least. And playoff teams aren’t known for trading away pending unrestricted free agents who contribute like Laine and Matheson did this past year, even in a reduced capacity relative to in the past. As alluded to earlier, all of a sudden you’re looking at a team that could realistically be playing a one-time 62-point defenseman in Matheson on the third pairing simply due to lack of space. Dobson is the reason for that.

Of course, the Canadiens were probably looking at building on their wild-card finish in 2025-26 anyway. So, Dobson can’t take full credit for that, but Hughes (and Canadiens management in general) can for acquiring him and building a team poised to make a lot of noise this coming season (and postseason). They didn’t just acquire a top-pairing defenseman who recently scored 70 points. They acquired a top-pairing defenseman who recently scored 70 points and is just 25, entering the prime of his career. He’s joining one of the youngest teams to ever make the Stanley Cup Playoffs that is going to get a lot better in the next few seasons. Dobson may not be the only reason for that, but he is a big one.