Finding a solution for the Edmonton Oilers’ top line

As we can see, it’s been a steady decline throughout the season. The trio’s hot start is propping them up if you just look at the full season stats, but if you break it down into dates, you see the true picture.

The drop from the start of 2026 until the Olympics is particularly concerning. The entire roster was scuffling prior to the break, but an 8.52% decrease in CF, and an eye-watering 22.92% drop in raw GF% is a five-alarm fire.

More importantly, they haven’t regained form post-break either. Their GF% has fallen to below 40, and their CF% has yet to break 50. If the Oilers want to go anywhere in April and May, this line can’t keep playing together.

It’s perhaps strange to break up a line with such excellent past results as RNH-McDavid-Hyman, but it’s necessary for this team. So what other options does Edmonton have for top-line deployment?

The answer isn’t Draisaitl

Listen, I’m not going to pretend like the numbers for Leon Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman aren’t sparkling. 61.65 CF%, 53.85 GF%, 65.69 xGF%, and SCF% / HDCF% of 63.12, and 72.58!!! It’s the most lethal super-line in the league. No other team has the luxury of loading two of the five best players alive onto a single unit.

Unfortunately, it completely hamstrings the team in other critical areas, namely, the rest of the forward unit, so it’s a non-option.

Is Matt Savoie the fix?

A solution may have presented itself in the form of one Matthew Savoie. Savoie’s been given more of a shot with McDavid and Hyman on as of late, and although the stats aren’t eye-popping, they are encouraging. In 76 minutes, the trio has a CF% of 46 (not amazing), but a GF% of 57.14, xGF% of 50.09, and SCF% / HDCF% of 47.62 and 48.57.

McDavid and Savoie have begun to build some solid chemistry, and their numbers as a pair are much stronger. In 114 minutes together, they’re sitting at a CF% of 54.59, GF% of 50%, xGF% of 50.09, and SCF% / HDCF% of 47.52 and 48.57. The scoring chances haven’t been coming yet, but they’re controlling Chances For and going even on both raw Goals For and expected Goals For.

Savoie provides a defensive presence that Nugent-Hopkins provided at his best, but hasn’t much this season. I think the best course of action right now is to keep Savoie-McDavid-Hyman together, and let them continue to build chemistry. The scoring chance numbers will improve if they continue to post good results at 5v5.

A total shakeup may be needed

Kris Knoblauch is clearly aware that the top line hasn’t been going. Aside from moving Savoie up, he’s also tried a couple other solutions. One particular one I thought was worth mentioning was keeping Savoie up, but also elevating Vasily Podkolzin against the Florida Panthers last Thursday. The Oilers lost that game decisively, but the Podkolzin-McDavid-Savoie line was the lone bright spot. In 13:28 of ice-time, they posted a CF% of 56.00, xGF of 68.82%, and SCF% / HDCF% of 64.29, and 85.71. They didn’t score any goals, but weren’t scored on either.

It’s a one-game sample size, but those are pretty encouraging numbers. McDavid works best with players who can position themselves well and forecheck the puck. Savoie and Podkolzin both do those things well; however, neither of them score as well as Hyman or RNH, despite Podkolzin’s 16 goals this year. Maybe if they were given more time together, they could improve their finishing skills. If nothing else, it’s another possible solution.

Whether it’s continuing to give Savoie-McDavid-Hyman time, taking both Hyman and RNH off the first line, or some other fix, something needs to be done. RNH-McDavid-Hyman at it’s peak is still a great line. They compliment each other well, have good chemistry, and control the pace of play. That hasn’t been the case since January.

The team has played a lot of hockey over the last two years. I’m sure fatigue, and perhaps the rest of the league figuring out how to counter Edmonton has led to a lack of success. It’s time to give some other options a look, otherwise the Oilers won’t be doing much come playoff time.